Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals • Hacker News Board

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#891

Post by sourcepluck » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:08 PM UTC

lifeisstillgood wrote: post #201

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

I think it was in the book "Cypherpunks" (the one with Julian Assange, Jacob Appelbaum, Andy Müller-Maguhn and Jérémie Zimmermann) where one of them said something about the last few decades with the move to total dependence on digital technologies in so many ways, and it being the largest transfer of power in the history of the species.

If someone has the exact quote, I'd welcome it...

Anyway, the idea stuck with me. Anyone who wants to reject the point will have an easy time as it's such a broad claim, but I think it's worthy of reflecting on, and perilous to ignore.

There's a lot of ink splattered about technology these days, of course, but it's still rare enough that the larger picture of what's going on historically in terms of power structures is seriously reflected on.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#892

Post by 0xBDB » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:10 PM UTC

pests wrote: post #345

0xBDB wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Business law is a state issue in the U.S. The reason that the U.S. has one set of legislation (more or less) is that 50 states (well, 49) have voluntarily adopted the Uniform Commercial Code. There is absolutely nothing stopping Europe from doing the same or similar except lack of political will.

Which state hasn't? I thought all states have adopted it with their own variations / changes.

Louisiana. I guess it's difficult to reconcile parts of it with the Code Napoleon. All other states have English common law as the basis of their legal systems.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#893

Post by skirge » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:10 PM UTC

badmintonbaseba wrote: post #765

skirge wrote: post #671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you hired care assistant then you have time for some other activities like work which is more profitable than cost of care assistant thus economy has more goods. Life expectancy lowers when young people die, most often in work accidents which is related to low unemployment.

Your argument hinges on my work being more profitable than a care assistants. While that's maybe true, the difference showing in GDP is not the difference of profitability or "value" in our work. What if I'm a care assistant myself? Imagine two care assistants and two scenarios: 1. They are working from Monday to Saturday. They can't take Saturday off, so they hire a care assistant to take care of their grandma on Sa…

yes, there are people who can benefit from their own skills. GDP measures what is taxable rather than peoples wealth or well-being.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#894

Post by sourcepluck » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:12 PM UTC

chmod775 wrote: post #358

slibhb wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. I don't really understand what you mean. While their reach is global, it's largely American companies that are creating the tech value, no?

They're creating "value" the same way the British Empire did for China around 1800. It's almost 1:1 the same dynamic. Bad decision-making of individuals is exploited to make them act against the best interests of their country and ultimately themselves, causing money to flow outwards in exchange for virtually nothing, which is then used to import things of actual value from the hapless victims. A modern twist on this…

Excellent analysis, would absolutely read more. Have you any more juice along these lines? Yourself, or others. Thanks.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#895

Post by skirge » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:12 PM UTC

ThunderSizzle wrote: post #692

skirge wrote: post #671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you hired care assistant then you have time for some other activities like work which is more profitable than cost of care assistant thus economy has more goods. Life expectancy lowers when young people die, most often in work accidents which is related to low unemployment.

My wife had a good job. She made the median household income in the area on her salary alone (my salary was still better, but that's beside the point). When we had our second kid, the hustle wasn't worth it. Two kids in daycare took 90% of her take home pay. It was costing us more for her to work than to stay home with the kids. Also, kids need their parents. An infant being away from their mom for that long is unhea…

It's a choice, economy is about choices and math (staying at home cost < cost of kindergarten) is the tool. (in EU you may prefer to go to work because additional income is that time is added to retirement, even if money is low it has some value).

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#896

Post by ToDougie » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:25 PM UTC

matthewdgreen wrote: post #863

_1tem wrote: post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

I'm not saying the economy is good. But according to polling, many folks who said the economy was "poor" before the November election now believe it's doing great. All in a very partisan fashion, of course: https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/blog_mi...

I don't know a single person in my sphere who feels this way. I think the common sentiment is things will probably improve and the stock market is up. Would be curious to see how UoM did their polling. Does answering truthfully about the state of the stock market indicate that you think that the economy is doing better?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#897

Post by troyvit » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:27 PM UTC

commandlinefan wrote: post #877

matthewdgreen wrote: post #863

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying the economy is good. But according to polling, many folks who said the economy was "poor" before the November election now believe it's doing great. All in a very partisan fashion, of course: https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/blog_mi...

Not to put words in your mouth, but this comment seems to imply that politicians successfully painted a negative picture of the economy that didn't reflect reality and used that to win the last election. While I wouldn't put that past them, why was it successful this time and not every time? Nobody even tried to pretend the economy was bad when Clinton, Bush or Obama were up for re-election, because it obviously wasn…

My guess is that journalism failed this election and social media won it.

* Advertising is failing for news sites, so paywalls are becoming the new thing. Those are a barrier to entry for most potential readers.

* As one of the largest social media platforms, X did made two key moves. First, they limited reach for users who share external links.[1] That breaks news sites' revenue and readership models. Second, the CEO of X came out as a massive Trump amplifier on that platform. Neither of these things limited users' access to information, but it deeply affected their access to truth.

* At the same time Meta backed completely out of the "breaking news" business (maybe on both FB and Threads ... I don't keep track that well).

* Trust in MSM was already declining.

Once the fourth estate was hobbled, social media, podcasts and chat platforms became the dominant means for storytelling. Not only were the Democrats not getting their act together on those platforms, but neither was the press.

Personally? Measured by the number of homeless people I see around me I think the economy is still pretty crappy even though my stock and crypto portfolio is doing great.

[1] https://techround.co.uk/news/musk-limiting-external-links-x/

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#898

Post by ToDougie » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:27 PM UTC

commandlinefan wrote: post #877

matthewdgreen wrote: post #863

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying the economy is good. But according to polling, many folks who said the economy was "poor" before the November election now believe it's doing great. All in a very partisan fashion, of course: https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/blog_mi...

Not to put words in your mouth, but this comment seems to imply that politicians successfully painted a negative picture of the economy that didn't reflect reality and used that to win the last election. While I wouldn't put that past them, why was it successful this time and not every time? Nobody even tried to pretend the economy was bad when Clinton, Bush or Obama were up for re-election, because it obviously wasn…

iirc Trump campaigned on the sluggishness of the Obama-era economy. It was characterized as burdened and shackled, but not downright terrible.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#899

Post by themacguffinman » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:27 PM UTC

commandlinefan wrote: post #877

matthewdgreen wrote: post #863

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying the economy is good. But according to polling, many folks who said the economy was "poor" before the November election now believe it's doing great. All in a very partisan fashion, of course: https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/blog_mi...

Not to put words in your mouth, but this comment seems to imply that politicians successfully painted a negative picture of the economy that didn't reflect reality and used that to win the last election. While I wouldn't put that past them, why was it successful this time and not every time? Nobody even tried to pretend the economy was bad when Clinton, Bush or Obama were up for re-election, because it obviously wasn…

There's an ongoing trend of increased polarization, you shouldn't assume that politics and partisanship is the same as 20 years ago.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#900

Post by cheema33 » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:30 PM UTC

commandlinefan wrote: post #877

matthewdgreen wrote: post #863

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying the economy is good. But according to polling, many folks who said the economy was "poor" before the November election now believe it's doing great. All in a very partisan fashion, of course: https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/blog_mi...

Not to put words in your mouth, but this comment seems to imply that politicians successfully painted a negative picture of the economy that didn't reflect reality and used that to win the last election. While I wouldn't put that past them, why was it successful this time and not every time? Nobody even tried to pretend the economy was bad when Clinton, Bush or Obama were up for re-election, because it obviously wasn…

> why was it successful this time and not every time?

The tools for fooling people are becoming easier to develop and deploy.