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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#101

Post by brabel »

postingawayonhn wrote: post #51
fooker wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately, to get Russia closer to a total collapse rather than a quick loss for them to retreat and build up their strength again for the next 20ish years to repeat it. It’s not ideal for Ukraine right now.

I have heard this argument before, but I'm not particularly convinced. Either way pretty much all their pre-war modern equipment has already been destroyed. Now they're fighting with really old stuff like T-55s pulled from storage, newly manufactured equipment, or whatever North Korea thinks it can spare.

Your impression of Russia's war capabilities is vastly mistaken.

"According to Joseph Fitsanakis, professor of intelligence and security studies at Coastal Carolina University, “Russian military production is currently outpacing that of the US and all of NATO member states combined. This may be hard to believe, but Russia is obligated to do it if it is going to outpace the support given to Ukraine."

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/2/russia-races-ahead-...

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#102

Post by ssijak »

otherme123 wrote: post #68
mongol wrote: post #4

Who are likely to control Syria now? Will Syria become an islamic state?

If we look at what happened in Tunisia or Libya after they got rid of their secular dictators (Gadaffi an Ben Ali), it doesn't have to be that way. They were also fears of them becoming islamic states, yet they didn't. If we look at Egypt, they could become again a dictatorship.

Are you suggesting that Lybia is better now for the average citizen then before or?

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#103

Post by inglor_cz »

csomar wrote: post #72

[flagged]

Is a secular dictatorship that tortures its opponents any better than a theocracy that tortures its opponents?

If your balls are getting crushed by the secret police, does it really matter if they do so in the name of Allah or Assad?

I am as secular as they come, but I see no difference here. The root problem for me is the tyranny itself, and not its particular ideological flavor.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#104

Post by teractiveodular »

davidgay wrote: post #52
pugio wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't seen any indication that Israel plans on invading Syria, nor can I see a particular reason for them doing so.

Hmm - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights ? [Not that I'd take this as having any new impact on the current situation, but...]

The Golan is firmly under Israeli control already and has been for half a century, they don't need to "invade" it anymore.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#106

Post by j_maffe »

dyauspitr wrote: post #80
j_maffe wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a secular government that allowed ... to live there. "live" is a strong word to use there.

Syria wasn’t a particularly shitty place before all this began in 2013.

It was under a repressive dictatorship with crumbling infrastructure. Sure, it can always be worse, but the people deserve and are capable of so much better.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#107

Post by throwup238 »

tptacek wrote: post #48
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

I don't know that "what kind of news is it" is the right way to look at this. Things happen, without a reckoning of whether they are convenient or inconvenient to the most powerful military forces in the world. The people who just overthrew the Ba'athists are Salafists; their leader has (had?) a $10MM price on his head from the US for leading the al-Nusra front, which was (is?) al-Qaeda in Syria, and was almost a com…

> The people who just overthrew the Ba'athists are Salafists; their leader has (had?) a $10MM price on his head from the US for leading the al-Nusra front, which was (is?) al-Qaeda in Syria, and was almost a component of ISIS (HTS => IS-Ish).

The Salafists (HTS) sparked this series of events with the November 27 offensive and cut off Hama but the Southern Front and US backed SFA forces were the ones to actually capture Damascus.

Who overthrew Assad is debatable but the former Al Qaeda affiliate isn’t in control of the capitol. Between the SFA and SDF, they’re only one voice at the table.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#108

Post by j_maffe »

ssijak wrote: post #93
j_maffe wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a secular government that allowed ... to live there. "live" is a strong word to use there.

Yes, it must be much better now after all the devastation. Same with Lybia, much better place now, no?

Why do you insist that it will go the way of Libya? The rebels are calling for a peaceful and democratic transition of the government and the protection of all minorities. They've stopped using Islamist rhetoric for almost 10 years. This is as good of a regime change in Syria as it gets.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#109

Post by HideousKojima »

bbor wrote: post #28
throwup238 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has…

Any regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one! The future is uncertain, but it's not like "everyone chills out and gets into their hobbies" was an option -- it's gotta be one of the most war-ravaged places to exist in human history.

>Any regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one!

Overthrowing Gaddafi didn't make Libya a better place. Now it has open air slave markets, amongst other loveliness.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#110

Post by teractiveodular »

asimpletune wrote: post #75

What are the chances the Kurds will get their own land out of this?

The best case is that northern parts of Syria end up like Iraqi Kurdistan, where they will de facto control a slice of the country.

However, Turkey to the north is really not keen on the Kurds having any territory, so they'll do whatever they can to frustrate this.

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