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Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

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131–140 of 678 posts

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#131

Maybe a weird question, but how does a capitalist economy work where AGI-performed-labor is categorically less expensive than human-performed labor? Do most people who labor for wages just go unemployed, and then bankrupt, and then die?

The question shows a total disconnect from reality. People who are unemployed with no money today don't die. Even street people don't die.

If AGI labor is cheaper and as effective as human labor, prices will drop to the point where the necessities cost very little. People will be able to support themselves working part-time jobs on whatever hasn't been automated. The tax system will become more redistributive and maybe we'll adopt a negative income tax. People will still whine and bitch about capitalism even as it negates the need for them to lift a single finger.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#132
post #76

People change their minds all the time. What someone wanted in 2017 could be the same or different in 2024?

Sure, but the nuance is Elon only wants what benefits him most at the time. There was no philosophical change, other than now he’s competing.

He's allowed these opinions, we’re allowed to ignore them and lawyers are allowed to use this against him.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#133
post #58

I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…

I remember seeing OpenAI like 10 years ago in GiveWell's list of charities along with water.org, deworm the world 80.000 hours and that kind of things.

It's a wild take to say that they have gotten nowhere and that they haven't found product-market fit.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#134
post #34

Ignoring all the drama, this part is interesting: "On one call, Elon told us he didn’t care about equity personally but just needed to accumulate $80B for a city on Mars."

This made me laugh but also made me think, "...that's it? That's all it takes?"

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That same space company said that they'd do point to point commercial travel using rockets. As for significantly outperforming: Ask NASA, price per launch has gone UP not DOWN. What's the point of reusability if it doesn't affect the bottom line in a positive way?

> The development of commercial launch systems has substantially reduced the cost of space launch. NASA’s space shuttle had a cost of about $1.5 billion to launch 27,500 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), $54,500/kg. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 now advertises a cost of $62 million to launch 22,800 kg to LEO, $2,720/kg. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093 Why do you lie?

Even if true no need to attack a poster

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#136
post #58

I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…

>So far we are multiple years in with much investment and little return, and no obvious large-scale product-market fit

Literally every market has been disrupted and some are being optimized into nonexistence.

You don't know anyone who's been laid off by a giant corporation that's also using an AI process that people did 3 years ago?

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#137
post #121
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So far we are multiple years in with much investment and little return Modern (2024) LLMs are "little return"? Seriously? For me, they've mostly replaced Google. I have no idea how well the scaling will contiue and I'm generally unimpressed with AI-doomer narratives, but this technology is real.

They're not talking about your anecdotes, they're talking about the capex and returns. Which are overwhelmingly negative.

I mean, inference costs have decreased like 1000x in a few years. OpenAI is the fastest growing startup by revenue, ever.

How foolish do you have be to be worrying about ROI right now? The companies that are building out the datacenters produce billions per year in free cash flow. Maybe OP would prefer a dividend?

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#138
post #58

I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…

Nobody seems to remember how the Segway was going to change our world, backed by many of the VC power figures at the time + Steve Jobs.

You mean Steve Wozniak.

Close but no LSD

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#139
post #58

I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…

Nobody seems to remember how the Segway was going to change our world, backed by many of the VC power figures at the time + Steve Jobs.

The Segway was a bit early, and too expensive, but I would defend it... sort of.

Electric micromobility is a pretty huge driver of how people negotiate the modern city. Self-balancing segways, e-skate, e-bike and scooters are all pretty big changes that we are seeing in many modern cityscapes.

Hell, a shared electric bike was just used as a getaway vehicle for an assassination in NYC.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we all remember, and if we forget, we're reminded every time we see them at airports or doing city tours.

I don't think I've seen a Segway in close to ten years. Also I suspect most people under 25 have never even heard of Segway.

One wheels (Segway evolutionary grandchild) are almost as popular as electric skateboards.
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