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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#691
post #42

Human performance is 85% [1]. o3 high gets 87.5%. This means we have an algorithm to get to human level performance on this task. If you think this task is an eval of general reasoning ability, we have an algorithm for that now. There's a lot of work ahead to generalize o3 performance to all domains. I think this explains why many researchers feel AGI is within reach, now that we have an algorithm that works. Congrat…

Curious about how many tests were performed. Did it consistently manage to successfully solve many of these types of problems?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#692

Earlier quoted context omitted.

some other imporant quotes: "Average human off the street: 70-80%. STEM college grad: >95%. Panel of 10 random humans: 99-100%" -@fchollet on X So, considering that the $3400/task system isn't able to compete with STEM college grad yet, we still have some room (but it is shrinking, i expect even more compute will be thrown and we'll see these barriers broken in coming years) Also, some other back of envelope calculat…

It's also worth keeping in mind that AIs are a lot less risky to deploy for businesses than humans. You can scale them up and down at any time, they can work 24/7 (including holidays) with no overtime pay and no breaks, they need no corporate campuses, office space, HR personnel or travel budgets, you don't have to worry about key employees going on sick/maternity leave or taking time off the moment they're needed mo…

AI has a different risk profile than humans. They are a lot more risky for business operations where failure is wholly unacceptable under any circumstance.

They're risky in that they fail in ways that aren't readily deterministic.

And would you trust your life to a self-driving car in New York City traffic?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#693

I pay for lots of models, but Claude Sonnet is the one I use most. ChatGPT is my quick tool for short Q&As because it’s got a desktop app. Even Google‘s new offerings did not lure me away from Claude which I use daily for hours via a Teams plan with five seats. Now I am wondering what Anthropic will come up with. Exciting times.

What do you use Claude for?

Programming tasks, brain storming, recipe ideas, or any question I have that doesn’t have a concrete, specific answer.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#694
post #689

The first computers cost millions of dollars and filled entire rooms to accomplish what we would now consider simple computational tasks. That same computing power now fits into the width of a finger nail. I don’t get how technologists balk at the cost of experimental tech or assume current tech will run at the same efficiency for decades to come and melt the planet into a puddle. AGI won’t happen until you can fit e…

> take several data center’s worth of compute into a brain sized vessel. So the thing can move around process the world in real time

How so? I'd imagine a robot connected to the data center embodying its mind, connected via low-latency links, would have to walk pretty far to get into trouble when it comes to interacting with the environment.

The speed of light is about three orders of magnitude faster than the speed of signal propagation in biological neurons, after all.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#695

I’m not sure if people realize what a weird test this is. They’re these simple visual puzzles that people can usually solve at a glance, but for the LLMs, they’re converted into a json format, and then the LLMs have to reconstruct the 2D visual scene from the json and pick up the patterns. If humans were given the json as input rather than the images, they’d have a hard time, too.

Yeah, this entire thread seems utterly detached from my lived experience. LLMs are immensely useful for me at work but they certainly don't come close to the hype spouted by many commenters here. It would be great if it could handle more of our quite modest codebase but it's not able to yet

ARC is a silly benchmark, the other results in math and coding are much more impressive.

o3 is just o1 scaled up, the main takeaway from this line of work that people should walk away with is that we now have a proven way to RL our way to super human performance on tasks where it’s cheap to sample and easy to verify the final output. Programming falls in that category, they focused on known benchmarks but the same process can be done for normal programs, using parsers, compilers, existing functions and unit tests as verifiers.

Pre o1 we only really had next token prediction, which required high quality human produced data, with o1 you optimize for success instead of MLE of next token. Explained in simpler terms, it means it can get reward for any implementation of a function that reproduces the expected result, instead of the exact implementation in the training set.

Put another way, it’s just like RLHF but instead of optimizing against learned human preferences, the model is trained to satisfy a verifier.

This should work just as well in VLA models for robotics, self driving and computer agents.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#696
post #689

The first computers cost millions of dollars and filled entire rooms to accomplish what we would now consider simple computational tasks. That same computing power now fits into the width of a finger nail. I don’t get how technologists balk at the cost of experimental tech or assume current tech will run at the same efficiency for decades to come and melt the planet into a puddle. AGI won’t happen until you can fit e…

The concern here is mainly on practicality. The original mainframes did not command startup valuations counted in fractions of the US economy, they did qualify for billions in investment.

This is a great milestone, but OpenAI will not be successful charging 10x the cost of a human to perform a task.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#697

Let me go against some skeptics and explain why I think full o3 is pretty much AGI or at least embodies most essential aspects of AGI. What has been lacking so far in frontier LLMs is the ability to reliably deal with the right level of abstraction for a given problem. Reasoning is useful but often comes out lacking if one cannot reason at the right level of abstraction. (Note that many humans can't either when they…

Have we really watered down the definition of AGI that much? LLMs aren't really capable of "learning" anything outside their training data. Which I feel is a very basic and fundamental capability of humans. Every new request thread is a blank slate utilizing whatever context you provide for the specific task and after the tread is done (or context limit runs out) it's like it never happened. Sure you can use database…

That's true for vanilla LLMs, but also keep in mind that there are no details about o3's architecture at the moment. Clearly they are doing something different given the huge performance jump on a lot of benchmarks, and it may well involve in-context learning.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am interpreting this result as human level reasoning now costs (approximately) 41k/hr to 2.5M/hr with current compute. On a very simple, toy task, which arc-agi basically is. Arc-agi tests are not hard per se, just LLM’s find them hard. We do not know how this scales for more complex, real world tasks.

Right. Arc is meant to test the ability of a model to generalize. It's neat to see it succeed, but it's not yet a guarantee that it can generalize when given other tasks. The other benchmarks are a good indication though.

Does it mean anything for more general tasks like driving a car?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#700

I’m not sure if people realize what a weird test this is. They’re these simple visual puzzles that people can usually solve at a glance, but for the LLMs, they’re converted into a json format, and then the LLMs have to reconstruct the 2D visual scene from the json and pick up the patterns. If humans were given the json as input rather than the images, they’d have a hard time, too.

I think that's part of what feels odd about this- in some ways it feels like the wrong type of test for an LLM, but in many ways it makes this achievement that much more remarkable
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