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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#361

Post by bpt3 »

benreesman wrote: post #322
luizfzs wrote: post #255

But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.

Asset prices are extremely high. When politicians or business journalists say “the economy is doing well” they mean asset prices. The stock market is high on a number of metrics, which is great if you own a bunch of equities. Housing prices are soaring, which is great if you own real estate. Food, housing, energy, healthcare, education. Real wage growth and job security measured against the prices and durations of th…

> Food, housing, energy, healthcare, education. Real wage growth and job security measured against the prices and durations of those things. That’s what matters to people who don’t own significant real assets, those are the things that can get extremely bad (someone tries to murder the CEO of United Healthcare on the street bad) without showing up in the numbers you see in the press.

You're correct that they do matter and can get bad, but are not bad currently as regularly reported in the press.

Lower income households in the US did better than everyone else by these metrics coming out of COVID.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#363

Post by divbzero »

luizfzs wrote: post #255

But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.

> But is the majority of the population thriving?

This is a good point. Aggregate GDP is definitely not the right measure for this, and even GDP per capita adjusted for inflation and PPP does not account for economic inequality.

Median household income adjusted for inflation and PPP would probably be the least bad option if we had to choose a single statistic:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/median-in...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#364

Post by gruez »

spaceguillotine wrote: post #350

I've never known more homeless people before in my life in America, seems like its only the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer and less healthy.

>seems like its only the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer and less healthy.

At least in the past decade, the opposite has been happening.

>[...] Even after taxes and transfers, the average real income of households like his grew by 110% from 1990 to 2019, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). But most of that growth took place early in the time period: in 2019 he was probably doing worse than his equivalent in 2007, before the global financial crisis.

>By contrast incomes in the lowest 20% of households, in which the fast-food worker resides, surged in the tight labour market of the late-2010s. By 2019 she was enjoying after-tax-and-transfer household income 25% higher than those like her in 2007, in part thanks to “Obamacare”. Even over the full period since 1990, the bottom quintile’s after-tax-and-transfer income growth was 77%, the same as for the highest quintile—thus, excluding the highest-earning 1% from the top 20% would show the poor enjoying faster income growth than the upper-middle-class. [...]

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/10/14/is-highe...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#365

Post by mesk »

eitally wrote: post #260
mesk wrote: post #227

I'm thinking a lot lately about which country would be best for my future, and somehow US is never there. Maybe for me without family yes, but otherwise I see it like there, I would be one illness away from bankrupcy, one crazy kid with a gun away from family tragedy, one away from . Sure, being in top 10% is cool, but will my kids be also so lucky? And the middle class in the US already thinks they are struggling (h…

This is the kind of comment written by someone who only knows a country from its headlines. The US, as a resident, skews wildly from the popular narrative in many ways much of the time -- regardless who is in charge.

> The US, as a resident, skews wildly from the popular narrative in many ways much of the time

Much of the time, thats it, you named it. To me the worst case scenario (I work in IT, so I often think in the worst case scenarios) in few relatively common situations, _seems_ to be much worse in the US.

Common, like being ill, visiting hospital, going to school, being stopped by the police.... (headlines again).

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#366

Post by mattnewton »

redeux wrote: post #362

The results of the last election tell a much different story. If the economy was soaring for the average person then I don’t think control of the government would have changed or at least not as dramatically.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/views-of-the...

Views of how the economy is doing are also highly correlated with political party and where you get your news. I’m not sure where the casual relationship begins but it could be where you get your news determines how you think the economy is doing and where you get your news is from political voices you agree with

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#367

Post by sangnoir »

webdood90 wrote: post #324
sangnoir wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

> low unemployment I feel that this is pretty well established as a misleading metric https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-un... > strong consumer spending how does this track against consumer debt? > average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation but has it caught up? https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/wage-to-inf... > I'd say the majority is doing better than most years…

> but has it caught up?

Which year is your baseline, and why?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#368

Post by redeux »

buckle8017 wrote: post #356
spaceguillotine wrote: post #350

I've never known more homeless people before in my life in America, seems like its only the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer and less healthy.

The homeless is just more visible than it used to be. https://www.statista.com/statistics/555795/estimated-number-...

From my perspective all that chart shows is that it’s been pervasive issue for at least the last 2 decades. I don’t think that homelessness is any more or less visible now than it has been, at least in my lifetime.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#369

Post by Gibbon1 »

redeux wrote: post #362

The results of the last election tell a much different story. If the economy was soaring for the average person then I don’t think control of the government would have changed or at least not as dramatically.

The St Louis fed has a plot of units of housing over the last 25 years. Since 2008 we're short about 15 million units of housing. Which is how everyone that works for a living is getting squeezed. Rents and mortgages have sucked up all the disposable income.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#370

Post by shafoshaf »

indymike wrote: post #287
mesk wrote: post #227

I'm thinking a lot lately about which country would be best for my future, and somehow US is never there. Maybe for me without family yes, but otherwise I see it like there, I would be one illness away from bankrupcy, one crazy kid with a gun away from family tragedy, one away from . Sure, being in top 10% is cool, but will my kids be also so lucky? And the middle class in the US already thinks they are struggling (h…

> And the middle class in the US already thinks they are struggling Middle class financial issues in the US are age related. College debt, cost of raising children, buying a home combined with low entry wages put young people in a hole it takes 10-30 years to crawl out of. But when they do they quickly accumulate wealth. There are also a lot of people who choose to not save. That is a choice you don't have to make.

Not to mention that A LOT of millenials are about to inherit a ton of money from the Baby Boomers. The Boomers are just lasting longer because of advances in health care, all of whom are on Medicare which is government funded health insurance. In fact, about 40% of Americans on are federal healthcare between Medicare and Medicaid.
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