Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals • Hacker News Board

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#611

Post by topkai22 » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:41 AM UTC

Terr_ wrote: post #600

fooker wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US life expectancy has declined over the past three years Do you have a source for this ?

There was a big dip in 2021, but it has started rising again, and it's possible it might rendezvous again with the old trend. This means parent-poster might be technically correct in the sense of "between T to T+3 it decreased", but I would not jump straight to blaming the the longer-term background horribleness of US health insurance for it. It's far more likely to be that teensy-weensy COVID-19 pandemic , both in t…

Covid and opioid deaths. Opioids are bad. To quote the lancet “Opioid overdose mortality rates are alarmingly high, but measures based on death counts alone do not fully capture the impact of this crisis as they do not account for the young age at which most opioid-related deaths occur…” (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-19...)

The particular article found opioid deaths lowered life expectancy by 0.67 years, which is a crazy number.

Drug overdose deaths finally seem to be trending down in 2024, but they are still elevated and awful.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#612

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:42 AM UTC

analog31 wrote: post #562

luizfzs wrote: post #255

But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.

Something I wonder, along these lines, is whether we're measuring the right thing. For instance, does "thriving" depend on things like life expectancy, infant mortality, maternal mortality, quality of health care, pollution, crime, incarceration, traffic deaths, and so forth? The way I think about it, "economics" is supposed to study the quality of life, not just a few isolated numbers that happen to be in units of d…

Things are not bad in Mississippi: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/its-great-to-live-in-t...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#613

Post by PeterStuer » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:43 AM UTC

rbanffy wrote: post #596

jandrewrogers wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

If 10-15% of American families live from paycheck to paycheck, it means pretty much everyone knows someone who’s struggling. Another aspect of these numbers is how much of the ordinary expenses are not luxury items but things like a car (because public transport is terrible), childcare (because people need to work to pay for it and the car that’s needed to shuttle kids around) and some healthcare (because public heal…

"If 10-15% of American families live from paycheck to paycheck, it means pretty much everyone knows someone who’s struggling"

Not really. Most social groups are fairly homogeneous. Even those that view themselves as knowing a wide swat of people from all sorts of live are unaware that beyond some superficial diversity they tend to have unconsciously selected for commonality of outlook and context.

I learned this at a young age when due to circumstance I elected to do my back then obligatory military service year before going to university as opposed to all my friends that first finished their studies and then (mostly) opted for the 'conscientious objector' route and spend 24 months in civil service.

Going into the army without a degree you get to spend a lot of time with many people that can't read or write, could not finish high-school, never had opened a book or seen any of the films or heard the music your mates loved. Often violence and making baffling poor health and safety decisions were a very frequent occurrence.

What I'm saying is that unless forced by circumstances beyond your control, your circle of acquaintance is probably less a cross cut of society than you imagine.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#614

Post by portaouflop » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:44 AM UTC

ithkuil wrote: post #606

_1tem wrote: post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

Perception can be manipulated in many ways. People get used to things and give for granted things that used to be luxuries a few generations back (see "hedonic treadmill") Combine that with active participants who control the media landscape and have a vested interest in painting a bleak picture so they can be the ones fixing it. And then of course there is the fact that things are of course objectively hard for many…

So the people who are fed up with how things are currently going are according to your argument here either

- manipulated / brainwashed - entitled / spoiled - outliers (the few who have it bad are too loud). - the problems can’t be fixed anyway - don’t realise how much worse it was in the past ?

I disagree that the sentiment of the general population is not a useful indicator of how good things are going for the general population. I think it is the best indicator, but people in power (and I would count most on this forum among then) don’t want to see anything that threatens their status quo.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#615

Post by ithkuil » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:46 AM UTC

ithkuil wrote: post #610

_1tem wrote: post #608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perception can be manipulated in many ways. Numbers are even easier to manipulate.

I think perception about what numbers mean is even easier to manipulate

There are so many metrics. The act of selecting one metric or another metric to drive a point across is a key way to "lie with numbers". The numbers themselves are usually correct but they paint a misleading picture nevertheless.

A similar thing happens with fiddling with the axis on graphs, e.g. not starting a graph at zero or using the wrong scale.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#616

Post by b112 » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:46 AM UTC

ithkuil wrote: post #606

_1tem wrote: post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

Perception can be manipulated in many ways. People get used to things and give for granted things that used to be luxuries a few generations back (see "hedonic treadmill") Combine that with active participants who control the media landscape and have a vested interest in painting a bleak picture so they can be the ones fixing it. And then of course there is the fact that things are of course objectively hard for many…

Tangently, being poor in a wealthy area is far different than being poor in a poor area.

An example being "cast offs". In my early 20s, I moved from a poorer rural area, to a well to do city suburb.

Walking to various places, I noticed things cast aside that would never, ever be thrown away in the area I grew up in.

Examples being:

* an expensive propane bbq, with damage to one of the hoses. A $10 repair and I had a bbq worth hundreds.

(Even looked brand new)

* A set of cutlery, and plates. One of 8 plates had a crack. The cutlery was missing one fork out of a set of 8.

(For a young man eating off of one plate, this was a big bonus)

* a coat rack, mild discolouration

(10 cents in paint out of a spray can to fix)

Anyhow, you get the point. Very usable items cast off, and I would never have found this treasure trove in a poor neighbourhood.

Just being surrounded by a society of greater wealth, means better access generally.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#617

Post by nnechm » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:50 AM UTC

hunglee2 wrote: post #590

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

Feels more and more like it's the best of times and the worst of times...

Things feel off,but you have (mostly well-off) people talking about how great things are going to be and are. I suspect a lot of this correlates to the stock market.

For the median millenial atleast, whatever you were taught growing up is just the wrong guide to understanding the world today.

I think social media by its very nature, has to be understood inverted. A high number of posts about how great things are suggests otherwise. Comparisons with Europe have gone exponential that tells you more about how the posters feel than anything else...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#618

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:51 AM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #14

This is an interesting take, because it contrasts with GDP PPP [0] which is suggesting that America is in fact being overtaken by its rivals although it has managed to outpace the EU. China is claiming to already be ahead and India is well on track to gain absolute economic ascendancy relative to the US. And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they…

>And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they have access to the history books and have a pretty good view into how Western leadership thinks.

The history books say Western countries abandoned conquest many decades ago. The leaders who initiated colonialism are long dead. Nowadays all we have are handwavey analogies to colonialism when someone wants to be provocative.

Countries aren't people: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXz0kbMKPu0

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#619

Post by xvector » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:53 AM UTC

portaouflop wrote: post #614

ithkuil wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perception can be manipulated in many ways. People get used to things and give for granted things that used to be luxuries a few generations back (see "hedonic treadmill") Combine that with active participants who control the media landscape and have a vested interest in painting a bleak picture so they can be the ones fixing it. And then of course there is the fact that things are of course objectively hard for many…

So the people who are fed up with how things are currently going are according to your argument here either - manipulated / brainwashed - entitled / spoiled - outliers (the few who have it bad are too loud). - the problems can’t be fixed anyway - don’t realise how much worse it was in the past ? I disagree that the sentiment of the general population is not a useful indicator of how good things are going for the gene…

[flagged]

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#620

Post by ithkuil » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 8:54 AM UTC

portaouflop wrote: post #614

ithkuil wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perception can be manipulated in many ways. People get used to things and give for granted things that used to be luxuries a few generations back (see "hedonic treadmill") Combine that with active participants who control the media landscape and have a vested interest in painting a bleak picture so they can be the ones fixing it. And then of course there is the fact that things are of course objectively hard for many…

So the people who are fed up with how things are currently going are according to your argument here either - manipulated / brainwashed - entitled / spoiled - outliers (the few who have it bad are too loud). - the problems can’t be fixed anyway - don’t realise how much worse it was in the past ? I disagree that the sentiment of the general population is not a useful indicator of how good things are going for the gene…

Yes people are fed up. Nobody is arguing that people are happy and somebody is misrepresenting that.

What I'm trying to say is that there is an explanation for why this sentiment exists despite measures of material wealth and economic success being positive.

The fact that there is an explanation doesn't magically make people feel better.

I think it all boils down to the attitude one has towards seeking explaination.

One is a scientific approach where one aims at understanding the dynamics of a phenomenon in a way that is detached from it as much as possible.

The other approach is moral one where one seeks an explanation in order to convince oneself (and others) how one should feel about it. "You shouldn't complain, you have indoor plumbing your grandparents had to pump water from a well; shut up".

I'm not making the latter, moral, argument. I'm trying to make the scientific one