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New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

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Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

#31

Post by benchmarkist »

akira2501 wrote: post #14
benchmarkist wrote: post #5

As long as it is militarily and commercially viable then the number of satellites will continue increasing, regardless of what academics have to say about collision rates. As per usual this is a coordination problem and in case people have not noticed nations are becoming less coordinated and more insular.

> in case people have not noticed nations are becoming less coordinated and more insular. And what is your yardstick for measuring this? As far as I can tell this is the opposite of true. It's a popular national news meme but I don't believe it's been measured in any reliable way.

[flagged]

Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

#32

Post by ljsprague »

ryankshaw wrote: post #29
mapt wrote: post #8

The current trajectory is that SpaceX proved the commercial and military viability of an LEO megaconstellation, repeatedly lowering their target altitudes and raising their satellite count because of debris and cell size concerns... And now the rest of the world is trying to catch up in a sort of arms race, and not taking any care about debris concerns. The most tempting orbits are the ones in upper LEO that permit t…

Is Kessler syndrome the Great Filter ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter )? As in, is it the thing that makes it so no one else has broken out of their planet to come visit us? I could totally see it being the case that as soon as a civilization gets good enough at putting stuff into space, they start putting a lot of stuff into space and then things start crashing into each other to the point that they can’…

I would guess that it would still be possible to send things beyond earth's orbit with only a low probability of collision with debris but perhaps I'm wrong.

Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

#33

Post by to11mtm »

ljsprague wrote: post #32
ryankshaw wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Kessler syndrome the Great Filter ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter )? As in, is it the thing that makes it so no one else has broken out of their planet to come visit us? I could totally see it being the case that as soon as a civilization gets good enough at putting stuff into space, they start putting a lot of stuff into space and then things start crashing into each other to the point that they can’…

I would guess that it would still be possible to send things beyond earth's orbit with only a low probability of collision with debris but perhaps I'm wrong.

"Low" is tough to say until someone does some proper sort of 'true mapping' of space debris in the range somehow. Protection would require a lot of complexity and cost due to the need for shielding and the delta-v to move it up there.

Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

#34

Post by minetest2048 »

leptons wrote: post #27
nwiswell wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It realistically affects practically nobody alive Do people in the Global South not use GPS or consume weather forecasts?

Sure, GPS is nice to have, but we lived without it for many centuries before it, it's also a "first-world-problem" if it goes down. GPS is also notoriously susceptible to ground-based jamming. And because of that there's also other ways to track position. Weather forecasts are nice to have, but often wrong. My original comment was framed more towards space travel.

The thing is that GPS doesn't just do positioning. If we lost GPS then we can just look at road signs (hopefully). GPS also provides time synchronization to a lot of very important telecom infrastructure. To prevent 4G base stations and digital TV transmitters from interfering with each other, their transmit reference clock frequency need to be disciplined to within 50 ppb and their time need to be synchronized to less then 1 us.

No GPS means no 4G and no digital TV. And technology leapfrog effect means that third world countries will be significantly affected, as they jumped directly to mobile phone: https://www.cio.com/article/194000/what-does-technology-leap... . And countries are moving toward digital TV from analog TV: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_television_transition because they want to free up the spectrum for cellular network.

This is bad. The transmitter towers aren't moving anywhere soon, so the obvious solution is to move them to fiber timing network. Wired is always more reliable then wireless anyway, ask Linus Tech Tips. Only China understands this though: https://www.gpsworld.com/china-finishing-high-precision-grou... and https://cpl.iphy.ac.cn/article/10.1088/0256-307X/41/6/064202 . EU is moving toward that: https://www.gpsworld.com/europe-moving-toward-a-timing-backb... . US is hopeless

Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

#35

Post by to11mtm »

resters wrote: post #18

Positioning a large, armored satellite in low or mid-Earth orbit significantly enhances its strategic value for both offensive and defensive anti-satellite operations. Such a platform could serve as a pivotal asset in maintaining orbital dominance, offering rapid response capabilities to neutralize threats and protect critical infrastructure. In other words, welcome various "death stars" to keep order against malicio…

That helps nothing on the civilian side. Blowing up a sat will do nothing but raise long term risk.

Some sort of platform that can launch 'space drones' to deorbit a dead satellite before it crashes or if something else would happened to cause a collision, that could be useful, but, probably expensive.

Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

#36

Post by akira2501 »

benchmarkist wrote: post #31
akira2501 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in case people have not noticed nations are becoming less coordinated and more insular. And what is your yardstick for measuring this? As far as I can tell this is the opposite of true. It's a popular national news meme but I don't believe it's been measured in any reliable way.

[flagged]

> so you can greatly simplify your sentence

You didn't need to use "greatly" here because the suggestion you're offering without being asked is not particularly great or meaningful.

> I think that would greatly aid in your online communications.

I communicate online just fine, thank you, I'm also happy to be an individual and to allow that individuality to be expressed through my communications.

Thanks again for the unwelcome and unnecessary advice. Please don't use your time to police other peoples writing. It's rude.

Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

#38

Post by maxglute »

perihelions wrote: post #30
mapt wrote: post #8

The current trajectory is that SpaceX proved the commercial and military viability of an LEO megaconstellation, repeatedly lowering their target altitudes and raising their satellite count because of debris and cell size concerns... And now the rest of the world is trying to catch up in a sort of arms race, and not taking any care about debris concerns. The most tempting orbits are the ones in upper LEO that permit t…

Why would any of the US' adversaries agree to that? We have SpaceX, and they do not; lowering the altitude of megaconstellations is asymmetrically far more costly for them then it is for us. Stopping China's (highly strategic, military) satellite constellations isn't a "small amount of diplomacy". It's an impossibility. (It's even their declared planning that deliberate Kessler cascades are on the table [0]—to try to…

I think OP is suggesting US concede to sharing 500km orbits that SpaceX has disproportionately squatted rights to, since current international law is first come first serve. Where concede is to rejigger international law to increase density of 500km so others wouldn't have to go higher, i.e. PRC mega constellations going ~800 because ~500 mostly taken. Or in ops suggestion, free for all. This is more costly for US since it saves entrants from going extra 300km, but imo proximity also greatly enhances chance for friction... i.e. if everyone chilling around same plane, and it's going to get magnitude more croweded, expect a lot more overt/hidden space war assets there to trigger kessler.

Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

#39

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mapt wrote: post #8

The current trajectory is that SpaceX proved the commercial and military viability of an LEO megaconstellation, repeatedly lowering their target altitudes and raising their satellite count because of debris and cell size concerns... And now the rest of the world is trying to catch up in a sort of arms race, and not taking any care about debris concerns. The most tempting orbits are the ones in upper LEO that permit t…

> don't know how to sell the urgency of this predicament

We need to start by understanding it. I'm having trouble finding this paper right now. But to date, all calculations have shown that Kessler syndrome as a generalised phenomenon is incredibly hard to trigger. Even intentionally. Especially in LEO. (Intentionally triggering it is of interest for strategic ASAT denial.)

> the mass of potential impactors quickly forms a long tailed lognormal distribution that denies us space for centuries

No, it denies certain orbits. (Again, barring some new orbital dynamic haven been discovered by this paper.)

Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]

#40

Post by JumpCrisscross »

to11mtm wrote: post #33
ljsprague wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would guess that it would still be possible to send things beyond earth's orbit with only a low probability of collision with debris but perhaps I'm wrong.

"Low" is tough to say until someone does some proper sort of 'true mapping' of space debris in the range somehow. Protection would require a lot of complexity and cost due to the need for shielding and the delta-v to move it up there.

> until someone does some proper sort of 'true mapping' of space debris in the range somehow

You look at which satellites poofed and then figure out the maximum extent their debris could have drifted.

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