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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#471

Post by tzs »

nradov wrote: post #465
tzs wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia will be desperate to hang on to its naval base at Tartus, but that seems to be wishful thinking, but maybe it can make a deal Do they actually still need it? A quick bit of Googling suggests that the main thing they use it for is supplying arms to Syria, which presumably they will no longer need to do.

Russia had been using their bases in Syria to project power into Africa. https://youtu.be/opT4D9vHSPo

My first thought was can't they just send a couple or so aircraft carrier groups into the Mediterranean and adequately project power into Africa from them...then I looked up Russia's aircraft carriers.

They only have one, which has been having problems and has been out of service since around 2018, with repair being hampered by accidents and embezzlement. It was supposed to finally get back in service this year but that doesn't seem likely.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#472

Post by bigfatkitten »

stogot wrote: post #450
monetus wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was too young at the time, but the perspective here in Tennessee at least is that the wmd allegations were seen as an American and british boondoggle. Were France, Germany, Spain all aboard that train? I thought "the west" had a half hearted push back against the idiocy. Would love to be informed before my Google searches if anyone has their 2¢.

Yes, and iirc it was mostly a single source (spy) lying to the US & Brits

The intelligence assessment agencies largely saw through the bullshit and said as much, but it was politically expedient for Bush, Blair and Howard to go with the lie.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#473

Post by mcmoor »

somedude895 wrote: post #115
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

Anything that weakens Iran and its proxies is good news. They‘ve been the main reason for instability in the region. The cutting of supply routes to Hezbollah is another nail in the coffin for a militia that‘s kept Lebanon from eventually becoming a functional state, instead keeping it in perpetual war or near-war with Israel, which only serves Iran and the people Iran supports financially. Iran has torpedoed any att…

There's a certain Iran enemy that has a much much bigger incentive to prop lots of instability in the region

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#474

Post by somedude895 »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #427
somedude895 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I am aware of the history. But your assertion that only Iran wishes to attack Israel is untrue. Al-Qaedas very foundational idea was to hurt the Saudi government for allying with the US (and by extension Israel). And these rebels are all former Al-Qaeda or worse. You think they will be pro-Western before they will be anti-Israel? It's a very risky gamble to make.

They don‘t have to be pro anything. Al Julani’s family themselves had to flee the Golan heights due to Israel’s occupation, so I doubt they‘ll become best friends. All I‘m saying is it weakens Iran and that‘s a good thing. Few in the area are enthusiastic about Israel, but most of them are at a point where they just want to move on and the biggest hindrance has been Iran and its proxies.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#475

Post by ashoeafoot »

Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote: post #314
roenxi wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. The dust hasn't settled, but my assumption is that the Russians had a sort-of working plan that the Syrian army would do the heavy lifting and Russia would be funnelling in supplies and providing power for key points - following a proxy-war style defensive model. Given the speed and totality of the Syrian army's collapse they didn't really hav…

I also fall into the not fully understanding the dynamics at play here. What happens it the Assad family loses? Who would likely take control? Would this be better or worse for the regular Syrian person?

isis 2.0

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#476

Post by everybodyknows »

farkanoid wrote: post #381
20kleagues wrote: post #111

I would love to hear what the Syrian hacker news community has to say about this. I’m reading so many comments here but not sure how many are from actual Syrians who probably have a deeper understanding and hope/fears about what comes next.

Honestly, my Sunni relatives from Tartus, Homs and Dimashq are elated. My alawite and druz relatives from Tartus and Latakia are almost distraught. There is a massive disparity between the treatment of Alawites/Shiites/Druz and Sunnis in Syria (Re: employment opportunities, etc) I've always heard horror stories about starvation and torture from my father (Sunni) who served over a decade in Hafiz Assads military, as w…

How common is intermarriage between the various sects?

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#477

Post by ashoeafoot »

roenxi wrote: post #309
beretguy wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all Easy. Because russia is all talk and no do. If you punch russia in the face it folds in half.

They're spilling a lot of blood right now because they felt the Ukraine was intolerable. You can accuse them of a lot of things (war crimes and disastrous stupidity among them) but "all talk and no do" is bizarre. On the military front they are responsible for something close to the most doing in Europe since WWII and their pain tolerance in doing has been demonstrated to be remarkably high.

The ukraine.. the ukraine..

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#478

Post by Timber-6539 »

SAI_Peregrinus wrote: post #447
Timber-6539 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your logic posits that the good guys lost i.e Russia & Iran, supposedly fighting terrorists in Syria.

That doesn't mean the good guys lost, just that one set of bad guys lost and another won. As usual.

My light-hearted sarcasm was lost on HN.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#479

Post by scott_w »

severino wrote: post #462
scott_w wrote: post #398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Are you sure about that? When Russia annexed Crimea firing a couple of shots in 2014, we couldn't see all that horror you talk about, so I don't think it would be what would happen. In fact, there's a lot of people in Eastern Ukraine that has been hoping for Russia to start this military operation. OTOH, we have records of killings and rapes by American military personnel in Iraq when the US invaded the country back…

[flagged]
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