I would love to hear what the Syrian hacker news community has to say about this. I’m reading so many comments here but not sure how many are from actual Syrians who probably have a deeper understanding and hope/fears about what comes next.
Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#112Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#113Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…
I don't know that I agree with this characterization. Was Assad particularly stable? Was he able to prevent rebel groups effectively? HTS of today might be different from HTS of the past, but that's very much could be just their propaganda. We'll see. Given "guaranteed evil" vs "probably evil" I'd probably prefer the lesser evil. I very much suspect Russia is fully focused on Ukraine and cannot or will not project fo…
"Was Assad particularly stable?"
Looking at the speed with which the Syrian military now unraveled, the government was an empty shell of its former self.
Russia was in no position to intervene. First, the development was too quick. Second, the best units are on the Ukrainian front and redeploying them would certainly inspire the Ukrainian General Staff to probe the Russian defenses. Third, the Russian general (Kisel) tasked with leading the Syrian detachment was/is an incapable commander, sent there as a punishment.
Russia cannot fight two wars at once.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
A little bit exaggerated. Nothing really happened yet.
The only Near East regime that served as a reliable Russian proxy and military base just collapsed. That's not "nothing". Russian operations in Africa will be seriously complicated by the loss of Syria as a mid-point.
To underline, Syria was Russia's only ally, airbase and warm water port in the region. They have no feasible alternatives.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#115Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…
Anything that weakens Iran and its proxies is good news. They‘ve been the main reason for instability in the region. The cutting of supply routes to Hezbollah is another nail in the coffin for a militia that‘s kept Lebanon from eventually becoming a functional state, instead keeping it in perpetual war or near-war with Israel, which only serves Iran and the people Iran supports financially. Iran has torpedoed any attempts at normalizing relationships between Arabs and Israel even though most in the region just want to move on and prosper. It also weakens Russian influence in the region, who’ve had the same aim as Iran: Sow chaos and destruction to weaken US allies and prevent anyone aligned with the US from taking the lead in the region.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is extremely reductive, the asaad regime ( current and previous ) had to go, they've caused immense pain to syrians since the 80s.. The idea that this is some consorted effort by global hegemony to topple them ignores the effort of the rebels themselves, and how much the war in ukraine have costed russia..
> XYZ just had to go Yes, this worked out so well in the past. You people will definitely never learn. I honestly dread the times when your diplomats turn their gazes on my country.
Have the leaders of your country recently used chemical weapons on women and children, like Assad had? If not you're probably safe.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
> * could this be bad for Ukraine? Possibly, but it also shows how weak Russia is and how limited their presence in Syria was (because they sent everything to Ukraine). Russia can be defeated in Ukraine, but the west will need to step up support.
Since the 2022 Russian invasion, the West has provided 200bn in aid to Ukraine [0]. And Russia has been winning on the ground lately. It seems the West is thinking more aid will not change the outcome, but only diplomacy will. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-...
Russia has not been winning on the ground. It's two and a half years into the war and Russia is still stuck contesting edge territories. Russia has overwhelmingly larger numbers, but with as high as 7:1 casualties to Ukraine and with a significant increase in casualties over the last eight months.
The frontline is stabilized and the ruble is collapsing. What exactly is being won here?
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
> * could this be bad for Ukraine? Possibly, but it also shows how weak Russia is and how limited their presence in Syria was (because they sent everything to Ukraine). Russia can be defeated in Ukraine, but the west will need to step up support.
Since the 2022 Russian invasion, the West has provided 200bn in aid to Ukraine [0]. And Russia has been winning on the ground lately. It seems the West is thinking more aid will not change the outcome, but only diplomacy will. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-...
The western aid was an important lesson on the importance of proper timing for investments: it was always too little to win, but too much to loose outright. Had Ukraine been able to strike with full force from the beginning, the world could look very different right now.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have heard this argument before, but I'm not particularly convinced. Either way pretty much all their pre-war modern equipment has already been destroyed. Now they're fighting with really old stuff like T-55s pulled from storage, newly manufactured equipment, or whatever North Korea thinks it can spare.
Your impression of Russia's war capabilities is vastly mistaken. "According to Joseph Fitsanakis, professor of intelligence and security studies at Coastal Carolina University, “Russian military production is currently outpacing that of the US and all of NATO member states combined. This may be hard to believe, but Russia is obligated to do it if it is going to outpace the support given to Ukraine." Source: https://w…
It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is
1. What is the difference between absolute quantities comparing against all relevant players,
2. How long would it take to bridge the gap at current production rates, and
3. Can that rate of production be sustained long enough for it to alter any fundamentals?
The point to rebut isn’t that Russia is making more, it’s whether they can continue to do so ongoingly before Ukrainian advances, regime falter or economic collapse, US/China step-in, or internal unrest will dramatically weaken or make the current Russian negotiating position untenable.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
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