How Blackjack Works (2007) • Hacker News Board

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#31

Post by glitchc » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 3:13 AM UTC

onekorg wrote: post #12

imglorp wrote: post #2

Is card counting still possible, or have casinos implemented enough countermeasures to defeat its advantage?

Advantage play in Black Jack boils down to: 1. Placing minimum bets when odds are in the casino's favor. 2. Placing large bets when odds are in the player's favor. This makes the betting patterns of solo counters very different and easily identifiable from average joes. Some players do try to add some variance and make intentional non-optimal plays to avoid detection. But every non-optimal play costs money and doing…

In blackjack the bet is usually made before any of the cards are dealt, at least in all the locales I've played. Can't judge odds a priori unless card counting.

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#32

Post by xtiansimon » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 3:14 AM UTC

onekorg wrote: post #12

imglorp wrote: post #2

Is card counting still possible, or have casinos implemented enough countermeasures to defeat its advantage?

Advantage play in Black Jack boils down to: 1. Placing minimum bets when odds are in the casino's favor. 2. Placing large bets when odds are in the player's favor. This makes the betting patterns of solo counters very different and easily identifiable from average joes. Some players do try to add some variance and make intentional non-optimal plays to avoid detection. But every non-optimal play costs money and doing…

I think you also have to rely on your neighbor?

I played a few hands in Vegas on a lark while attending a conference. I was resoundingly scolded for taking someone else’s cards because I should have stayed rather than hit.

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#33

Post by glitchc » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 3:19 AM UTC

A large spread between min and max bet coupled with a frequently shuffled deck makes martingale a surprisingly effective strategy. It's non-intuitive but it works.

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#34

Post by User23 » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 3:22 AM UTC

imglorp wrote: post #2

Is card counting still possible, or have casinos implemented enough countermeasures to defeat its advantage?

It's quite easy. And strip casino pit bosses don't even care. I once personally witnessed one mocking a poor counter by calling out the count for him. And they're right not to. The average person will be ruined with a 10% edge[1], so why should the casinos care if some tourist is managing half a percent? The counter making $600k a year at the tables is a cool story, but as I always joke when I'm at the tables, I do my real gambling with options, cards are just recreation.

Where they come down hard is team play. So wonging and such is going to get you backed off, if not trespassed, pretty much immediately if they catch you.

If you do want to try your hand at counting, I recommend starting with a simple ace/five count[2]. It's easy enough that you can still have fun bantering without messing it up, even after a few drinks.

And the other trick for being a successful grinding counter is to toke liberally. When all the employees, including the pit bosses, like having you around, it makes you considerably less likely to get backed off.

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.01427

[2] https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/ace-five-count/

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#35

Post by User23 » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 3:25 AM UTC

lambda wrote: post #27

hsbauauvhabzb wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it theoretically possible to beat the casino edge in either scenario?

Yes. It is. And if the casino realizes that you're doing it, you'll be banned from the casino. So most people who do this come up with clever ways to continue to do so while being less easy to detect, like having multiple people work together. One person stays at the table, betting at a fairly constant rate, while signaling to a partner when the odds are in the players favor so the partner joins the table and places…

> Yes. It is. And if the casino realizes that you're doing it, you'll be banned from the casino.

This is true on Fremont Street, where the pit bosses are fossils and you can probably still get a one way free ride to the desert if you piss off the wrong people. Meanwhile, in Paradise, nobody cares unless it's team play. At least not at the tables the public can get to (so max bet around 20k).

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#36

Post by User23 » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 3:33 AM UTC

vikingerik wrote: post #11

imglorp wrote: post #2

Is card counting still possible, or have casinos implemented enough countermeasures to defeat its advantage?

Counting is always possible, nobody can tell if you're just counting in your head. What's detectable and counterable is the way to get advantage from it: you must make your bet much bigger when the count is favorable. That behavior pattern alone is enough for a casino to choose to toss you - they don't even have to prove that you were counting. Counting works in general because the player's advantage is concentrated…

There's also sneaky shenanigans like sitting in the right-most chair and eyeing the bottom of the shoe on shuffle.

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#37

Post by craz8 » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 4:37 AM UTC

The real story of the whole of the MIT blackjack team is quite something. When you ask someone if they’re still allowed to play in this casino and they reply with “if I use my real name, then yes”.

The 80s were a wild time, kids!

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#38

Post by treetalker » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 5:24 AM UTC

glitchc wrote: post #33

A large spread between min and max bet coupled with a frequently shuffled deck makes martingale a surprisingly effective strategy. It's non-intuitive but it works.

Positive expected value, or effective as in "lose slower"?

My understanding was that Martingale is (almost?) always negative expected value.

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#39

Post by lmm » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 7:22 AM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #14

colechristensen wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possible enough so to encourage new people to think they can try, not possible enough to become a millionaire. Possible enough that to be elite your life turns into a sort of arbitrage trying to scam casinos in exchange for a mediocre salary.

It's not a scam to use math to your advantage. Casinos do it all the time.

Casinos are a scam, if a legal one.

Re: How Blackjack Works (2007)

#40

Post by misja111 » Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 7:48 AM UTC

onekorg wrote: post #12

imglorp wrote: post #2

Is card counting still possible, or have casinos implemented enough countermeasures to defeat its advantage?

Advantage play in Black Jack boils down to: 1. Placing minimum bets when odds are in the casino's favor. 2. Placing large bets when odds are in the player's favor. This makes the betting patterns of solo counters very different and easily identifiable from average joes. Some players do try to add some variance and make intentional non-optimal plays to avoid detection. But every non-optimal play costs money and doing…

The reason casino's add more decks, is so they can use them up only half the way and then reshuffle again. This way the chance of a big unbalance to build up of which a counter could profit, becomes a lot smaller.

Counters can still make a profit but it's harder. But there are some extra tricks they can use: for instance they can come with a group, set a couple of players at tables and have the others walk around. As soon as some table becomes profitable, the playing member will give some sign and his colleagues will sit down and play at his table.