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The size of BYD's factory

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Re: The size of BYD's factory

#551

Post by jcranmer »

zokier wrote: post #153

It's 2024, we can do better than blurry horribly blown out pictures these days. Check for example https://mapper.acme.com/?ll=34.39719,113.94792&z=15&t=SL&mar... for cleaner shot of the site (zoom in few notches for extra details). Google Maps annoyingly cuts half-way through the factory site. edit: that ACME mapper image looks to be from mid-2023, in more recent imagery the construction on the east side has been com…

The thing about that image that amuses me the most is that there is a local grid pattern that isn't aligned north-south, and the factory goes "don't care" and instead smashes itself through everything on a straight cardinal direction alignment.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#552

Post by dherikb »

xtracto wrote: post #479
afh1 wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here in Brazil. Even in the countryside.

I'm curious: Do Chinese cars have the stigma of being crap quality in other countries? Here in Mexico most anecdotes of people buying Chinese cars are that after less than a year something broke and they had to take it to the repair shop, where it stayed for a very long time due to a lack of pieces even by the manufacturer.

Some years ago, yes. But not so much now in Brazil.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#553

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

mike_hearn wrote: post #444
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nowhere because the USA has an excellent internal flight and interstate highway system instead. Railways were already becoming uncompetitive by the 1920s and now live on mostly in parts of the world where they already exist, where land is at a premium. The fact that railways were becoming uncompetitive in the mid-1900s is why high-speed rail was developed. The Japanese pioneered high-speed rail in the 1960s, dramat…

People take HSR sometimes because it's heavily subsidized, especially in China. Without government intervention rail can't compete against airports and roads. China's railway is in a staggering amount of debt due to mass overbuilding of the sort that would have bankrupted any normal company in a market economy long ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/vt7jrz/a_whopping_90... > China is not at all like the USS…

> People take HSR sometimes because it's heavily subsidized, especially in China.

Most forms of transportation are subsidized. Good transportation infrastructure benefits the entire economy, so governments subsidize it. The fact that people can travel between cities easily and quickly facilitates business.

> China's railway is in a staggering amount of debt due to mass overbuilding

HSR is heavily utilized in China. A lot of the continued rail construction is because existing lines are butting up against capacity constraints.

> Products for export, yes.

I'm talking about products in their own shops. Chinese consumers have access to a much wider array of consumer products than Americans have.

> private consumption accounts for just 39% of the economy

Now, you're mixing completely different topics. Lower spending on consumption isn't because there aren't products on the shelves. It has to do with things like Chinese people's propensity to save, China directing more of its GDP into investment, and on the flipside, the United States' trade deficit.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#554

Post by aguaviva »

digitalsurgeonz wrote: post #411
t0bia_s wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When your natural resources shrinking, you need to expand if your entire economy depending on that sources. China will soon be more aggressive as any other empires.

>China will soon be more aggressive as any other empires. in its entire history it has never invaded outside its traditional borders, and it achieved all this without invading or enslaving people. It will continue this way in future too :)

In its entire history it has never invaded outside its traditional borders

Vietnam, 1979.

Support for North Korea's invasion of South Korea 1950-1953.

Invasion of Indian-held areas in 1962 based on extremely dubious claims.

Not an invasion, but its support for the genocidal Khmer Rouge in the 1970s (who ended up invading Vietnam with Chinese arms) was quite significant.

Its current menacing of the Phillipines.

Claims about "traditional borders" are almost invariably nonsense.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#555

Post by petesergeant »

fspeech wrote: post #546
petesergeant wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The whole "demographics" scare about China is clear nonsense I mean it's probably fair to call it the consensus opinion, so a claim as extraordinary as calling it "clear nonsense" probably requires extraordinary proof?

One needs to disaggregate data to get a full picture of what happens in China due to the rapid evolution of things. Forty years ago very few people went to college. It's a big bulge of population that are not going to upgrade their skills (mostly retired but things like learning to drive or using the popular apps are still difficult for most who have not already learned). They are also very used to hardship and will…

“Elderly Chinese people are different from elderly people elsewhere because they’re hardier” doesn’t feel like the extraordinary proof the earlier extraordinary claims required. Are they that different from people in other middle income countries like Thailand?

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#556

Post by aguaviva »

snapcaster wrote: post #436
Teever wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because that's what authoritarians invariably do. They abhor liberal democracies and seek to extend their domineering control over as many people as they can. The CCP is an absolutely tyrannical organization that denies their own citizens the rights that you and I take for granted. Why would they ever desire their neighbours to have what they deny their own people? Look no further than Hong Kong and North Korea to se…

It's so funny to read stuff like this and compare it to the united states which during my lifetime has invaded so many different countries and killed countless people across the world. Not saying China is great, but come on man if you had to pick one country that is invasion happy it's not china...

If you had to pick one country that is invasion happy it's not China.

Its regime is somewhat conservative in this regard, but happily orders of invasions of other countries when it sees the need.

See also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42240482

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#557

Post by missedthecue »

xtracto wrote: post #479
afh1 wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here in Brazil. Even in the countryside.

I'm curious: Do Chinese cars have the stigma of being crap quality in other countries? Here in Mexico most anecdotes of people buying Chinese cars are that after less than a year something broke and they had to take it to the repair shop, where it stayed for a very long time due to a lack of pieces even by the manufacturer.

In Peru a few years ago they had a mixed reputation but now they are mostly considered good value for money. It reminds me of Korean car reputations in the 1990s. Now you are as likely to buy a Hyundai or Kia as you are a Toyota, VW, or Chevy. Chinese cars are quickly entering a similar market position.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#558

Post by coliveira »

petesergeant wrote: post #555
fspeech wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One needs to disaggregate data to get a full picture of what happens in China due to the rapid evolution of things. Forty years ago very few people went to college. It's a big bulge of population that are not going to upgrade their skills (mostly retired but things like learning to drive or using the popular apps are still difficult for most who have not already learned). They are also very used to hardship and will…

“Elderly Chinese people are different from elderly people elsewhere because they’re hardier” doesn’t feel like the extraordinary proof the earlier extraordinary claims required. Are they that different from people in other middle income countries like Thailand?

The point is that old people in US and specially Europe expect to maintain their life standards, which are quite high. That's difficult in the middle of a demographic downturn. But that's not the case for elderly people in China. Even if their numbers do increase over time, the productivity of younger generations is so large compared to them, that they can effectively be supported with little problems for the Chinese government. So in a sense China is lucky that their economic growth is occurring exactly at the point where the demographic change is starting to happen.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#559

Post by phatfish »

XorNot wrote: post #293
aurareturn wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Affordable EVs are a solved problem. China has solved it. The world responded by putting up tariffs.

I already own a car. An affordable EV is a thing I'll buy in like 15 more years when my already 20 year old Toyota finally dies maybe. If I bought it sooner, then my car would just go into the second hand market and do the same thing. "Affordable" isn't changing anything: I don't need another car, and I'm not going to prematurely crush mine into a cube.

I drive very little, so having a fossil car sitting in the drive is more carbon efficient than buying a new EV that had to be built and shipped.

Somone who drives a lot may be able to scrap their fossil car, buy a new EV and start saving on carbon emissions in a much shorter time than me.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#560

Post by coliveira »

mschuster91 wrote: post #332
refulgentis wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are prima facie wrong, their overcapacity is bad and actively harmful, this isn't a sign of it succeeding, its a sign of desperation from it failing. There's a type of Western mind that gets distracted by their scale, and getting to build things we built a century ago. Dazzled by the spectacle, this misses that their economy is characterized by deflationary headwinds due to a massive, massive over-investment in…

> There's a type of Western mind that gets distracted by their scale, and getting to build things we built a century ago. The thing is, overcapacity combined with the 996 week and labor exploitation can be used to outcompete any Western company - especially the old ones, who are spread around the country. Look at the supply chain of the established (i.e. everyone but Tesla) companies... dozens of manufacturing plants…

Tesla may be better than traditional auto companies, however it is not the wonder people talk about. They take years to get a car ready, WHEN they can do it. Think about the Cyber Roadster and the long iterations to the Cyber Truck.
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