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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#341

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

roncesvalles wrote: post #63
roenxi wrote: post #14

This is an interesting take, because it contrasts with GDP PPP [0] which is suggesting that America is in fact being overtaken by its rivals although it has managed to outpace the EU. China is claiming to already be ahead and India is well on track to gain absolute economic ascendancy relative to the US. And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they…

PPP is an increasingly irrelevant notion in a globalized, digital, and immigration-friendly world. An iPhone or a Toyota Corolla costs the same in the US as it does in China. There is no remarkable arbitrage with real estate either - you're paying for the location and everything that comes with it. There is no secret city where the rent is low, there are plenty of well-paying jobs, you enjoy freedom of speech and can…

How often are you buying iPhones and Toyota Corollas? PPP conversion rates are based on what people actually spend their money on. Easily tradeable goods, like iPhones and cars, make up only one component of GDP.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#342

Post by rootusrootus »

DonnyV wrote: post #315
ajross wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. Is that not true in other economies? Was that not true at some (mythical?) point in the past? What number, specifically, would you like to see before you're willing to declare "The Economy is Good"? Basically the point you made is an example of the Economics of Vibes. It's non-falsifiable and allows you to justify any position you want. We're about to start…

Family needs to make $107,700 a year to own a home. Apartment in a moderate-cost area is about $70,000-$100,000/year. Median salary in the US is $59,300 What considered poverty level in the US for: 1 person: $15,060 2 people: $20,440 3 people: $25,820 4 people: $31,200 According to recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, around 50% of Americans make $70,000 or more annually. That means about 50% of the US can not af…

> That means about 50% of the US can not afford a place to live.

And yet, they do. I don't think your numbers lead to your conclusion.

Being single and wanting to own your own home is going to be the closest situation to your conclusion. 50% of those folks being unable to achieve that dream sounds plausible.

The median rent is $1621. One bedroom and studio apartments will be on the lower end, and a $60K salary is likely to be sufficient.

For everyone who wants to obtain housing for themselves and a significant other, they have $120K to work with. Now the house looks achievable.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#343

Post by llm_trw »

lolinder wrote: post #333
sangnoir wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

HN in particular has a deflated view of the economy because our sector was going through such a big bubble from 2014 on, which got even bigger for a brief window around the pandemic. We in particular had a long way to fall back to reality, so our personal economic outlook is worse than it's been for a while, even if the rest of the economy is looking up.

Hn has a highly inflated view of the economy because we only see the top of the economic pie. I shop at cheap ethnic stores because I grew up with that food and the prices that poor people see are two to three times what they were 5 years ago. Telling this to someone who buys premium organic free range eggs is like trying to explain to a fish that a flood doesn't benefit everyone.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#344

Post by gruez »

webdood90 wrote: post #324
sangnoir wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

> low unemployment I feel that this is pretty well established as a misleading metric https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-un... > strong consumer spending how does this track against consumer debt? > average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation but has it caught up? https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/wage-to-inf... > I'd say the majority is doing better than most years…

>I feel that this is pretty well established as a misleading metric https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-un...

I fail to see how it's "misleading". U3 doesn't include people who don't want a job. That seems... fine? If you don't want a job, and don't have a job, why should you be factored into the health of the labor market? Isn't it more misleading to lump people who want a job but can't find a job, with people who don't want a job and aren't working?

>but has it caught up? https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/wage-to-inf...

The linked article says:

>Source: Bankrate's Wage To Inflation Index using the Department of Labor's employment cost index (ECI) and consumer price index (CPI)

Using BLS's weekly wage data adjusted by CPI gets the opposite conclusion, so my guess is that there's something funky going on with the employment cost index. For one, it includes benefits, so if health insurance costs go down, then "average income" (as computed by bankrate's index) will go down, even if your take-home is the same. At best, the only thing you can conclude from that is "employers' spending on employees is rising slower than inflation", which is slightly different than "employees' incomes are rising slower than inflation".

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#345

Post by pests »

0xBDB wrote: post #248
DrBazza wrote: post #207

These articles also gloss over the US market is 400m English speakers with one set of legislation, more or less. Europe is 20+ languages and 20+ sets of legislation. That’s a colossal advantage. And any clicks and mortar business gets the benefit of absurdly cheap shipping costs compared to Europe.

Business law is a state issue in the U.S. The reason that the U.S. has one set of legislation (more or less) is that 50 states (well, 49) have voluntarily adopted the Uniform Commercial Code. There is absolutely nothing stopping Europe from doing the same or similar except lack of political will.

Which state hasn't? I thought all states have adopted it with their own variations / changes.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#346

Post by skybrian »

loufe wrote: post #266

It's also the distorted ability to rack up ungodly amounts of debt without facing the normal consequences of doing that. The US economy is booming, but it's borrowing from two decades from now to fuel the moment. When their debt gets unmanageable, the world's economy will enter a depression, IMO.

Maybe, but low interest rates have been over for two years and so far, so good.

Also, not exactly borrowing from the future (this is impossible without a time machine). More like borrowing from others based on expectations about future income.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#347

Post by nradov »

codr7 wrote: post #281
nradov wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that a "problem"? What is preventing other countries from building tech winners? The USA isn't launching missiles to destroy the next foreign Nvidia or Meta competitor.

I don't know about missiles, but there's no lack of sanctions.

Which sanctions?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#348

Post by shafoshaf »

shusson wrote: post #195
naming_the_user wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This feels like a huge generalization to me. The US, UK, EU and realistically most developed countries I would say have fairly similar quality of life within margin of error. I've travelled a fair amount and everywhere is basically the same. For an individual it's really going to come down to lifestyle and what you prefer. Some people like urban living and walkability, if that's you then you probably want Japan or ol…

> The US, UK, EU and realistically most developed countries I would say have fairly similar quality of life within margin of error. Having lived in the EU (Netherlands) and the US (California), I would say the inequality in the US is much worse. Especially in larger cities. To the point where I sometimes wonder if I'm living in a "developed" country.

There is also a lot of impact from immigration that the US has that Europe has not. Immigrants tend not to be at the high end. The US has had a large influx of immigrants (around 14% of the whole population right now) vs just 6% for Europe. (from quick Google checks.) I'm not saying that is good or bad, but if you keep adding at the lowest end of income you increase the inequality if the most wealthy are experiencing gains.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#349

Post by callalex »

loxodrome wrote: post #98
spiderfarmer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU is number one in quality of life and that’s all that matters to me. If we work just hard enough to maintain and maybe even improve it, other countries can do their pissing contest.

I’m an American living in France for the past two years and cannot wait to move back to the USA. The taxes are so extreme and salaries so low that no one can even invest in the stock market. If I stay here, I will be able to leave virtually nothing to my kids when I die. The EU can take its 5 weeks of vacation and go fuck itself.

You can't leave money for your kids in the USA unless you have several million dollars lying around, because health care will eat up all of your savings in old age.
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