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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

apnews.com

421–430 of 530 posts

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assad's fall doesn't signify much because we should expect Moscow to prioritize its own backyard.

Syria is Russia's backyard! It is not culturally close like Ukraine, but Syria has been an ally of the Soviet Union and Russia for decades through the Assad family. Nevertheless, Russia clearly chose to stop their support; the Assad regime was cooked.

>Syria has been an ally of the Soviet Union and Russia for decades through the Assad family

I realize that and I realize that this outcome is bad for Moscow, but the Nazis (and others, e.g., the Turks) went through Ukraine to invade Russia whereas no one has ever gone through Syria to get at Russia, so I would expect Moscow to care less about whether the government of Syria is aligned with Moscow than whether the government of Ukraine is aligned with Moscow.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#422

Assad was backed by Iran & Iran has been bad news for that region for some decades. the new coalition is backed by Turkey, and since they share a border it makes a lot more sense than Iran ever did. way too early to say much more right now. next few weeks/months should be interesting though.

This is an absurd oversimplification. Turkey backs two powerful factions. Another powerful faction is one that Turkey wants to eliminate permanently. A third powerful faction is supported by the US, Jordan and others. Then you have the fact that a lot of who Turkey helped are elite salafists who would gladly go to war with them if they had the power to do so.

For reference, can you please name the four or so factions you’re referring to?

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#423

I would love to hear what the Syrian hacker news community has to say about this. I’m reading so many comments here but not sure how many are from actual Syrians who probably have a deeper understanding and hope/fears about what comes next.

Made an account for this. Like another commenter said, you certainly won't get a cross section of "Syrians" here, and even I as a diaspora born in America to Syrian Christian parents can only loosely proxy the "Syrian Response." It's split -- some relatives and family friends have hated Assad for ages before the war (e.g. someone they knew was "arrested", they got property essentially taken from them, etc.)

Overall, though, there's a lot of fear. Just recently family of mine were going to visit for medical/humanitarian reasons, but now won't any time soon. We all know people there who've been struggling economically for years with the sanctions, but there's a different feel when this sort of ambiguous future violence looms. I'd disagree with other commenters stereotyping "most Syrians are celebrating", it does vary with a spectrum of wanting "stability" and wanting "freedom". farkanoid's stuff about torture and the mukhabaraat (never seen that mentioned in English!), can somewhat confirm, but am personally further away from that since I haven't been to Syria since the war started. The most definitive thing to say is the variance in Sryians' responses is not completely explained by their ethnicity or religion, and that just like any political people, their feelings come less from geopolitical simulations and staring at battle maps, more from their history and connections.

I'm not qualified to give predictions. I mostly wrote this comment to demonstrate that there are sort of Syrians on this website, not to give detailed political analysis. And finally, the sample you see here ARE sort of the "elite" that aprilthird2021 mentioned -- my people are Christian doctors, and farkanoid's Alawite relatives I'm guessing are more well off than the median.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#424
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is 1. What is the difference between absolute quantities comparing against all relevant players, 2. How long would it take to bridge the gap at current production rates, and 3. Can that rate of production be sustained long enough for it to alter any fundamentals? The point to rebut…

Ongoingly is not a word.

OED has it https://www.oed.com/dictionary/ongoingly_adv?tl=true

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do people here think an Islamist government will be also anti-Iran? They have 99% of the same goals with Assad out of the picture. There's a ton of other wrong in your comment (as if Hezbollah, alone, hindered Lebanon from being a functional state and not the decades of war and brutal massacres of their civilians), but let's focus on the main thing.

Basic psychology. Iran has tried to kill these rebel forces since the Arab Spring, and now you think they will suddenly become friends of Iran once in power? Not going to happen. As far as Lebanon goes, decades of wars are mainly a result of Lebanon's dysfunctional sectarian political system. But having Hezbollah run around and exchange fire with Israel doesn't improve the already bad situation.

But basically psychology vs the core of their foundational ideology? Idk, their ultimate goals are clearly similar to Iran's. Former enemies have become allies many times in this region.

Decades of wars have nothing to do with Israel invading the country and installing the extreme right wing Fascist inspired Phalange party into power after 1982? The very event which led to the founding of Hezbollah? Okay

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what I'm thinking too. But if that's true, it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. In any case, this seems like a major loss for Russia.

> it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. Yes, and this point has been obvious to many for the last two years. The problem has been the west drip feeding aid into the largest war since WW2. We actually have to define the objective as reclaiming all Ukranian territory (at least to the pre-2022 borders) and supply them appropriately. It might be expensive in the short-term but we can aff…

Something I've always been confused about is where are these Russian assets to seize? Are there just yachts sitting off the coast of Ukraine? Russian investments in businesses? Or, would it come after a peace deal where the Russian government pays reparations for the war?

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do people here think an Islamist government will be also anti-Iran? They have 99% of the same goals with Assad out of the picture. There's a ton of other wrong in your comment (as if Hezbollah, alone, hindered Lebanon from being a functional state and not the decades of war and brutal massacres of their civilians), but let's focus on the main thing.

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I am aware of the history. But your assertion that only Iran wishes to attack Israel is untrue. Al-Qaedas very foundational idea was to hurt the Saudi government for allying with the US (and by extension Israel). And these rebels are all former Al-Qaeda or worse.

You think they will be pro-Western before they will be anti-Israel? It's a very risky gamble to make.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#428
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you insist that it will go the way of Libya? The rebels are calling for a peaceful and democratic transition of the government and the protection of all minorities. They've stopped using Islamist rhetoric for almost 10 years. This is as good of a regime change in Syria as it gets.

There is no counter-example of thriving democracies developed after western regime change projects. On the other hand, there’s Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.

Tunisia

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do people here think an Islamist government will be also anti-Iran? They have 99% of the same goals with Assad out of the picture. There's a ton of other wrong in your comment (as if Hezbollah, alone, hindered Lebanon from being a functional state and not the decades of war and brutal massacres of their civilians), but let's focus on the main thing.

Iran are shia and the rebels are sunni - two groups that hate each other and have been battling each other throughout the middle east.

Hamas is Sunni and Iran is Shia. Sunni and Shia don't really matter in these contexts. And if you think Islamist rebels hate Shias more than they hate Israel and the USA, it's a toss-up, imo

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#430
post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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If the examples springing to mind were in 1945 then that says a lot about how US efforts are going in the modern era. There is no real comparison to how the US handled defeated powers in WWII and how the State Department handles regime changes from ... I want to say the 60s onwards. All the people involved in Germany or Japan's reconstitution are dead (Ed Deming, we miss you; heros of the peace are the most impressiv…

The modern Balkans seem better now than they were at the early ‘90s.
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