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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

apnews.com

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#161

Post by guerrilla »

theLegionWithin wrote: post #121

Assad was backed by Iran & Iran has been bad news for that region for some decades. the new coalition is backed by Turkey, and since they share a border it makes a lot more sense than Iran ever did. way too early to say much more right now. next few weeks/months should be interesting though.

This is an absurd oversimplification. Turkey backs two powerful factions. Another powerful faction is one that Turkey wants to eliminate permanently. A third powerful faction is supported by the US, Jordan and others. Then you have the fact that a lot of who Turkey helped are elite salafists who would gladly go to war with them if they had the power to do so.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#162

Post by nabla9 »

Assad dynasty was just a symptom of the problems in Syria.

Syria is a Sunni majority country. During the Assad dynasty Alawite minority (population 2-3 million) was the ruling ethnic class in Syria. They have their own sect of Islam (Alawism). Alawites were stuck with Assad family even if they came from competing factions. If Assad falls, they get massacred.

The insurgents fight under the flag of Syrian National Army, backed by Turkey, but the fighting has been mostly led by jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS).

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#163

Post by aprilthird2021 »

Simon_ORourke wrote: post #133
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

> * how will Turkey negotiate with this facing the pkk and Kurdish nationalism? Hopefully Turkey does the honorable thing, recognizes an independent Kurdish state and apologizes for decades of oppression, murder and state-sanction terror? Unlikely though.

It's surprising to me that many here in HN see Turkey as the state terrorists over the Kurds, when the main party of Kurdish independence from Turkey is a literal terrorist group who committed a terrorist attack killing innocent civilians in Turkey just over one month ago!

It feels to me that when HNers agree that a people should be sovereign (the Kurds), they ignore the terrorism. When they don't agree (the Palestinians), the terrorism takes center stage.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#164

Post by throwup238 »

blub wrote: post #140
j_maffe wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you insist that it will go the way of Libya? The rebels are calling for a peaceful and democratic transition of the government and the protection of all minorities. They've stopped using Islamist rhetoric for almost 10 years. This is as good of a regime change in Syria as it gets.

There is no counter-example of thriving democracies developed after western regime change projects. On the other hand, there’s Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#165

Post by vFunct »

somedude895 wrote: post #115
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

Anything that weakens Iran and its proxies is good news. They‘ve been the main reason for instability in the region. The cutting of supply routes to Hezbollah is another nail in the coffin for a militia that‘s kept Lebanon from eventually becoming a functional state, instead keeping it in perpetual war or near-war with Israel, which only serves Iran and the people Iran supports financially. Iran has torpedoed any att…

[flagged]

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#166

Post by aprilthird2021 »

20kleagues wrote: post #111

I would love to hear what the Syrian hacker news community has to say about this. I’m reading so many comments here but not sure how many are from actual Syrians who probably have a deeper understanding and hope/fears about what comes next.

Most Syrians don't speak English and aren't here. Only a very small elite of Syrians will ever really be accessible to you. But even that perspective can be valuabl

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#167

Post by j_maffe »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #156
j_maffe wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HTS was at some point related to al-Qaeda. This hasn't been the case for almost 10 years. The biggest sign that this isn't only appearances is that they've pivoted from religious rhetoric to that of liberation. I don't care who the US has a price on. It's not a sign of anything at this point.

Religious rhetoric is the rhetoric of liberation to the people who believe in that religion. Only to outsiders does it seem different, and that's partly why they do it. For the record, I think Assad gone is a win no matter who takes over. I think democracy ultimately is better than brutal suppression, even if it means a country aligns away from my own in the process.

> Religious rhetoric is the rhetoric of liberation to the people who believe in that religion.

That's a blanket statement that's simply untrue. There are plenty of Muslims (arguably the majority) who believe religion shouldn't play a role in politics. Syrians are considered generally leaning towards secularism.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#168

Post by 20kleagues »

someotherperson wrote: post #122
20kleagues wrote: post #111

I would love to hear what the Syrian hacker news community has to say about this. I’m reading so many comments here but not sure how many are from actual Syrians who probably have a deeper understanding and hope/fears about what comes next.

“Actual Syrians” isn’t a thing for this — it’s like wanting to hear from ‘actual Americans’ what they thought of the US election. Depending on the ethnicity, religion and politics of those Syrians you’ll get wildly different views.

And those different (or similar) views are what would be important and what I would be interested to read. Because the views of the people from that land are what matter the most during these events.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#169

Post by j_maffe »

MoreMoore wrote: post #151
j_maffe wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was under a repressive dictatorship with crumbling infrastructure. Sure, it can always be worse, but the people deserve and are capable of so much better.

[flagged]

> There's not even any hope of it.

I love it when online commenters display more confidence in their opinions than experts in the field. Really shows how much value their opinion has.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#170

Post by j_maffe »

lukan wrote: post #130
j_maffe wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was under a repressive dictatorship with crumbling infrastructure. Sure, it can always be worse, but the people deserve and are capable of so much better.

"Sure, it can always be worse" Yes, I would argue the islamic state was indeed worse. And so far I see nothing preventing them or a similar force taking hold again. I mean turkey is the moderating factor here and turkey under Erdogan has gone the authorian islamic way since a while.

Drawing analogies between Erdogan and the IS is wild.
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