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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#201
Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market.

Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, ask the poor how satisfied they are with the GDP.

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Yes, I agree. However the "economy bad" thing was blamed on Biden for signing another stimulus bill which created worse inflation. In reality both Biden and Trump are to blame, but the thinking among the lower class is that Biden made inflation worse.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This feels like a huge generalization to me. The US, UK, EU and realistically most developed countries I would say have fairly similar quality of life within margin of error. I've travelled a fair amount and everywhere is basically the same. For an individual it's really going to come down to lifestyle and what you prefer. Some people like urban living and walkability, if that's you then you probably want Japan or ol…

> The US, UK, EU and realistically most developed countries I would say have fairly similar quality of life within margin of error. Having lived in the EU (Netherlands) and the US (California), I would say the inequality in the US is much worse. Especially in larger cities. To the point where I sometimes wonder if I'm living in a "developed" country.

I'm British. When I visit the US I would agree that inequality is significantly higher, but it also seems quite clear that overall wealth is significantly higher too. Second and third tier cities in the US are clearly still fairly well off in a way that just isn't the case across Europe.

The thing I tend to always fall back on is the last part of my comment. You don't want to be poor in the US; there is no bottom. Whereas if you're poor in Europe usually there's a minimum standard that you'll fall to.

For most people the relevant factor I think is what the QoL in their cohort is like. I say it's a bit of a wash, because basically, if we limit the discussion to EU and US, if you're well off the US is probably better, if you're poor Europe is probably better, if you're in the middle then there are trade offs.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#204
post #169
post #108

My two cents: the U.S. owes much of its economic strength to its robust legal framework. It provides a system where complex business disputes can be handled and enforced effectively, creating trust and predictability for investors and entrepreneurs. This institutional strength is often overlooked but is critical for fostering innovation and long-term economic growth. Incidentally, recent Nobel laureates in economic s…

The US owes its "economic strength" to the ability to print $2T/yr in perpetuity and buy stuff with that money. Once that tap ceases to function (which eventually it will, though not anytime soon), the US is going to be fucked beyond any recognition.

That's irrational and alarmist. Any time I hear someone talk about "printing money" I figure I am hearing from someone who doesn't have a great grasp of finance. For those that are interested, the supply of US currency or purchasing power of the government is not controlled by printing.

A steelman of this argument is the USA has too much debt and can't keep issuing this much. Maybe true. But the world holds that debt and it's denominated in USD. Also, just the simple wealth of US households grows a lot faster than the debt so its still pretty clear that if the US wanted to pay all its debts it easily could. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL192090005Q) We could be heading for inflation like in the late 70's early 80's. Not good but you don't have to doomsday prep.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#205
post #165
post #14

This is an interesting take, because it contrasts with GDP PPP [0] which is suggesting that America is in fact being overtaken by its rivals although it has managed to outpace the EU. China is claiming to already be ahead and India is well on track to gain absolute economic ascendancy relative to the US. And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they…

PPP matters on an individual level, but not at all on a national level. GDP at market exchange rates is what actually matters in terms of what a country can accomplish on the world stage. And even on an individual level, PPP struggles with accuracy, because things are only ever roughly equivalent. There's a reason why so many individual people are trying to move from China and India to the US and EU, despite all the…

> PPP matters on an individual level, but not at all on a national level. GDP at market exchange rates is what actually matters in terms of what a country can accomplish on the world stage.

That's demonstrably false cause the global super-powers (i.e. the US, Russia and China, maybe India, too) mostly depend on their internal markets only when it comes to their war industry and to paying their soldiers. When it comes to that PPP is a lot closer to the truth on the ground.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#206
post #14

This is an interesting take, because it contrasts with GDP PPP [0] which is suggesting that America is in fact being overtaken by its rivals although it has managed to outpace the EU. China is claiming to already be ahead and India is well on track to gain absolute economic ascendancy relative to the US. And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they…

Europe is willingly self sabotaging their industry and energy production, in the name of some completely irrational environmentalist ideology that states that saving the planet is achieved by making Europe poorer while allowing China, India and a few others to pollute without any restrictions. So yeah, we are getting poorer by the day and on the brink of a major economic crisis. Just look at what is happening in Germ…

European auto makers are failing because they can't make EVs that the market wants. And the market doesn't want their ICE vehicles either. They over-focused on very expensive high end EV vehicles. That's why they are hurting, it's not because it's EVs.

European ICE vehicles are losing out in China because people there don't want to buy any more gas vehicles, at least most people are getting there. VWAG is losing marketshare in every segment that I see. It's not green power that is killing them, it's not many good cheap vehicles that are killing them - gas or EV.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#207
These articles also gloss over the US market is 400m English speakers with one set of legislation, more or less. Europe is 20+ languages and 20+ sets of legislation. That’s a colossal advantage. And any clicks and mortar business gets the benefit of absurdly cheap shipping costs compared to Europe.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#208

One thing this article doesn't touch on is the soaring government debt, which is now really quite big: 120%, and IIRC if you add municipal debt, it's more like 140%. That is high. It also seems like much of the recent growth has been fueled by this debt. It's unclear how this is going to unwind. America can afford, apparently, to run their deficit hot, but not forever and without limit. So at some point they have to…

Government debt doesn’t matter. It’s literally fake.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#209
post #14

This is an interesting take, because it contrasts with GDP PPP [0] which is suggesting that America is in fact being overtaken by its rivals although it has managed to outpace the EU. China is claiming to already be ahead and India is well on track to gain absolute economic ascendancy relative to the US. And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they…

What's this conspiracy of the US and Europe to destroy developing large economies world wide? If your plan is take over your neighbors, say you'll wipe out democracies and kill people and it's your destiny to win, then eventually the US & Europe will do something.

Russia literally talks about taking over the countries around them, bites off pieces and then subverts the countries that are left. That was all before the first piece of Ukraine was taken, Crimea.

NK - goal to destroy SK, has a big army and nukes. Worth trying to stop them.

China - Chains says the mere existence of Taiwan is worth destroying them. Also taking over the south china sea on the stupid dashed line that says they own the ocean down there. Dictatorships can't stand a functional democracy right next door.

India - if they don't plan to destroy the countries around them and take them over, then good on them. The US has been basically ignoring the fact that India is on a slow road to make their Muslim and other non-hindi citizens fail in every way in their society.

India said FU to the world and has been happy buying a lot of Russian oil that's under embargo. No one attacked them. The world isn't so simple as "western countries destroy all large growing competitors".

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I hear "America’s economy is soaring," I can’t help but think it probably just means the rich are getting richer. Don’t get me wrong—I’m not a communist. But it’s clear to me, especially when you look at how the middle class is struggling worldwide, that capitalism in its current form isn’t sustainable. What we need is some kind of “Capitalism 2.0” or “Capitalism++”. It makes no sense that someone with 300 billi…

Covid and the subsequent recovery was and is definitely K shaped. Someone with a house and assets has crushed it. Those without have only fallen further behind.

You nailed it. This was the case across all developed economies, a direct result of money printing.

You did especially well if you had assets bought with borrowed money since your gains were leveraged and your loan principal inflated away.

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