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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#91

Post by cft »

cperkins wrote: post #48

If this were aimed at Polymarket and their betting activities, then their lawyers would be getting subpoenas and the like, and a raid on their president would most likely be in concert with raids on their offices. AFAICT, it was only his person targeted. That the FBI raided the home of an individual most likely means a criminal investigation of that person, for a federal crime or a crime that crosses state boundaries…

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1856841521334816928

they are investigating Polymarket itself

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#92

Post by lesuorac »

dgfitz wrote: post #72
CodeWriter23 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incorrect. There is no requirement that even an indictment has occurred in the past.

"I hereby pardon you for murder. Nope, you didn't murder anyone, and you haven't been indited on murder charges!" Technically sure, you're correct. The worst kind of correct.

It can backfire though, you no longer have 5th amendment privileges because you can't say anything incriminating (you're pardon'd from the crime).

So you have the take the stand and testify.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#95

Post by anigbrowl »

inglor_cz wrote: post #9
bigtechennui wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One explanation is it gives Polymarket more rope to hang themselves with. Trading volume likely spiked in the lead up, and during, election night. Big numbers make for splashier headlines. Another could be concern of doing anything visibly election related prior to the election, in case the winner didn’t like the action.

While I understand that logic, I also find it a bit distasteful. Law enforcement shouldn't tolerate crimes being committed on its watch any longer than necessary. Of course, the exact meaning of "necessary" is the problem. We can probably all agree that letting a serial murderer kill more people in order to have more evidence against him would be an absolute abomination. But the situation is not that clear with white…

OK but what if that serial murderer were running for president? It would be wrong to deny the people their chance to be governed by a gleeful psychopath.

As HL Mencken once said 'Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.'

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#96

Post by next_xibalba »

Imnimo wrote: post #33

>This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election I don't even understand what the conspiracy theory is here. Why would that be something the Biden administration would seek retribution for? And even it were, how would they possibly achieve it before the new administration takes office?

Yeah, it doesn't make much sense. I think these are the (tenuous) claims:

- Many in the "crypto community" have perceive the Biden administration as hostile to it (Polymarket uses Polygon crypto).

- Peter Thiel is an investor in Polymarket. Thiel backed Trump in '16 and is often Republican aligned. Additionally, JD Vance once worked for Thiel. Thiel was a (very) major funder of Vance's senate election campaign.

- Polymarket's markets predicted Trump to win. This, to me, is the biggest stretch of all the conspiracy type stuff. But I guess it goes, "You put your thumb on the scales to show Trump was going to win. We lost. Now we're going to punish you."

My guess is that it's as straightforward as: many bettors on Polymarket are U.S. citizens. Polymarket knows this and in all likelihood facilitates this, maintaining the thinnest possible veneer of plausible deniability. While betting on U.S. elections by U.S. bettors is apparently legal [1], it still requires market makers to submit to some registration process. That requirement has not been fulfilled by Polymarket. Also, in 2022 Polymarket settled a case with the CFTC for operating an unregistered derivatives market [2]. Who knows, it might just be related to a violation of that settlement?

[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/election-bett...

[2] https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#97

Post by beejiu »

pembrook wrote: post #86
beejiu wrote: post #11

Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".

I presume you also feel strongly that people should call health/life/car/homeowners insurance "gambling?" Because insurance is quite literally a prediction market. Not trying to be snarky, I know certain religions actually do consider insurance to be gambling.

No, because even though insurance companies make profit, the primary motivation of insurance is risk pooling amongst the policyholders. This is not the case for those trading binary options or similar instruments (except for "hedging" - a legitimate use case of producers buying futures, for example).

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#98

Post by dgfitz »

lesuorac wrote: post #92
dgfitz wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I hereby pardon you for murder. Nope, you didn't murder anyone, and you haven't been indited on murder charges!" Technically sure, you're correct. The worst kind of correct.

It can backfire though, you no longer have 5th amendment privileges because you can't say anything incriminating (you're pardon'd from the crime). So you have the take the stand and testify.

Testify to what?

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#99

Post by cryptica »

threeseed wrote: post #75
cryptica wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The standard is (a) whether the act was illegal, (b) the company knew it was illegal and did it anyway. None of what you listed is relevant since it isn’t illegal for example to suppress speech or mislead the public.

The first amendment of the US constitutions says that it's illegal for the government to make a law which abridges people's freedom of speech. There are many cases of government entities working with social media companies to suppress speech as the Twitter Files have proved. As the government created and upholds those federal entities on the basis of laws, the government is responsible.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#100

Post by [deleted] »

nshkrdotcom wrote: post #90
edm0nd wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, it's not. As someone who has been both raided by the feds and been arrested. Being raided is way more traumatic and gave me PTSD. Being arrested is easy as fuck. Being raided involves fully armed people busting into your home and tearing it apart and seizing all of your electronics.

Makes sense. Would you be willing to share more about any of those situations?

[deleted]
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