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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#621

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

It's also a measure of price level. If I pay $100 for a doctor's visit that's $100 to GDP. If it costs $1000 that's $1000 to GDP.

If it "costs" $1000 but that's just to get $100 from insurers who only pay 10% and I only have to pay 10% too? Still $1000 to GDP - I think.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#622
post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

Looking at the numbers the interest rate is almost 7% making most things very unaffordable for people who can't buy things like houses and cars with cash. Until that number dramatically goes down, regular people will suffer.

[flagged]

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#623

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

Seriously, just looking at the examples of "stagnated and failing economies" like Japan should be a give away that this measure is total BS.

In Germany a life saving brain surgery creates 5K USD of economic activity and the same surgery creates 500K USD of economic activity in the USA.

True story, a YouTuber I'm following recently had her mother operated in Germany and then again in the USA and she made a video about the experience and the numbers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-p1nP6hH6U

This obsession with GDP isn't healthy, among other obsessions like the "Number of gigantic companies" which is supposed to show that you are falling back in technology if you don't have extremely large companies by market capitalization metric.

It worries me because it's BS and BS can last just till a point. What happens if at one point in the future people start demanding benefiting from all that riches and success? I'm worried because I don't believe in(goodness of?) revolutions and the situation makes me anxious that the west with the US in particular is headed to some kind of revolution. They had one with the last election I guess but the revolutionaries appear to be pushing for the extreme version of the same thing which eventually might collapse with another revolution with the opposite thing like what UK ended up getting as a Labour landslide after Libertarian landslide.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#624

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perception can be manipulated in many ways. People get used to things and give for granted things that used to be luxuries a few generations back (see "hedonic treadmill") Combine that with active participants who control the media landscape and have a vested interest in painting a bleak picture so they can be the ones fixing it. And then of course there is the fact that things are of course objectively hard for many…

So the people who are fed up with how things are currently going are according to your argument here either - manipulated / brainwashed - entitled / spoiled - outliers (the few who have it bad are too loud). - the problems can’t be fixed anyway - don’t realise how much worse it was in the past ? I disagree that the sentiment of the general population is not a useful indicator of how good things are going for the gene…

> I disagree that the sentiment of the general population is not a useful indicator of how good things are going for the general population

I think that there's a factual case that general sentiment is no longer a useful indicator of "how good things are going for the general population".

Sources:

https://www.newsweek.com/economy-strength-politics-yougov-da...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/09/is-e...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-21/consumer-...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#625
The DAX reached this year a new record of over 20000. Is Germany doing good right now? On the news reports they even have to mention that it’s how the investors predict the future market, because everybody here know the economy is shit atm.

If I’m not mistaken most of the growth in the capital market comes from the continuing money „printing“ right?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#626
post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

My understanding is: * Perception of the economy depends tremendously on whether the president is of your preferred party. Whenever the presidency changes hands, you see a massive and rapid flip in which party supporters are satisfied with the state of the economy. * If you ask Americans about how they are doing personally, as opposed to how they believe the economy is doing, their response is much rosier. See also:…

AFAIK the former effect has been found to be much stronger among Republicans, though it exists in both parties. It was something like a 50% swing in approval rating versus 10%.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#627

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the people who are fed up with how things are currently going are according to your argument here either - manipulated / brainwashed - entitled / spoiled - outliers (the few who have it bad are too loud). - the problems can’t be fixed anyway - don’t realise how much worse it was in the past ? I disagree that the sentiment of the general population is not a useful indicator of how good things are going for the gene…

Yes people are fed up. Nobody is arguing that people are happy and somebody is misrepresenting that. What I'm trying to say is that there is an explanation for why this sentiment exists despite measures of material wealth and economic success being positive. The fact that there is an explanation doesn't magically make people feel better. I think it all boils down to the attitude one has towards seeking explaination.…

Normative approach versus a descriptive/empirical approach.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#628

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the people who are fed up with how things are currently going are according to your argument here either - manipulated / brainwashed - entitled / spoiled - outliers (the few who have it bad are too loud). - the problems can’t be fixed anyway - don’t realise how much worse it was in the past ? I disagree that the sentiment of the general population is not a useful indicator of how good things are going for the gene…

Yes people are fed up. Nobody is arguing that people are happy and somebody is misrepresenting that. What I'm trying to say is that there is an explanation for why this sentiment exists despite measures of material wealth and economic success being positive. The fact that there is an explanation doesn't magically make people feel better. I think it all boils down to the attitude one has towards seeking explaination.…

Yep, positive vs normative might be the words you are looking for.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#629
post #623

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

Seriously, just looking at the examples of "stagnated and failing economies" like Japan should be a give away that this measure is total BS. In Germany a life saving brain surgery creates 5K USD of economic activity and the same surgery creates 500K USD of economic activity in the USA. True story, a YouTuber I'm following recently had her mother operated in Germany and then again in the USA and she made a video about…

> What happens if at one point in the future people start demanding benefiting from all that riches and success?

With any luck, what will happen is that future people will benefit from all those riches and success.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#630

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

It's also a measure of price level. If I pay $100 for a doctor's visit that's $100 to GDP. If it costs $1000 that's $1000 to GDP. If it "costs" $1000 but that's just to get $100 from insurers who only pay 10% and I only have to pay 10% too? Still $1000 to GDP - I think.

GDP is C + G + ... and the C is personal consumption, so I guess if you pay 100 USD that's what gets added, and the premiums (and whatever your employer pays for you)
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