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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#391

Post by kansface »

greenthrow wrote: post #238
badpun wrote: post #197

Not a single word about shale oil and gas revolution, that started around 15 years ago? The US now has the one of the cheapest energy on earth, and probably the cheapest among the countries that matter. Pour all that cheap gas and oil onto an economy that was already a leader and you get lots of impressive growth.

It's not brought up because this is not the source of the growth whatsoever. It has only served to keep our gasoline and methane costs low compared to the rest of the world. That's nice for people but does not create massive economic growth in the 21st century of the kind being discussed. That is all coming from the tech sector. If you want to talk energy to power the server farms, the growth in energy is happening w…

Can't we consider the cost of energy as a general tax on the economy? If all economic output is N% cheaper in the US, we'd expect compounding effects.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#392

Post by savingsPossible »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #386
luizfzs wrote: post #255

But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

Can you provide some links?

Searches understandably are finding more 'ordinary/necessary' expenses for business than for families

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#393

Post by no_wizard »

narski wrote: post #377
sangnoir wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

>Looking at the numbers I'm reminded of this excerpt from 1984: But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just…

I think you may have a point.

Nobody wants to believe they’re living in a peak, and it is hard to predicate. People claiming economic downturns are near are a dime a dozen.

That said, there are possible indicators. Yes, unemployment is low, but what form is employment taking? Is it generally trending toward fulfillment, growth and/or rewarding or is it trending toward mundane, unfulfilling and/or unrewarding?

Is everyone benefitting from the official economic growth? Or are the gains statistically lopsided?

Let’s take a common mentioned stat about wage growth. Yes since 2020 wages finally raised. But if you look at it overall since 1970[0], it still behind productivity gains. Wages are not keeping up with overall productivity growth and people are still going to notice that in some form. Everyone talks about since 2020, but that misses the broader story. (As an aside, I suspect by the end of 2025 wages will significantly stagnant again. Growth won’t continue on the best take of the current trajectory)

Then there’s inflation. Regardless of cause, an entire generation+ of people have never experienced such rapid prices rising, particularly with groceries. People aren’t going to forget this, no matter what the official line is. This also eats away at wage growth which as noted above, has not kept paced with productivity gains.

The official sources though say everything is great, or heading toward it. Maybe, especially if you’re seeing the benefits, but if you’re locked out of the majority of gains, what if any you do get will feel meaningless. This shouldn’t be discounted.

It is entirely possible that wealth inequality combined with the world political climate is starting to show more cracks in the system and this might be peak. We may be seeing the warning signs of a big changes, whether it manifests itself as mostly political or economic is anyways guess I suppose

[0]: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/heres-how-labor-dynamism-aff...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#394

Post by thuanao »

lifeisstillgood wrote: post #201

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

If you remove non-industrial and financial activity from US GDP, the economic picture is bleak. US and G7 have been steadily deindustrializing while BRICS have been doing the opposite.

US GDP is misleading in the sense that it increasingly includes a large portion of economic activity that isn't actually producing tangible wealth.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#395

Post by comicjk »

narski wrote: post #377
sangnoir wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

>Looking at the numbers I'm reminded of this excerpt from 1984: But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just…

What are the actual numbers you think are fantasy? Most of the time when I see someone claiming economic statistics are fake, it's a misunderstanding or lack of context. For instance, people will say the US unemployment rate is fake because it doesn't include people who have given up on looking for work... but the U-4 unemployment metric, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics alongside the main U-3 metric, does include these people.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#396

Post by jandrewrogers »

notJim wrote: post #307
sokoloff wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know plenty of people making $250K/yr or more who are living paycheck to paycheck. At that point, it's not really the company that's the problem...

The living paycheck to paycheck stat is meaningless. It generates headlines, because bad news wins, but if you dig in, even the surveys that ask about this reveal that a large percentage of people living paycheck to paycheck are very financially secure, both objectively, and according to their own assessment. I don't have time right now, but I'd encourage anyone reading this to go find the actual source for this stat…

The Federal Reserve has pretty detailed studies on this that take a nuanced view of spending behavior. Households with no excess income after necessary expenses are in the 10-15% range. The methodology is designed to exclude the diverse scenarios under which having no apparent excess income is an artifact of lifestyle rather than an economic reality.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#397

Post by dragonelite »

georgeecollins wrote: post #179
roenxi wrote: post #14

This is an interesting take, because it contrasts with GDP PPP [0] which is suggesting that America is in fact being overtaken by its rivals although it has managed to outpace the EU. China is claiming to already be ahead and India is well on track to gain absolute economic ascendancy relative to the US. And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they…

A lot of macro economic statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, or more literally: approximations with a measurement error. PPP GDP is useful to compare, particularly politically because if the cost of goods in a country is lower people are more likely to be healthy / comfortable with less income. I think it is a little dubious when you use PPP to compare th3e size of two economies because 1) you are taking…

gdp is really bad, countries don't even use the same counting methods. I think in the Netherlands they started using criminal activity to pad up gdp growth. Also money printing and inflation is a good way to up gdp.

I like energy production and consumption a lot more, modern economies pretty much come down to using energy to either transfer or modify goods, services or data.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#398

Post by roncesvalles »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #341
roncesvalles wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PPP is an increasingly irrelevant notion in a globalized, digital, and immigration-friendly world. An iPhone or a Toyota Corolla costs the same in the US as it does in China. There is no remarkable arbitrage with real estate either - you're paying for the location and everything that comes with it. There is no secret city where the rent is low, there are plenty of well-paying jobs, you enjoy freedom of speech and can…

How often are you buying iPhones and Toyota Corollas? PPP conversion rates are based on what people actually spend their money on. Easily tradeable goods, like iPhones and cars, make up only one component of GDP.

Sure, but my contention is that even the small things are of worse quality in the so-called "high purchasing power" countries, which is the main reason why they are cheaper. There is no actual arbitrage or difference in "purchasing power", just that the market is optimized to serve a different price-quality point.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#399

Post by grogenaut »

sangnoir wrote: post #291
luizfzs wrote: post #255

But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

People seemed to vote on how they felt not what these numbers said. So the vibes seem more valid than the stats at least on their real world impact in many ways.

Continuing to yell at people about the numbers doesn't seem to be an effective strategy, maybe try a different approach?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#400

Post by lukas099 »

notJim wrote: post #307
sokoloff wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know plenty of people making $250K/yr or more who are living paycheck to paycheck. At that point, it's not really the company that's the problem...

The living paycheck to paycheck stat is meaningless. It generates headlines, because bad news wins, but if you dig in, even the surveys that ask about this reveal that a large percentage of people living paycheck to paycheck are very financially secure, both objectively, and according to their own assessment. I don't have time right now, but I'd encourage anyone reading this to go find the actual source for this stat…

> Many of those people living paycheck to paycheck have a budget where they're saving or investing a significant amount of their money, and accordingly, money feels tight.

I don’t understand. Isn’t everybody living paycheck-to-paycheck then?

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