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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#231

Post by seydor »

lifeisstillgood wrote: post #201

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

Tech is not a 'problem'. It has replaced Finance in the pecking order of power relationships. Since US controls it , it can exert control everywhere where its tech goes. China shielded itself from it early on.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#232

Post by jameslk »

georgeecollins wrote: post #204
ein0p wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US owes its "economic strength" to the ability to print $2T/yr in perpetuity and buy stuff with that money. Once that tap ceases to function (which eventually it will, though not anytime soon), the US is going to be fucked beyond any recognition.

That's irrational and alarmist. Any time I hear someone talk about "printing money" I figure I am hearing from someone who doesn't have a great grasp of finance. For those that are interested, the supply of US currency or purchasing power of the government is not controlled by printing. A steelman of this argument is the USA has too much debt and can't keep issuing this much. Maybe true. But the world holds that debt…

We're heading into 1940s inflation, not 1970s. 1970s inflation was lending driven. 1940s inflation was fiscally driven, like it is today.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#233

Post by francisofascii »

jebarker wrote: post #217
lifeisstillgood wrote: post #201

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

Can you expand on this? What do you mean by "monetized in the US stock market"?

From a stock market perspective, if you look at a graph of Vanguard FTSE All World ex US ETF (ticker VEU), it looks like normal growth, but looks vastly different from say Vanguard Total Stock market (ticket VTI) which shows phenomenal growth. This is because VTI includes US tech stocks and VEU doesn't. Take out the tech stocks and maybe VTI would look like VEU.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#234

Post by bloppe »

paganel wrote: post #205
bloppe wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PPP matters on an individual level, but not at all on a national level. GDP at market exchange rates is what actually matters in terms of what a country can accomplish on the world stage. And even on an individual level, PPP struggles with accuracy, because things are only ever roughly equivalent. There's a reason why so many individual people are trying to move from China and India to the US and EU, despite all the…

> PPP matters on an individual level, but not at all on a national level. GDP at market exchange rates is what actually matters in terms of what a country can accomplish on the world stage. That's demonstrably false cause the global super-powers (i.e. the US, Russia and China, maybe India, too) mostly depend on their internal markets only when it comes to their war industry and to paying their soldiers. When it comes…

If we're talking military only, then you have to look at defense budgets, not GDP. The US defense budget is still much bigger than China's and Russia's combined, even after controlling for PPP.

By "what a country can accomplish on the world stage", I meant a more holistic view of what a country can do, such as investing, R&D, exploration, etc. (and also military).

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#235

Post by stcroixx »

nradov wrote: post #222
lifeisstillgood wrote: post #201

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

How is that a "problem"? What is preventing other countries from building tech winners? The USA isn't launching missiles to destroy the next foreign Nvidia or Meta competitor.

I don't think it's a problem. What's preventing other countries from building something similar to the US tech companies is a combination of regulation and culture.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#236

Post by [deleted] »

amrocha wrote: post #157
naming_the_user wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This feels like a huge generalization to me. The US, UK, EU and realistically most developed countries I would say have fairly similar quality of life within margin of error. I've travelled a fair amount and everywhere is basically the same. For an individual it's really going to come down to lifestyle and what you prefer. Some people like urban living and walkability, if that's you then you probably want Japan or ol…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#237

Post by greenthrow »

rich_sasha wrote: post #48

One thing this article doesn't touch on is the soaring government debt, which is now really quite big: 120%, and IIRC if you add municipal debt, it's more like 140%. That is high. It also seems like much of the recent growth has been fueled by this debt. It's unclear how this is going to unwind. America can afford, apparently, to run their deficit hot, but not forever and without limit. So at some point they have to…

Government debt only becomes a problem when it becomes a problem to pay it. We're nowhere near that point in the US.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#238

Post by greenthrow »

badpun wrote: post #197

Not a single word about shale oil and gas revolution, that started around 15 years ago? The US now has the one of the cheapest energy on earth, and probably the cheapest among the countries that matter. Pour all that cheap gas and oil onto an economy that was already a leader and you get lots of impressive growth.

It's not brought up because this is not the source of the growth whatsoever. It has only served to keep our gasoline and methane costs low compared to the rest of the world. That's nice for people but does not create massive economic growth in the 21st century of the kind being discussed. That is all coming from the tech sector. If you want to talk energy to power the server farms, the growth in energy is happening with renewables which are and far cheaper than any fossil fuels.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#239

Post by harrall »

rich_sasha wrote: post #48

One thing this article doesn't touch on is the soaring government debt, which is now really quite big: 120%, and IIRC if you add municipal debt, it's more like 140%. That is high. It also seems like much of the recent growth has been fueled by this debt. It's unclear how this is going to unwind. America can afford, apparently, to run their deficit hot, but not forever and without limit. So at some point they have to…

US debt has been this high before.

You lend someone money based on whether you think they can pay you back. People still buy US debt because the US is good with its promises.

It’s the same reason the US dollar is the reserve currency… the US govt knows how to keep it reasonably stable and has decades of success at it.

Does the US use this to their advantage? Sure. But it doesn’t matter… you just need to be better than the next guy. Just observe the 100 year history of many countries: their institutions 100 years ago are much different from today. No one likes uncertainty.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#240

Post by lern_too_spel »

nradov wrote: post #222
lifeisstillgood wrote: post #201

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

How is that a "problem"? What is preventing other countries from building tech winners? The USA isn't launching missiles to destroy the next foreign Nvidia or Meta competitor.

You could just as well ask what is preventing every other state in the US from building tech winners.
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