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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#651

Us Europeans are more 'detached' from the economy than people are in the USA. We basically coast along. We don't live on credit, but debit, and most people have zero investments outside their house. We're content and risk adverse and don't care much for the stock market (even though many people's pensions are tied to it). In places where higher education is cheap, or even sometimes free (like Sweden), there's less pr…

> The EU single market is largely a myth from the perspective of wanting to start a successful company that can compete internationally. It's not any easier now than it was before the EU existed.

That's not exactly true. The single market has been a great thing for companies producing physical products. That's also what was in mind of the people who designed the single market. They wanted to unify standards for physical stuff. Because back then, there were no digital services to speak of. "Analog" services were naturally limited in their scaling capability so they weren't in focus, but mankind had back then just learned to scale up physical production, and the single market for physical goods has largely worked out great to shape global standards and stay competitive in the area of anything that's traded and touchable.

What's been created is a bad fit for digital products and services, unfortunately. The legal frameworks covering purely digital services are far less unified than the standards for physical goods. And digital services are way more reliant on localization than physical stuff is. No amount of EU single market legislation will ever be able to eliminate the language barriers, much less other cultural barriers that are often hindering digital services successful in one EU country from being adopted in neighboring EU countries.

Therefore, for those digital services that benefit greatly from network effects, it'll be hard for European variants to ever beat their US counterparts on the domestic turfs, and virtually impossible on the global market. However, not all digital services are dependent on network effects, so there are good reasons to continue trying to make the EU single market more applicable to digital services and to foster domestic offerings whereever possible, even if that strategy will probably never lead to the next Facebook or Instagram or Amazon to be built by a EU company.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#652

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

I was thinking the same thing the other day. Like how much of the US GDP is tied to their suburb-living car-dependent lifestyle. What percentage of the GDP is all that infrastructure (sewage, heating, power plants, power transmission, car production, road maintenance)? Sure that create jobs, especially lower-skilled jobs which are important for society. But at the same time they didn't really need to exist. It feels…

Defense spending is necessary, if you want to keep your globalised markets and reasonable level of international security. Europe is now experiencing what happens if drop the "useless" defense spending too low.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very good point because in my country elder care is free. Daily visits by an assistant is on the municipality. We're not a leader in GDP, but we take care of our citizens, whether they be sick or old.

Municipality spending is part of GDP

But without the profit motive and the need to turn a profit for a few layers of middlemen, the impact on GDP will be much smaller than in the US.

There's a reason why healthcare expenditure per capita in the US is multiple times higher than any other OECD country, and why health insurance companies are some of the biggest public ones.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#654

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

Very good point because in my country elder care is free. Daily visits by an assistant is on the municipality. We're not a leader in GDP, but we take care of our citizens, whether they be sick or old.

That is not the point GP was making. The assistant you mention is still paid by the municipality, so they show up in GDP numbers just as much as if you paid them yourself.

What doesn't show up in GDP numbers are cultures where people take their elderly relatives into their own homes and care for them themselves. Same as hiring someone to look after your kids, or taking them to day care, shows up in GDP; while having their grandparents or other family care for the kids while you're off to work does not.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#655

Us Europeans are more 'detached' from the economy than people are in the USA. We basically coast along. We don't live on credit, but debit, and most people have zero investments outside their house. We're content and risk adverse and don't care much for the stock market (even though many people's pensions are tied to it). In places where higher education is cheap, or even sometimes free (like Sweden), there's less pr…

> The EU single market is largely a myth from the perspective of wanting to start a successful company that can compete internationally. It's not any easier now than it was before the EU existed.

This is simply not true. There is freedom of movement for workers which means it's easy to recruit top talent across the continent. Remote work is also much simplified. There's no friction moving goods and company assets across borders. The regulatory environment is significantly unified under the EU so there are few regulatory risks for companies growing outside their country within the region. Every EU company also has access to the entire continent's consumer base – 450 million residents, which is 50% more than the US.

This benefits many EU tech companies – Spotify, Revolut, Klarna, Bolt Mobility, Wise, N26, and so on and on and on.

> EU citizens like American companies

As an EU citizen, I don't bank with an American company, I don't drive an American car, I don't shop in American grocery stores nor is importing many American foods allowed on safety grounds, I don't buy American fuel, my private health insurance isn't American, and so on and forth. I only buy American tech where there isn't a more competitive Chinese alternative. I'm not against the US in any way, shape or form. I just don't think we think about the US in the EU as much as you think.

You are right in the sense that the European way of life is very different from the US way of life and we don't care that much for the economy. Yet Europe is still home to some of the largest stock markets in the world including LSE, Euronext, FSE, SIX Swiss, etc. We just don't value it as highly as other aspects in life – there is a strong sentiment of rejection of the rat race, growth of shareholder value at all costs, and other such American things in Europe.

Perhaps it would benefit you to first examine the evidence on the ground, and then re-evaluate if your belief in American values (which I respect – totally great values in many cases) blinds you to European culture around capitalism. Europe is quite socialist, after all. Naturally, less effort will be spent on capital, more on society.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#656

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

>The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market.

This argument could be made for many industries. E.g. Boeing and Airbus together control almost 100% of the global passenger jet market. "Passenger jet value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetized in the US and EU stock market."

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#657
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. I don't really understand what you mean. While their reach is global, it's largely American companies that are creating the tech value, no?

If excel makes billions in Asia, and provides more value than it takes (otherwise why bother buying it?) who is benefitting more of it? The companies it empowers or Microsoft's (global at the end of the day) shareholders?

Both are being empowered. Check out the concepts of "consumer surplus" and "producer surplus". If there's no surplus for either the producer or the consumer, typically there is just no transaction.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#658
For some reason I can’t help but think of the analogies of our current situation to the last years of the Soviet Union, when on paper it looked like a juggernaut albeit with decrepit leaders, but the numbers were lies, more lies and statistics. The elites were filthy rich but the situation on the ground was unraveling - basic services were starting to fail (analogies to Private Equity ruining everything in America from clinics to plumbing). And then you have Gorbachev who recognized the situation and attempted a “perestroika” (analogous to Trump and his reformist policies including DOGE) but that led to the final collapse. The analogies are just too many, even the failure in Afghanistan.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#659
post #14

This is an interesting take, because it contrasts with GDP PPP [0] which is suggesting that America is in fact being overtaken by its rivals although it has managed to outpace the EU. China is claiming to already be ahead and India is well on track to gain absolute economic ascendancy relative to the US. And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they…

The EU is number one in quality of life and that’s all that matters to me. If we work just hard enough to maintain and maybe even improve it, other countries can do their pissing contest.

The reason for that is that we have offloaded defense to americans and have century of accumulated capital (legacy of colonialism) to spend. How long do you think it's going to last? Even Brussels is getting concerned and that's telling.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#660
post #646
post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

> perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election How does the election tell you anything about the economy? Are you injecting a bunch of your reasons why you think people voted for X or Y or is there a factual argument behind that sentence?

There was a poll asking "what was your motivation to vote the way you did", and "the state of the economy" ranked pretty high among Trump voters (don't remember where I saw it though, sorry).
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