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The size of BYD's factory

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Re: The size of BYD's factory

#601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's a type of Western mind that gets distracted by their scale, and getting to build things we built a century ago Where in the US can one find the secret, cross-country high-speed rail built in the roaring twenties?! There's also a type of western mind that automatically dismisses the odds of a different country succeeding, based on nothing but the fact that they are using a different approach (on the surface)…

Asking why we don't have a high speed cross country railroad in a nation that had most of its airports build out 60 years ago is an excellent pattern match for odd complaints.* Thinking whether you're a Sinophile is a subject of discussion, and then most damningly, your closing thought being whether other people think "the west will prevail" shows there's a lot more going on here than the idea that maybe overcapacity…

"cross country" doesn't mean east-west. china doesn't have a straight east-west high speed line that goes across the entire country because the population is overwhelmingly concentrated in the east, and there are routes that cross north-south and all through all the major population centers.

china also had many airports before they built the high speed system.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People take HSR sometimes because it's heavily subsidized, especially in China. Without government intervention rail can't compete against airports and roads. China's railway is in a staggering amount of debt due to mass overbuilding of the sort that would have bankrupted any normal company in a market economy long ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/vt7jrz/a_whopping_90... > China is not at all like the USS…

> People take HSR sometimes because it's heavily subsidized, especially in China. Most forms of transportation are subsidized. Good transportation infrastructure benefits the entire economy, so governments subsidize it. The fact that people can travel between cities easily and quickly facilitates business. > China's railway is in a staggering amount of debt due to mass overbuilding HSR is heavily utilized in China. A…

the low consumption as part of GDP also has to do with different ways of reporting GDP. they dont include some government funded services in the consumption share of GDP, when similar services are included in other countries consumption shares.

china consumes 30% of cars, 20% of mobile phones, 40% of televisions, 25% of furniture, etc. in basically every consumer category they exceed 20%. how can that be true and at the same time they have an abnormally low "true" consumption rate?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-household...

https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/consumption-in-china-is-it-rea...

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#603
post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's a type of Western mind that gets distracted by their scale, and getting to build things we built a century ago Where in the US can one find the secret, cross-country high-speed rail built in the roaring twenties?! There's also a type of western mind that automatically dismisses the odds of a different country succeeding, based on nothing but the fact that they are using a different approach (on the surface)…

People forget that China existed before communism. Hell only Mao's idiotic experiment only lasted a few decades. China has always been capitalist. It's why you can find a store run by Chinese expats in the middle of the Suriname jungle.

that cant possibly be true because capitalism has only existed for a small portion of the thousands of years of chinese history. capitalism doesn't just mean having stores, or having markets

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#604

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my visits to China, lI've come to conclude that Chinese people have more property rights than Westerners . I saw roads built around houses because villagers refused to sell. Eminent domain doesn't seem to exist there

Details matter. Chinese have more in some areas, less in others. China also sometimes does things just for a show, so maybe that villager was allowed to now sell so they could off how progressive they were - while they take lots of other property. China also has a corruption problem (as does all countries!), maybe that villager belonged to the CCP and so had extra rights. Until we get down to details it is hard to sa…

many, many chinese people WANT their property to get eminent domained, because they can get well compensated for it. sometimes it's even above market rates or they'll be given multiple apartments (that they can then rent out) in exchange for giving up property that will be developed. a lot of older housing stock that the owners dont even live in is being held on to and not sold just because these people are hoping they get bought out for a big development project which is better than actually selling the place

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#605

So much roof space, so little PV. I guess in China they don't do rooftop PV as much because the regulations allow for cheaper installations somewhere on a meadow?

they do a lot of rooftop PV in china. maybe not on this one factory but it's extremely common and even mandatory for all new industrial developments in some chinese cities now

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#606
post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The air quality in China is lot better now than a decade ago. The smog was so bad in 2012 and I remembered the AQI hitting 999 (the max it would go) on more than one occasions during Beijing winter. Went back again in early 2024 and it was so much better, pollution still noticeable on more days than not but at least half the time I spent had AQI below 100.

True and good on them, but I suspect you’re not hanging out in a lot of the backwater provinces where industrial development is happening

i've been to a lot of smaller cities, provinces, and rural areas in china over the past decade+ and it really has got a lot better everywhere. it's not fake and not limited to a few developed areas

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#607
post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People take HSR sometimes because it's heavily subsidized, especially in China. Without government intervention rail can't compete against airports and roads. China's railway is in a staggering amount of debt due to mass overbuilding of the sort that would have bankrupted any normal company in a market economy long ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/vt7jrz/a_whopping_90... > China is not at all like the USS…

The TGV in France makes a profit. As does the Shinkansen in Japan. Intercity routes in the UK aren't high speed but are all profitable. Rural rail lines are not profitable and commuter lines are about break-even, depending on the fares charged. E.g. the tube in London is break even as it receives no operating subsidy, but it's quite expensive compared to e.g. the Paris / Madrid / Berlin metros. If you want to lubrica…

TGV doesn't make a profit by any normal accounting standards. As far as I know every line except Paris-Lyon has received large subsidies. The Bordeaux-Toulouse line requires a subsidy of 35 EUR per year per passenger for the next 50 years. Nor are tickets even cheap as a consequence. Supposedly it's cheaper to drive the moment you have at least two people in the car (I haven't checked that claim, probably there are routes where it's not true).

Rail in the UK requires subsidies. Once again you can play games with non-standard accounting, like by excluding the cost of track and stations, but those are the bulk of the costs. If rail subsidies were zeroed tomorrow every single railway in the UK would go bankrupt the day after. This is also true for the Tube which certainly isn't break even - where on earth did you read that? They were once able to cover daily operating costs from ticket fares, but Sadiq Khan put an end to that and now they can't even cover operational expenditure without subsidies from central government. Even back when they were able to balance the daily books they only achieved that by starving capital expenditure and not building up any kind of profit margin, meaning that any kind of upgrades or repairs have to come out of additional subsidies.

https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/how-we-work/how-we-ar...

The Shinkansen has a long history of building unprofitable lines which led to JR's eventual "bankruptcy" in 1987, ending up 28 trillion yen in debt. After being semi-privatized they were given a lot more leeway to shut down their unprofitable lines, but even so, it's viable mostly due to the government ensuring they have access to nearly unlimited risk free and repayment-schedule free money (ZIRP).

Passenger railways are fundamentally not possible to run as ordinary free market companies. They were run that way once, but the railways were built out on the back of huge private sector investments in infrastructure. Governments the world over then nationalized them and redirected funds towards staff/union pay settlements or reducing ticket fares, cutting infrastructure spending to compensate. The result is a massive overhang of tech debt that now can't be paid off without unrealistically high ticket price rises.

British productivity is low because it has cheap labour due to effectively unlimited immigration. Companies invest in productivity improvements when labour becomes expensive, otherwise they don't bother, it's easier to just throw more people at a problem. None of that is really a secret, it just doesn't get talked about much because the British ruling classes don't like to criticize immigration lest they be called racist - however, this is a purely economic issue. Railways hardly matter for productivity and commuting may even harm it for many people, as evidenced by the popularity of working from home.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People take HSR sometimes because it's heavily subsidized, especially in China. Without government intervention rail can't compete against airports and roads. China's railway is in a staggering amount of debt due to mass overbuilding of the sort that would have bankrupted any normal company in a market economy long ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/vt7jrz/a_whopping_90... > China is not at all like the USS…

Air travel is also heavily subsidized, and road travel even more so. One of the real reasons for the interstate highway system (not the purported reason -- defense -- that got the bill through Congress) was to break the back of the rail monopolists (and, importantly, the rail unions). The American state chose to literally invent a whole new kind of socialized transport (marketed as a form of consumer individualism) t…

Air travel is taxed not subsidized. As far as I know there are no subsidies to the airline industry, unless you get into very ideological arguments by claiming the US military is a form of subsidy to anything that depends on fossil fuels. Double checking Wikipedia confirms this. After a huge page listing all the taxes, there's one unsourced paragraph claiming that "some" governments subsidise air travel with a "who?" dispute filed against the claim:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_taxation_and_subsidie...

Road travel is usually profitable for the government as fuel taxes cover more than the costs of building and maintaining the roads. Drivers end up subsidizing rail in every country that I know of. It's possible EV cars will start to change this.

US passenger rail is nationalized. Amtrak is majority owned by the federal government, for example.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People take HSR sometimes because it's heavily subsidized, especially in China. Without government intervention rail can't compete against airports and roads. China's railway is in a staggering amount of debt due to mass overbuilding of the sort that would have bankrupted any normal company in a market economy long ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/vt7jrz/a_whopping_90... > China is not at all like the USS…

> People take HSR sometimes because it's heavily subsidized, especially in China. Most forms of transportation are subsidized. Good transportation infrastructure benefits the entire economy, so governments subsidize it. The fact that people can travel between cities easily and quickly facilitates business. > China's railway is in a staggering amount of debt due to mass overbuilding HSR is heavily utilized in China. A…

Most forms of transport aren't subsidized. Air travel and road travel isn't. Cargo shipping isn't.

> The fact that people can travel between cities easily and quickly facilitates business.

Governments like claiming this but dig in and you'll find they have no robust evidence for it. It also just fails a quick reality check: if it were true then passenger railways would be profitable in their own right, as businesses would be happy to buy tickets for employees at their true costs. Yet passenger rail is never profitable and what we see in reality is lots of workers preferring to work from home than take even the subsidized railways into the cities.

You can argue for trains as a lifestyle thing, maybe even an environmental thing although EV are changing that. But you can't argue for them economically.

> HSR is heavily utilized in China.

HSR is famously mostly empty in China. Go read accounts of anyone who has travelled on the newer lines.

> Lower spending on consumption isn't because there aren't products on the shelves

Nobody stacks shelves with products that will never be sold. Lower spending on consumption means the goods are being exported, and Chinese people aren't buying what they make because they don't have enough trust in the system to do so. Hence so much money being ploughed into real estate bubbles (an attempt to save money in something that's hard to confiscate).

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russian intelligence hiding bad news entirely from Russian leadership is a long standing tradition. It's how we get three-day special operations in Ukraine. Case in point: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-war-russia-genera...

I think that is a different issue. There’s an incentive to not report problems upwards if there’s a tradition of shooting the messenger.

Yeltsin was purged from the party because he gave a "secret speech" calling for more aggressive economic reforms, and then placed under so much pressure he tried to commit suicide. The tradition of shooting messengers was alive and well in the USSR.
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