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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#101

Post by Terr_ »

nomilk wrote: post #84

As a former user of in-trade and more recently of poly market, it is so annoying that there are laws against these sites. They serve an incredibly important function: letting people learn what’s happening in the world around us by observing a single number (e.g. % win probability). I most receently used the site yesterday to see what the incumbent Australian government’s reelection chances are after they tabled ‘ID a…

> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us

I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors.

Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#102

Post by jsyang00 »

beejiu wrote: post #97
pembrook wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I presume you also feel strongly that people should call health/life/car/homeowners insurance "gambling?" Because insurance is quite literally a prediction market. Not trying to be snarky, I know certain religions actually do consider insurance to be gambling.

No, because even though insurance companies make profit, the primary motivation of insurance is risk pooling amongst the policyholders. This is not the case for those trading binary options or similar instruments (except for "hedging" - a legitimate use case of producers buying futures, for example).

you do not think there are legitimate hedges which can be made with events trading on prediction markets?

I think, indeed, a lot of people are effectively using the markets to gamble, but the same can be said for equities/futures.

I see no reason they shouldn't be allowed, since there are proxies that people can trade as well

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#103

Post by aaron695 »

neilv wrote: post #28

> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?

[dead]

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#104

Post by beejiu »

jsyang00 wrote: post #102
beejiu wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because even though insurance companies make profit, the primary motivation of insurance is risk pooling amongst the policyholders. This is not the case for those trading binary options or similar instruments (except for "hedging" - a legitimate use case of producers buying futures, for example).

you do not think there are legitimate hedges which can be made with events trading on prediction markets? I think, indeed, a lot of people are effectively using the markets to gamble, but the same can be said for equities/futures. I see no reason they shouldn't be allowed, since there are proxies that people can trade as well

I don't see anything in Polymarket's marketing material that suggests it be used for hedging.

They describe it as "profit from your knowledge by betting on future events across various topics" on their own website.

Betfair Exchange can be used to make predictions, too. They call it "implied probability" and it's always been a feature of their product.

My concern is the use of terminology to describe a gambling product as something else entirely.

Is it a prediction market than can be used to gamble?

Or is it a gambling exchange that can be used to make predictions?

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#105

Post by threeseed »

cryptica wrote: post #99
threeseed wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The standard is (a) whether the act was illegal, (b) the company knew it was illegal and did it anyway. None of what you listed is relevant since it isn’t illegal for example to suppress speech or mislead the public.

The first amendment of the US constitutions says that it's illegal for the government to make a law which abridges people's freedom of speech. There are many cases of government entities working with social media companies to suppress speech as the Twitter Files have proved. As the government created and upholds those federal entities on the basis of laws, the government is responsible.

No the first amendment says:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#106

Post by memkit »

_zgx0 wrote: post #45
sitzkrieg wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are futures markets gambling in your eyes because speculators can participate?

Futures markets serve an important role outside of speculation, i.e. producers managing their future price risk. Betting markets do not.

Everything in finance is isomorphic to some combination of borrow-lend agreements. Betting markets and futures markets are functionally one in the same. The only difference is the oracles and the series of bets required to construct your position.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#107

Post by seizethecheese »

Terr_ wrote: post #101
nomilk wrote: post #84

As a former user of in-trade and more recently of poly market, it is so annoying that there are laws against these sites. They serve an incredibly important function: letting people learn what’s happening in the world around us by observing a single number (e.g. % win probability). I most receently used the site yesterday to see what the incumbent Australian government’s reelection chances are after they tabled ‘ID a…

> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors. Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P

These imputed opinions tend to do a better job than traditional news. On election night, polymarket was ahead of the news channels every step of the way.

Edit: to be clear, I’m referring to polymarket essentially “calling” each swing state well before the networks did. I’m not just referring to the overall outcome.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#108

Post by drexlspivey »

Terr_ wrote: post #101
nomilk wrote: post #84

As a former user of in-trade and more recently of poly market, it is so annoying that there are laws against these sites. They serve an incredibly important function: letting people learn what’s happening in the world around us by observing a single number (e.g. % win probability). I most receently used the site yesterday to see what the incumbent Australian government’s reelection chances are after they tabled ‘ID a…

> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors. Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P

If there is a better predictor than what is implied by the market then someone could make money on it. Hence the odds tend to be pretty accurate (with enough volume) because obvious edges like that tend to go to zero. A good example of that was the last election where people with access to private polls betted heavily and shifted the market one way.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#110

Post by joecool1029 »

herpderperator wrote: post #22
legitster wrote: post #4

Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble

Can someone explain to me how this is? It's a company HQ'd in New York, but it's not allowed to do business in the very country it's HQ'd in? What am I missing?

It was like this for fireworks in the past too. Used to go to Pennsylvania where it used to be illegal for PA residents to purchase them, they'd check your drivers license when you came in to validate it was from elsewhere and issue a 24hr transport permit to get it out of the state. Naturally the fireworks shops were mostly near state borders.
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