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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#211
post #14

This is an interesting take, because it contrasts with GDP PPP [0] which is suggesting that America is in fact being overtaken by its rivals although it has managed to outpace the EU. China is claiming to already be ahead and India is well on track to gain absolute economic ascendancy relative to the US. And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they…

The EU is number one in quality of life and that’s all that matters to me. If we work just hard enough to maintain and maybe even improve it, other countries can do their pissing contest.

You forgot to mention that this quality of life is bought with debt and deficits that have been running for the last 30 years.

Look at what's happening in France for proof that this is just not sustainable. The US has a massive advantage tough,their currency is the global currency accepted and needed everywhere that is backed by the US army. Much less so the Euro.

The cost of all these social programs has to come from somewhere and currently the majority of these costs are shouldered by the middle class that is being squeezed to the max and speaking as someone from the middle class, I can assure you that having a couple of extra weeks of holiday and more job safety (if you are into that sort of thing) is not worth 55% to 65% of my gross income.

Even universal healthcare is crumbling now.

At some point the EU will need to get it's productivity up and become competitive once again or all this quality of life will have to go as it won't be financially possible to continue on this path.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#212
post #108

My two cents: the U.S. owes much of its economic strength to its robust legal framework. It provides a system where complex business disputes can be handled and enforced effectively, creating trust and predictability for investors and entrepreneurs. This institutional strength is often overlooked but is critical for fostering innovation and long-term economic growth. Incidentally, recent Nobel laureates in economic s…

Doesn't the EU also have a robust legal framework?

There is EU law, which is enacted across all EU members. But there is no such thing as a EU legal framework, neither is there a fiscal one if we are focusing on business.

A debt dispute could be resolved in less than 4 months or dragged for close to a decade depending on which EU state you have a business.

Same goes for fiscal law. Some countries have had pretty much the same rates and taxation arrangements for decades. Some countries change their fiscal load on businesses as much as twice in one year. Both cases are technically 'the EU'.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#213

One thing this article doesn't touch on is the soaring government debt, which is now really quite big: 120%, and IIRC if you add municipal debt, it's more like 140%. That is high. It also seems like much of the recent growth has been fueled by this debt. It's unclear how this is going to unwind. America can afford, apparently, to run their deficit hot, but not forever and without limit. So at some point they have to…

> So at some point they have to start cutting expenditure and paying that debt off.

They don't have to cut expenditures at all. Since the Fed controls rates, they can manage the debt by adjusting interest rates. There's nothing preventing them from driving interest rates below 0% and being paid to accept money. And the Fed can buy T-Bonds at below market rates and slowly destroy excess money in the economy in a controlled fashion.

Something to keep in mind is that US government debt is integral to the economy. It's a stable way for entities hold US dollars as cash, and it's the only mechanism for them to hold large sums of US dollars in cash.

It's fine (and expected) for US government debt to continue to increase forever, it's just a number in a spreadsheet. The only real risk is the potential for a default. But even then, if you have $4 trillion dollars, what are you going to do with it instead of buying t-bonds? Exchange it for Euros and risk the impacts of currency fluctuation? And what will the buyers do with those dollars? At some point, someone is going to want to bank those dollars in savings, and that means buying t-bonds (directly, or indirectly), and the risk of default merely becomes a factor in an equation for the holder.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#215
post #197

Not a single word about shale oil and gas revolution, that started around 15 years ago? The US now has the one of the cheapest energy on earth, and probably the cheapest among the countries that matter. Pour all that cheap gas and oil onto an economy that was already a leader and you get lots of impressive growth.

That's the gist of it, especially since the "IT revoluion" (for lack of a better word) seems to have cooled off in the early 2010-ish, i.e. exactly when the shale revolution started doing its thing (and, no, I don't count the recent AI hype as being worthy of getting called as "revolutionary"). That shale revolution has also come with big opportunity costs reductions, because the US didn't have to geo-strategically care about the Middle East and the oil there all that much, at least not as much as to send real feet on the ground there, with all the associated costs.

With that said, there's also the danger of the US following on Britain's steps from the 1980s up until the 2000s, i.e. to rely on this shale/oil bonanza and not care about (internal) structural reforms that are in dire need of being enacted. At some point the shale money will not be there anymore (the shale gas will have run out, the world's car-fleet turns to electric en masse etc), and if the Americans don't carry out the necessary reforms sooner rather than later then that future "no more shale-gas money" moment will come at a very, very bad time for them. I said it's similar to Britain's situation because things started going downhill there as soon as the North Sea oil&gas money started thinning out.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#216

Thomas Sowell says that equality of opportunity leads to inequality of outcome. And this is the main difference between America and the rest of the world. The articles cites innovation-growth v cost-cutting as sources of increased productivity, and this parallels this dichotomy. People interested in equality of outcome and a level playing field have to compete on cost. There's a social stigma against sticking out and…

America was the number one economy while having state enforced segregation.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#217

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

Can you expand on this? What do you mean by "monetized in the US stock market"?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#219

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

Can you expand on this? What do you mean by "monetized in the US stock market"?

I'm not GP, but they probably meant "realized" (not "monetized")

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#220
post #108

My two cents: the U.S. owes much of its economic strength to its robust legal framework. It provides a system where complex business disputes can be handled and enforced effectively, creating trust and predictability for investors and entrepreneurs. This institutional strength is often overlooked but is critical for fostering innovation and long-term economic growth. Incidentally, recent Nobel laureates in economic s…

One thing that I believe is overlooked is that two party system helps in the sense that both party knows they are here in the long run, and while both party talks extreme economic plans, they just don't go forward with anything, just some tariff here and there. In lot of other countries you don't know how extreme the ruling party would be in next few decades.
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