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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#381

Post by farkanoid »

20kleagues wrote: post #111

I would love to hear what the Syrian hacker news community has to say about this. I’m reading so many comments here but not sure how many are from actual Syrians who probably have a deeper understanding and hope/fears about what comes next.

Honestly, my Sunni relatives from Tartus, Homs and Dimashq are elated. My alawite and druz relatives from Tartus and Latakia are almost distraught.

There is a massive disparity between the treatment of Alawites/Shiites/Druz and Sunnis in Syria (Re: employment opportunities, etc)

I've always heard horror stories about starvation and torture from my father (Sunni) who served over a decade in Hafiz Assads military, as well as constant fear of the "Mukhabaraat" (government informants), leading to huge amounts of self-censorship when speaking on the phone or in public.

My alawite/druz relatives are generally well off and would tell me "eh, it wasn't so bad", despite having the same informant fears and self-censoring

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#382

Post by jakjak123 »

Gud wrote: post #357
fooker wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately, to get Russia closer to a total collapse rather than a quick loss for them to retreat and build up their strength again for the next 20ish years to repeat it. It’s not ideal for Ukraine right now.

This is giving too much credit to the competence of the same political leadership that has spent the last 30 years dismantling the European war machine(that was pretty solid up until the mid 90s) while Russia and China has been arming themselves to the teeth.

I concur, the slow drip feeding is adequately explained by coming from a place of war ineptitude and domestic priorities rather than a conscious strategy.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#383

Post by trogdor »

sgt wrote: post #270
otherme123 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. Russia is a country with a modest GDP. They are very close to Mexico or Brazil both in GDP and population. We wouldn't be surprised that Mexico couldn't hold multiple wars

GDP is almost irrelevant when it comes to Russia's true strength and persistence. It's true however that winning a war is incredibly difficult, and the outcome could still be the same for Russia, if their GDP was increased by an order of magnitude. Russia also has a unique ability to turn the entire economy into a sort of "war economy". That hasn't really been done yet.

> Russia also has a unique ability to turn the entire economy into a sort of "war economy". That hasn't really been done yet.

Would you explain what you mean by this and why you believe it to be true?

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#384

Post by codedokode »

guerrilla wrote: post #262
j_maffe wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HTS has cut off ties with ALQaeda and IS since almost 10 years.

[flagged]

"Soviet Union" means the Union of (16) Soviet Socialistic Republics. It's an abbreviation. The republics originally were parts of Russian Empire, so their status was raised, at least nominally (because revolutioners, including Lenin, condemned imperializm and conquesting other nations - something that was considered perfectly normal in the West at the time).

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#385

Post by KptMarchewa »

brabel wrote: post #101
postingawayonhn wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have heard this argument before, but I'm not particularly convinced. Either way pretty much all their pre-war modern equipment has already been destroyed. Now they're fighting with really old stuff like T-55s pulled from storage, newly manufactured equipment, or whatever North Korea thinks it can spare.

Your impression of Russia's war capabilities is vastly mistaken. "According to Joseph Fitsanakis, professor of intelligence and security studies at Coastal Carolina University, “Russian military production is currently outpacing that of the US and all of NATO member states combined. This may be hard to believe, but Russia is obligated to do it if it is going to outpace the support given to Ukraine." Source: https://w…

Their "production" includes restoring stuff from the soviet equipment bases. When they make stuff from scratch, they are as much drip-feeding as west is, or even less - for example they make 6-8 Su-34s a year, while Lockmart is making 156 F-35s a year.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#386

Post by KptMarchewa »

nwatson wrote: post #281
paxys wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. Is it really? Russia literally has to rely on North Korean soldiers to continue their own "special operation" a few miles away. Their power projection ability is now zero.

They haven't yet forced conscription. There's plenty of manpower available to Russia through this very unpopular measure. If pressed they'll do it, the question will be whether Putin survives the young people of Moscow and St Petersburg joining the meat waves.

They critically lack the manpower in the economy, and have to replace all the imports that closed due to sanction. And inflation is already running rampant.

They maybe can do the good old Goebbels "total war" and stop producing consumer goods, but not sure if that's something they want to do.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#387

Post by tacon »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #336
lolinder wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. It has been incredibly frustrating to watch the modern appeasement movement repeat the mistakes of the 1930s. You cannot appease an expansionist power that's intent on restoring the glory of an empire from days gone by (real or imagined).

Few believe Russia would risk expansion into nato territory.

One report from early in the first Trump administration (possibly apocryphal) was when Trump was being briefed about NATO commitments to defend all member countries. Trump supposedly was surprised that the US was committed to going to war with Russia if they invaded Latvia. The Baltic countries are very exposed and could be reached by land only through a narrow gap with Poland.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#388

Post by KptMarchewa »

GordonS wrote: post #316
phsau wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/39... The DoD says North Korean soldiers are already in Kursk and preparing? News of NK armament deliveries and use is old at this point and not debatable. Is the DoD spreading fake news? Just because they haven't seen front-line combat _in Ukraine_ doesn't mean Russia isn't using NK assets.

Yes? Hasn't the DoD also maintained the line that there are no US forces in Syria for years too? It's really not so surprising that they'd lie.

No, they haven't.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#389

Post by KptMarchewa »

Eumenes wrote: post #368
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" not really sure who's worse" What is the hot take on the rebels.? Are these the ones the US was backing a few years ago against ISIS? Is this another case of the replacement is worse? Or not? Assad was so bad for using chemical weapons on citizens, the US couldn't conceive of worse? But is that true?

> Assad was so bad for using chemical weapons on citizens Thats fake/contested https://x.com/scotthortonshow/status/1863289718890193160

Stop reading russian propaganda. There's zero truth in that word salad.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#390

Post by mahirsaid »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #14
sydd wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is putting everything it has to the Ukrainian front since 2.5 years and signs of exhaustion are clearly visible. They have lived up their Soviet tank reserves, are offering astronomical amounts of money for soldiers, are using north Korean ammunition, huge inflation etc

That's what I'm thinking too. But if that's true, it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. In any case, this seems like a major loss for Russia.

This is the result of allies helping Ukraine I don’t think they have any interest in Ukraine, but the alternative is Russia seizing Ukraine. This would have been possible 6 months after the war started. Remember that more than half of Ukrainians are not technically supporting zelensky. This conflict like many others is over complicated yet it's simplified in the west.
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