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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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621–630 of 1001 posts

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#621

Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary. It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life. Tha…

Blaming OpenAI for progress is like blaming a calendar for Christmas—it’s not the timing, it’s your unwillingness to adapt

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#623
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

I feel like more likely a lot of jobs (CS and otherwise ) are going to go the way of photography. Your average person now can take amazing photos but you’re still going to use a photographer when it really matters and they will use similar but more professional tools to be more productive. Low end bad photographers probably aren’t doing great but photography is not dead. In fact the opposite is true, there are millio…

photography is not dead

It very nearly is. I knew a professional, career photographer. He was probably in his late 50s. Just a few years ago, it had become extremely difficult to convince clients that actual, professional photos were warranted. With high-quality iPhone cameras, businesses simply didn't see the value of professional composition, post-processing, etc.

These days, anyone can buy a DSLR with a decent lens, post on Facebook, and be a 'professional' photographer. This has driven prices down and actual professional photographers can't make a living anymore.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#625
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

Full on mechanical engineering needs a body. While there are companies working on embodiment, were not there yet.

It'll be some time before there is a robot with enough spatial reasoning to do complicated physical work with no prior examples.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#626
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

>Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate someone else’s job or be automated yourself.

This has essentially been happening for thousands of years. Any optimization to work of any kind reduces the number of man hours required.

Software of pretty much any form is entirely that. Even early spreadsheet programs would replace a number of jobs at any company.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#627
I’m not sure if people realize what a weird test this is. They’re these simple visual puzzles that people can usually solve at a glance, but for the LLMs, they’re converted into a json format, and then the LLMs have to reconstruct the 2D visual scene from the json and pick up the patterns.

If humans were given the json as input rather than the images, they’d have a hard time, too.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#628
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

I feel like many people are reacting to the string "AGI" in the benchmark name, and not to the actual result. The tasks in question are to color squares in a grid, maintaining the geometric pattern of the examples.

Unlike most other benchmarks where LLMs have shown large advances (in law, medicine, etc.), this benchmark isn't directly related to any practically useful task. Rather, the benchmark is notable because it's particularly easy for untrained humans, but particularly hard for LLMs; though that difficulty is perhaps not surprising, since LLMs are trained on mostly text and this is geometric. An ensemble of non-LLM solutions already outperformed the average Mechanical Turk worker. This is a big improvement in the best LLM solution; but this might also be the first time an LLM has been tuned specifically for these tasks, so this might be Goodhart's Law.

It's a significant result, but I don't get the mania. It feels like Altman has expertly transformed general societal anxiety into specific anxiety that one's job will be replaced by an LLM. That transforms into a feeling that LLMs are powerful, which he then transforms into money. That was strongest back in 2023, but had weakened since then; but in this comment section it's back in full force.

For clarity, I don't question that many jobs will be replaced by LLMs. I just don't see a qualitative difference from all the jobs already replaced by computers, steam engines, horse-drawn plows, etc. A medieval peasant brought to the present would probably be just as despondent when he learned that almost all the farming jobs are gone; but we don't miss them.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#629
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

In 2016 I was asked by an Uber driver in Pittsburgh when his job would be obsolete (I’d worked around Zoox people quite a bit and Uber basically was all-in at CMU.

I told him it was at least 5 years, probably 10, though he was sure it would be 2.

I was arguably “right”, 2023-ish is probably going to be the date people put down in the books, but the future isn’t evenly distributed. It’s at least another 5 years, and maybe never, before things are distributed among major metros, especially those with ice. Even then, the AI is somehow more expensive than human solution.

I don’t think it’s in most companies interest to price AI way below the price of meat, so meat will hold out for a long time, maybe long enough for you to retire even

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#630
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

Always need to believe AI needs to be operated by humans, when it can go end to end to replace a human, you will likely not need to worry about money.
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