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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPQA scores are mostly from pre-training, against content in the corpus. They have gone silent but look at the GPT4 technical report which calls this out. We are nowhere close to what Sam Altman calls AGI and transformers are still limited to what uniform-TC0 can do. As an example the Boolean Formula Value Problem is NC1-complete, thus beyond transformers but trivial to solve with a TM. As it is now proven that the f…

Isn't any physically realizable computer (including our brains) limited to what uniform-TC0 can do?

Neither TC0 nor uniform-TC0 are physically realizable, they are tools not physical devices.

The default nonuniform circuits classes are allowed to have a different circuit per input size, the uniform types have unbounded fan-in

Similar to how a k-tape TM doesn't get 'charged' for the input size.

With Nick Class (NC) the number of components is similar to traditional compute time while depth relates to the ability to parallelize operations.

These are different than biological neurons, not better or worse but just different.

Human neurons can use dendritic compartmentalization, use spike timing, can retime spikes etc...

While the perceptron model we use in ML is useful, it is not able to do xor in one layer, while biological neurons do that without anything even reaching the soma, purely in the dendrites.

Statistical learning models still comes down to a choice function, no matter if you call that set shattering or...

With physical computers the time hierarchy does apply and if TIME(g(n)) is given more time than TIME(f(n)), g(n) can solve more problems.

So you can simulate a NTM with exhaustive search with a physical computer.

Physical computers also tend to have NAND and XOR gates, and can have different circuit depths.

When you are in TC0, you only have AND, OR and Threshold (or majority) gates.

Think of instruction level parallelism in a typical CPU, it can return early, vs Itanium EPIC, which had to wait for the longest operation. Predicated execution is also how GPUs work.

They can send a mask and save on load store ops as an example, but the cost of that parallelism is the consent depth.

It is the parallelism tradeoff that both makes transformers practical as well as limit what they can do.

The IID assumption and autograd requiring smooth manifolds plays a role too.

The frame problem, which causes hard problems to become unsolvable for computers and people alike does also.

But the fact that we have polynomial time solutions for the Boolean Formula Value Problem, as mentioned in my post above is probably a simpler way of realizing physical computers aren't limited to uniform-TC0.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#402

It is not exactly AGI but huge step toward it. I would expect this step in 2028-2030. I cant really understand why people are happy with it, this technology is so dangerous that can disrupt whole society. It's neither like smartphone nor internet. What will happen to 3rd world countries. Lots of unsolved questions and world is not prepared for such a change. Lots of people will lose their jobs I am not even mentionin…

I’m extremely excited because I want to see the future and I’m trying not to think of how severely fucked my life will be.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#403

It sucks that I would love to be excited about this... but I mostly feel anxiety and sadness.

Humanity is about to enter an even steeper hockey stick growth curve. Progressing along the Kardashev scale feels all but inevitable. We will live to see Longevity Escape Velocity. I'm fucking pumped and feel thrilled and excited and proud of our species. Sure, there will be growing pains, friction, etc. Who cares? There always is with world-changing tech. Always.

I agree, save invoking supernatural causes, the human brain is a collection of cells with electro-chemical connections that if fully reconstructed either physically or virtually would necessarily need to represent the original person's brain. Therefore with sufficient intelligence it would be possible to engineer technology that would be able to do that reconstruction without even having to go to the atomic level, which we also have a near full understanding of already.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#404
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say they didn’t need to demo anything, because if you are gonna use the output code live on a demo it may make compile errors and then look stupid trying to fix it live

They actually did that the last time when they showed the apps integration. First try in Xcode didn't work.

Yeah I think that time it was ok because they were demoing the app function, but for this they are demoing the model smarts

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#405

> You'll know AGI is here when the exercise of creating tasks that are easy for regular humans but hard for AI becomes simply impossible. No, we won't. All that will tell us is that the abilities of the humans who have attempted to discern the patterns of similarity among problems difficult for auto-regressive models has once again failed us.

So then what is AGI?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#406

I feel like AI is already changing how we work and live - I've been using it myself for a lot of my development work. Though, what I'm really concerned about is what happens when it gets smart enough to do pretty much everything better (or even close) than humans can. We're talking about a huge shift where first knowledge workers get automated, then physical work too. The thing is, our whole society is built around p…

From IT bubble it’s very easy to have impression that AI will replace most people. Most of people on my street do not work in IT. Teacher, nurse, hobby shop owner, construction workers, etc. Surely programming and other virtual work may become less paid job but it’s not end of the world.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It actually beats the human average by a wide margin: - 64.2% for humans vs. 82.8%+ for o3. ... Private Eval: - 85%: threshold for winning the prize [1] Semi-Private Eval: - 87.5%: o3 (unlimited compute) [2] - 75.7%: o3 (limited compute) [2] Public Eval: - 91.5%: o3 (unlimited compute) [2] - 82.8%: o3 (limited compute) [2] - 64.2%: human average (Mechanical Turk) [1] [3] Public Training: - 76.2%: human average (Mecha…

Super human isn't beating rando mech turk. Their post has stem grad at nearly 100%

This is correct. It's easy to get arbitrarily bad results on Mechanical Turk, since without any quality control people will just click as fast as they can to get paid (or bot it and get paid even faster).

So in practice, there's always some kind of quality control. Stricter quality control will improve your results, and the right amount of quality control is subjective. This makes any assessment of human quality meaningless without explanation of how those humans were selected and incentivized. Chollet is careful to provide that, but many posters here are not.

In any case, the ensemble of task-specific, low-compute Kaggle solutions is reportedly also super-Turk, at 81%. I don't think anyone would call that AGI, since it's not general; but if the "(tuned)" in the figure means o3 was tuned specifically for these tasks, that's not obviously general either.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#408

It is not exactly AGI but huge step toward it. I would expect this step in 2028-2030. I cant really understand why people are happy with it, this technology is so dangerous that can disrupt whole society. It's neither like smartphone nor internet. What will happen to 3rd world countries. Lots of unsolved questions and world is not prepared for such a change. Lots of people will lose their jobs I am not even mentionin…

I hope governments will finally take action.

What action do you expect them to take?

What law would effectively reduce risk from AGI? The EU passed a law that is entirely about reducing AI risk and people in the technology world almost universally considered it a bad law. Why would other countries do better? How could they do better?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#409
post #359

I’m super curious as to whether this technology completely destroys the middle class, or if everyone becomes better off because productivity is going to skyrocket.

> I’m super curious as to whether this technology completely destroys the middle class, or if everyone becomes better off because productivity is going to skyrocket. Even if productivity skyrockets, why would anyone assume the dividends would be shared with the "destroy[ed] middle class"? All indications will be this will end up like the China Shock: "I lost my middle class job, and all I got was the opportunity to b…

Because access to the financial system was democratized ten years ago

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a benchmark, NovelQA, that LLMs don't dominate when it feels like they should. The benchmark is to read a novel and answer questions about it. LLMs are below human evaluation, as I last looked, but it doesn't get much attention. Once it is passed, I'd like to see one that is solving the mystery in a mystery book right before it's revealed. We'd need unpublished mystery novels to use for that benchmark, but I…

Looks like it's not updated for nearly a year and I'm guessing Gemini 2.0 Flash with 2m context will simply crush it

That's true. They don't have Claude 3.5 on there either. So maybe it's not relevant anymore, but I'm not sure.

If so, let's move on to the murder mysteries or more complex literary analysis.

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