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The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

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Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#501

Post by bluGill »

adolph wrote: post #256
toast0 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> PHEV is just too complicated to support long term (imo). PHEV isn't that much more complex than an ICE. The transaxle is typically mechanically simpler, and you have two electric motor/generators instead of an electric motor (starter) and an electric generator (alternator). There's a big battery you need to find room for, and the power wiring. And the engine control is significantly different, but if it doesn't wor…

>> PHEV is just too complicated to support long term (imo). > PHEV isn't that much more complex than an ICE. I've been an owner/operator of two Gen3 Prii for 14 years and agree in practice even though in theory I would agree with the complexity argument. The one maintenance hit for both was for the vacuum pump needed for brakes/etc because the car cannot assume the engine is always running. Toyota has moved to hybrid…

Vacuum not being reliable has been a thing for decades - diesel engines don't produce vacuum and so vacuum pumps are available off the shelf. If anything those vacuum pumps are oversized for cars since they are mostly used on large trucks.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#502

Post by bluGill »

ghaff wrote: post #322
yurishimo wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't more widely supported because they are more expensive and more complicated to manufacture with a higher potential for more stuff to go wrong. Until the engine that powers a PHEV is nearly drop-in ready for a replacement (for example, going to your local auto parts store and buying a replacement like a battery) then companies need to have service technicians and production lines to support these "engines"…

People make the rental argument a lot. But having been in a ski house quite a few years back with a lot of New Yorkers who didn't own cars, I saw first-hand what a relative main in the neck it was to rent a car for the weekend (e.g. often having to go out to an airport and planning ahead). That's maybe fine if the economics are compelling but that probably assumes things like you even have a commute by car. And that…

If you drive an ICE that much you could be saving money vs renting a car when you need one. I've done the math, rental cars are expensive. Between the per day and per mile charges it doesn't take long to make up the cost of a cheap car. (if you insist on a new car of course that is much more expensive than a 10 year old car) I keep wanting to get rid of my truck that I only fill about 4x/year, but it turns out it is hard to rent a truck, as opposed to a truck shaped car. (I have found ways to do this, but those trucks are even more expensive than a car and they are out of the way)

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#503

Post by jerkstate »

epistasis wrote: post #421
jerkstate wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Since the local power company here is only paying 10 cents per kw for solar power (which they resell at greater profit) I think this is a common reason for disappointment in solar incentives. At least half of your power bill pays for transmission, and the half that pays for generation needs to be constructed such that the overall supply must meet the demand at all times, rather than simply supplying a number of kWh…

I'm not fully sold on this reasoning. Electricity on the local distribution node has a value equal to the cost of generation plus the distribution. That's the value of it, what we pay. So by supplying the kWh locally to neighbors, the grid costs have been avoided. But the value is still the same. Now, the T&D infrastructure has already been built, and the utility wants to get paid no matter what, but if they were a p…

Your excess solar power is not worth the retail power cost because it is not as reliable or plentiful as utility power. If you think your neighbor would pay you the same rate for your unreliable excess power as they pay the utility, you should start a power company!

The infrastructure has not “already been built” - it is constantly under expansion and maintenance, and the bonds used to fund construction also need to be repaid.

I think your mind frame is that the reason the grid is not smart enough to pay you what you think your excess unreliable power is worth (which you stated to be the entire retail cost of power, including transmission and distribution) is because of incompetence and corruption of the utility monopolies. I think that is a pretty uncharitable take. It’s a hard problem and people generally want reliable and cheap. You can’t make microgrids reliable and plentiful without a ton of diverse generation (which already exists on the macro-grid) OR a ton of storage, both of which are very expensive. It is a problem worth solving but it needs to be considered with a realistic view on what people are actually paying for when they pay their power bill.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#504

Post by bluGill »

robertlagrant wrote: post #293
mrguyorama wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Prius gets up to 50 mpg on the highway too, much better than ICE cousins.

How is that possible? What's it doing that ICE cars can't do on a highway?

An ICE is typically most fuel efficient at about 2000 RPM and 90% throttle (this is different for every engine of course, but those numbers are close enough for discussion). A typical car can be at 45% fuel efficiency if you can pull that off, but 90% throttle when cruising will bring your RPMs and thus ground speed up. A hybrid can use a smaller engine that can just barely keep your car moving at 90% throttle and use the electric to get acceleration up to those speeds.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#505

Post by j-bos »

asciimov wrote: post #329
GratiaTerra wrote: post #248

I took advantage of the IRA solar power and $7500 EV credit, now I have an off grid home all electric appliances and excess power for hot tubs and EV's. The Ford Lightning acts as a generator. This was the greatest most life changing and impactful legistlation ever: I've had $0 (ZERO!) in gasoline, LP, and electric utility bills since installation last year.

It's too bad that the only people benefiting from all green power subsidies are the people that least need them. We should be investing solar in lower income communities, as those people could really use cheaper utilities, and any saving they get would immediately go back into their communities.

Agreed with the caveat, I'm from a lower income area where solar has been on the up. Panels would get stolen often enough to warrant thoughful consideration.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#506

Post by redwall_hp »

ToucanLoucan wrote: post #118
MrHamburger wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if people would have money, there would be a demand. His point still stands.

I mean I think the distinction between "goods that are not wanted" and "goods that are wanted but are not affordable" is a significant one, but if you want to stick strictly to the terms of art in economics, then yes I suppose you're correct. And I didn't mean to argue his point, but rather to reinforce it. If goods, when they become cheaper, suddenly start moving again, then the goods themselves aren't really the is…

A car is an inelastic good that is priced beyond what the market can actually bear. This is why the used market is so insane: people make do with a secondary market because they need the good but can't afford it on the actual market. And now there's a supply crunch on that secondary market, because the primary one has risen so much.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#507

Post by pfdietz »

InDubioProRubio wrote: post #376
MR4D wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a way, that doesn’t matter for the US. Consider that the US has an enormous trade deficit. If the US brought to even, then all those exporting countries with large surpluses would be in bad shape. This is a complex problem, and when the US is the importer from the world, the mere decision to stop importing would send shockwaves through trade everywhere.

The problem is -the us exports one thing en mass- security. And its starting to use that for shakedowns- which is the moment everybody becomes his own sheriff.

And at this point that would also benefit the US. That mass security is not cheap.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#508

Post by bluGill »

ghaff wrote: post #344
slices wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 90% of my car trips are under 30 minutes, yes that would be worthwhile. The other 10% are beyond any practical battery range, so a BEV isn't an option.

I think you exaggerate about BEVs. I have a friend of mine who has a Boston condo and commutes with his Tesla to his house in Northern Vermont most weekends. I think he charges once along the way and then at home on both ends. That said I'm going to Maine next week and I would certainly have to track down convenient and reliable chargers. And there would probably be some trips--even in the Northeast--where they would…

That works, but EV chargers are rare enough that you can't just see the charge meter getting to low and get off at the next exit for a fill up like you can with a gas charge. If you don't pay attention you can end up with not enough charge make it to any charging station. People run out of gas too, but most cars the gas light comes at with 40 miles of range left - 40 miles of range won't always get you to any EV charger (and with different charging standards you cannot be sure your car can charge at them all though this is getting better and will likely be solved in a few years as we move to NACS).

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#509

Post by mikestew »

vundercind wrote: post #304
mikestew wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

40 years ago, the Yugo was sold in the U. S. for $4500. I’m not questioning the truth of your story, but I think it a poor basis for arguing that cars should be $10K today. The dealer obviously was willing to take a loss to get those Chevys off the lot.

MSRP in 2010 (first I could easily find from around the same period—this was a couple years later) for the worst Chevy Aveo was under $5,000, and MSRP was rather more aspirational (bullshitty) then than it seems to be now, as far as what cars actually sell for. This wasn't even that big a mark-down from MSRP.

Your source is wrong. No one was selling new cars in 2010 for $5000. (Source: me, and my memory isn't that bad yet.) That's the reason I brought up the Yugo: in order to sell a new car for $5000 in 1985, 25 years prior to your Aveo example, a company had to buy the leftover tooling of the Fiat 128 (one of the biggest pieces of shit I've ever owned) and cut even more corners.

So 25 years on, without even looking anything up, it's pretty reasonable to assume no one was selling a car for that same price and adding airbags and ABS for the U. S. market. But if one insists on a source, Motortrend said they sold for around $12K in 2010: https://www.motortrend.com/cars/chevrolet/aveo/2010/

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#510

Post by ac29 »

bane wrote: post #434

I can't believe that the average price of a car in the U.S. is almost $50k. For rapidly depreciating assets. Here I am working out TCO costs for a range of mid-sized cars for my next purchase, and trying to decide if the extra $2k for a Prius Prime over a Prius will beat the differential in fuel costs for my driving situation. I feel like a chump, but I know it's the smarter thing to do with my money. I coworker of m…

> Americans won't buy cheap cars

Sure they will, they'll even buy cheap EVs.

The highest lifetime EV sales in the US is the Leaf, Model 3/Y, and Bolt. They aren't at the top of the list because they're the best cars on the market, but because they are the cheapest.

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