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Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

theguardian.com

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Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#361

Post by cuuupid »

DiscourseFan wrote: post #334
cuuupid wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At times like this it's helpful to use a simple, three point framework: [1] What do we know? [2] What is noise? [3] What is the boring explanation? For [1], we know there are likely _some_ drones. We know drones are a very hot topic for defense at the moment and that countries are heavily investing in this area. We know that these systems need very heavy testing for coordination, surveillance, etc. and we know that o…

Fort Dix, which is an airforce base, is in New Jersey. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was them. There was an incident some years ago when a very strange supersonic noise blasted out from that area and the government was very quiet about it.

I haven't been highside in almost a year now so I don't purport to know the actual operation behind this, BUT I would place my money on testing surveillance systems and on-device tracking modules. CDAO has been investing very publicly in these areas alongside the Maven program and TF Lima. They need a lot of good data on populated areas to make this work; they also can't risk testing this in warzones where a downed drone will both [1] leak advances in technology we have made since Reapers and [2] expose the on-device models they have in place. Could even be a vendor trying to evaluate their models; there is nothing particularly illegal about these drones.

Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#362

Post by tonyarkles »

Arrath wrote: post #319
_DeadFred_ wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'We don't know what these drones are, where they come from, so we followed one, then we... just stopped following it'. That's not the normal Police/Sheriff response, no. There are multiple New Jersey state government officials that attended this government hearing retelling that the Police/Sheriff said a Police helicopter did just stop following the unknown drone because 'the Police/Sheriff felt unsafe'.

To be fair helicopters are held aloft by man's engineering hubris and blatantly flaunting gravity. Taking a drone to the tail rotor may not be entirely healthy to the crew of the chopper.

Oh, my understanding was that they manage to fly because they’re so ugly that the ground wants nothing to do with them and pushes them away. I stand corrected :D

Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#363

Post by keepamovin »

cuuupid wrote: post #275
guhcampos wrote: post #65

[flagged]

At times like this it's helpful to use a simple, three point framework: [1] What do we know? [2] What is noise? [3] What is the boring explanation? For [1], we know there are likely _some_ drones. We know drones are a very hot topic for defense at the moment and that countries are heavily investing in this area. We know that these systems need very heavy testing for coordination, surveillance, etc. and we know that o…

The problem with the "secret testing over civilian areas" idea is that it's self-contradicting.

So you think the military and intelligence has technology that is so secret they won't admit to it, but they're so uninterested in protecting that they're testing them willy nilly over populated areas??

The other contradiction is risk: so you have an aerial technology test and you do it over US civilian populations and military bases over long periods in large numbers, not caring about risk of an object crashing, nor of triggering a mistaken response or misinterpretation by US or another nation, and without a NOTAM to protect aircraft?

None of that scans.

The other point is this is not limited to New Jersey and the United Kingdom.

Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#364

Post by Terr_ »

wbl wrote: post #129
Terr_ wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that looks pretty damn normal. I mean, what kind of Nefarious Power would send out its Secret Drones with standard wingtip lights and headlights on? Note that in this aviation context, those headlights are more to make the plane itself more visible to everyone else, not to give extra information to its pilot(s). It's hard to make lights bright-enough that they could illuminate something in time for an in-air pl…

That sleigh does have a high visibility red light although the mounting is somewhat unorthodox.

I considered trying some napkin-math for how many calories Rudolph would need to burn running a luciferin reaction like a firefly, but immediately stumbled over the issue of many lumens the FAA would consider acceptable. (Assuming they could be convinced to overlook all the other issues of proper color and signaling etc.)

Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#365

Post by cuuupid »

hshshshshsh wrote: post #358
cuuupid wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At times like this it's helpful to use a simple, three point framework: [1] What do we know? [2] What is noise? [3] What is the boring explanation? For [1], we know there are likely _some_ drones. We know drones are a very hot topic for defense at the moment and that countries are heavily investing in this area. We know that these systems need very heavy testing for coordination, surveillance, etc. and we know that o…

I feel like you already have decided that this is safe and then are using "boring" explanations to back that narrative. This is easy cause nothing bad has happened in a while so it's less cognitive dissonance to go with that narrative. Have you even tried coming up with boring explanations on how this could be not safe? Also why specifically boring explanations? Plenty of incidents have dramatic explanations. How do…

The DoD has very publicly stated that these are safe; I know Americans have a lot of distrust in their military but when it comes to matters of national security and defense the intel community is more or less omniscient.

Knowing the current capabilities of the military, there is also no possibility that this is not safe and yet cannot be handled after this long, which kinda rules out any boring explanation.

When it comes to matters of UFOs, drones, and lights in the sky, it has only ever been a boring explanation. I think people want very much for it to be fantastical, but often times the boring reality is still very dramatic if you step back and consider we're talking about secret testing of highly advanced drones.

Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#366

Post by andrelaszlo »

"a post-Chinese spy-balloon world"

Noticed it because of the typo ("spy-ballon") but realized it's also a pretty funny phrase.

Are we living in a spy-balloon world which is no longer Chinese?

Or maybe in a balloon-world, post the Chinese spy?

Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#367

Post by bhk »

StanislavPetrov wrote: post #323
bhk wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"...without evidence..." What he claimed was "high" (high-level, I assume, rather than intoxicated) and "reputable" sources who needed to remain anonymous told him there was circumstantial evidence of this. I don't see any motive for him to make this up, or for those sources to. Perhaps someone in some agency is jumping to conclusions on partial information. Or perhaps this fits into the pattern of DoD officials, ex-…

>I don't see any motive for him to make this up, or for those sources to. To whip up more hysteria against Iran?

Maybe. There's a pattern there, too. For example:

https://x.com/mtracey/status/1855682527756697724

Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#368

Post by YZF »

talldayo wrote: post #154
dylan604 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

F-16 seems like overkill for a drone. Send up the Apaches. Let's not forget it took how many sidewinders to take down the Chinese balloon? More than 1 makes someone look foolish.

You send in a supersonic fighter because no conventional drone is going to escape it. Dogfighting it isn't necessary, it's doubtful they'd detect you at all if your fighter is loitering at 10,000ft. Eventually the drone is going to run out of power, and you can keep sending more fighters to relieve whichever jet is on duty (if necessary). Apaches are cool and all, but if cost is your concern then it's probably cheape…

Drones are generally too slow and have too small of a radar footprint to engage with a fighter jet. Helicopters are a better tool. Unless they're very large drones than most missiles on the jet won't really be applicable. You can't shoot down a tiny front with radar or heat seeking missiles.

Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#369

Post by senkora »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #272
gradus_ad wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in NJ. I've seen these drones. They are not commercial airliners or helicopters. They are loud, fly low and slow, and make abrupt turns unlike any planes I've seen. Their lights are also very different from other aircraft. I can see how it's tempting to chalk this up to hysteria, but they are absolutely large drones of some kind.

I've been following the story and this has been discussed on the local Reddit subs. They are almost certainly PteroDynamics XP-4 drones flying from and to the military bases in question for testing purposes. There literally was a public demo of them on the USNS Burlington in Philadelphia a year ago.

Video of that model of drone: https://www.reddit.com/r/EngineeringPorn/comments/13juxdi/pt...

Re: Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of emergency'

#370

Post by YZF »

thehappypm wrote: post #330

My father took this picture of a drone in Morris County, NJ. Anyone want to help identify what it is? https://i.imgur.com/Sfet0Ps.jpeg

I'm far from an expert but looks more or less like a garden variety quad-copter. Maybe a somewhat larger one. You guys are really seeing them all over the place? That's the start of a good sci-fi movie. Let's see if we find something out. Is it possible people are just a lot more sensitive to seeing drones that are around anyways?
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