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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#331

Just as an aside, I've personally found o1 to be completely useless for coding. Sonnet 3.5 remains the king of the hill by quite some margin

I find myself hoping between o1 and Sonnet pretty frequently these days, and my personal observation is that the quality of output from o1 scales more directly to the quality of the prompting you're giving it. In a way it almost feels like it's become too good at following instructions and simply just takes your direction more literally. It doesn't seem to take the initiative of going the extra mile of filling in the…

Can you solve this by putting your lazy prompt through GPT-4o or Sonnet 3.6 and asking it to expand the prompt to a full prompt for o1?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#332

Very cool. I recommend scrolling down to look at the example problem that O3 still can’t solve. It’s clear what goes on in the human brain to solve this problem: we look at one example, hypothesize a simple rule that explains it, and then check that hypothesis against the other examples. It doesn’t quite work, so we zoom into an example that we got wrong and refine the hypothesis so that it solves that sample. We kee…

I took a look at those examples that o3 can't solve. Looks similar to an IQ-test. Took me less time to figure out the 3 examples that it took to read your post. I was honestly a bit surprised to see how visual the tasks were. I had thought they were text based. So now I'm quite impressed that o3 can solve this type of task at all.

You must be a stem grad! Or perhaps an ensemble of Kaggle submissions?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#333

Congratulations to Francois Chollet on making the most interesting and challenging LLM benchmark so far. A lot of people have criticized ARC as not being relevant or indicative of true reasoning, but I think it was exactly the right thing. The fact that scaled reasoning models are finally showing progress on ARC proves that what it measures really is relevant and important for reasoning. It's obvious to everyone that…

It's the least interesting benchmark for language models among all they've released, especially now that we already had a large jump in its best scores this year. It might be more useful as a multimodal reasoning task since it clearly involves visual elements, but with o3 already performing so well, this has proven unnecessary. ARC-AGI served a very specific purpose well: showcasing tasks where humans easily outperformed language models, so these simple puzzles had their uses. But tasks like proving math theorems or programming are far more impactful.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#334

Congratulations to Francois Chollet on making the most interesting and challenging LLM benchmark so far. A lot of people have criticized ARC as not being relevant or indicative of true reasoning, but I think it was exactly the right thing. The fact that scaled reasoning models are finally showing progress on ARC proves that what it measures really is relevant and important for reasoning. It's obvious to everyone that…

This emphasizes persons and a self-conceived victory narrative over the ground truth. Models have regularly made progress on it, this is not new with the o-series. Doing astoundingly well on it, and having a mutually shared PR interest with OpenAI in this instance, doesn't mean a pile of visual puzzles is actually AGI or some well thought out and designed benchmark of True Intelligence(tm). It's one type of visual pu…

I won't be as brutal in my wording, but I agree with the sentiment. This was something drilled into me as someone with a hobby in PC Gaming and Photography: benchmarks, while handy measures of potential capabilities, are not guarantees of real world performance. Very few PC gamers completely reinstall the OS before benchmarking to remove all potential cruft or performance impacts, just as very few photographers exclusively take photos of test materials.

While I appreciate the benchmark and its goals (not to mention the puzzles - I quite enjoy figuring them out), successfully passing this benchmark does not demonstrate or guarantee real world capabilities or performance. This is why I increasingly side-eye this field and its obsession with constantly passing benchmarks and then moving the goal posts to a newer, harder benchmark that claims to be a better simulation of human capabilities than the last one: it reeks of squandered capital and a lack of a viable/profitable product, at least to my sniff test. Rather than simply capitalize on their actual accomplishments (which LLMs are - natural language interaction is huge!), they're trying to prove to Capital that with a few (hundred) billion more in investments, they can make AGI out of this and replace all those expensive humans.

They've built the most advanced prediction engines ever conceived, and insist they're best used to replace labor. I'm not sure how they reached that conclusion, but considering even their own models refute this use case for LLMs, I doubt their execution ability on that lofty promise.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#335

Direct quote from the ARC-AGI blog: “SO IS IT AGI? ARC-AGI serves as a critical benchmark for detecting such breakthroughs, highlighting generalization power in a way that saturated or less demanding benchmarks cannot. However, it is important to note that ARC-AGI is not an acid test for AGI – as we've repeated dozens of times this year. It's a research tool designed to focus attention on the most challenging unsolve…

> Also, 1 odd thing I noticed is that the graph in their blog post shows the top 2 scores as “tuned” Something I missed until I scrolled back to the top and reread the page was this > OpenAI's new o3 system - trained on the ARC-AGI-1 Public Training set So yeah, the results were specifically from a version of o3 trained on the public training set Which on the one hand I think is a completely fair thing to do. It's re…

Lol I missed that even though it's literally the first sentence of the blog, good catch.

Yeah, that makes this result a lot less impressive for me.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#336
It is not exactly AGI but huge step toward it. I would expect this step in 2028-2030. I cant really understand why people are happy with it, this technology is so dangerous that can disrupt whole society. It's neither like smartphone nor internet. What will happen to 3rd world countries. Lots of unsolved questions and world is not prepared for such a change. Lots of people will lose their jobs I am not even mentioning their debts. No one will have chance to be rich anymore, If you are in first world country you will probably get UBI, if not you wont.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#337

I was impressed until I read the caveat about the high-compute version using 172x more compute. Assuming for a moment that the cost per task has a linear relationship with compute, then it costs a little more than $1 million to get that score on the public eval. The results are cool, but man, this sounds like such a busted approach.

So what? I’m serious. Our current level of progress would have been sci-fi fantasy with the computers we had in 2000. The cost may be astronomical today, but we have proven a method to achieve human performance on tests of reasoning over novel problems. WOW. Who cares what it costs. In 25 years it will run on your phone.

So your claim for optimism here is that something today that took ~10^22 floating point operations (based on an estimate earlier in the thread) to execute will be running on phones in 25 years? Phones which are currently running at O(10^12) flops. That means ten orders of magnitudes of improvement for that to run in a reasonable amount of time? It's a similar scale up in going from ENIAC (500 flops) to a modern desktop (5-10 teraflops).

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#338

It is not exactly AGI but huge step toward it. I would expect this step in 2028-2030. I cant really understand why people are happy with it, this technology is so dangerous that can disrupt whole society. It's neither like smartphone nor internet. What will happen to 3rd world countries. Lots of unsolved questions and world is not prepared for such a change. Lots of people will lose their jobs I am not even mentionin…

> I would expect this step in 2028-2030.

Do you work at one of the frontier labs?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#339
post #246

OpenAI spent approximately $1,503,077 to smash the SOTA on ARC-AGI with their new o3 model semi-private evals (100 tasks): 75.7% @ $2,012 total/100 tasks (~$20/task) with just 6 samples & 33M tokens processed in ~1.3 min/task and a cost of $2012 The “low-efficiency” setting with 1024 samples scored 87.5% but required 172x more compute. If we assume compute spent and cost are proportional, then OpenAI might have just…

Pretty sure this "cost" is based on their retail price instead of actual inference cost.

Yes that's correct and there's a bit of "pixel math" as well so take these numbers with a pinch of salt. Preliminary model sizes from the temporarily public HF repository puts the full model size at 8tb or roughly 80 H100s

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still it's comparing average human level performance with best AI performance. Examples of things o3 failed at are insanely easy for humans.

You'd be surprised what the AVERAGE human fails to do that you think is easy, my mom can't fucking send an email without downloading a virus, i have a coworker that believes beyond a shadow of a doubt the world is flat. The Average human is a lot dumber than people on hackernews and reddit seem to realize, shit the people on mturk are likely smarter than the AVERAGE person

Yet the average human can drive a car a lot better than ChatGPT can, which shows that the way you frame "intelligence" dictates your conclusion about who is "intelligent".
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