81–90 of 241 posts
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Polymarket could've easily registered as an exchange at any point in the last 4+ years, and then itself filed the suit that its competitors filed. Instead they chose to just ignore the law. > VC's call it Regulatory Capture This isn't regulatory capture. You can disagree with the regulation, but the barrier to entry here is not that high. Kalshi is like 5 years old. "Capture" is a thing, and it does not just mean "an…
You're right, I had been using a definition of regulatory capture that doesn't really fit what I'm seeing when I look it up. I learned it to mean capture of market share through regulation, either by getting your competitors banned, forced creation of consumers through law (like car seats/helmets/paper straws). Maybe someone knows what that is called? Instead, it means regulatory agencies become dominated by the inte…
I don't think you are at all correct about the relationship between Polymarket and other event trading venues. For one thing, Kalshi and polymarket are basically contemporaneous. For another, Polymarket plays at these games too (Polymarket has a former Commissioner of the CFTC on their board).
To the extent that Polymarket is playing in the legal grey zone, it's an active choice on their part, not a result of competitors' regulatory advantage or Polymarket's lack of access to regulatory leverage.
Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble
Kalshi got the goahead from an appeals court to list election bets. I think Robinhood added election bets soonafter. Is there a reason that wouldn't apply to Polymarket? Granted, Polymarket was operating before that ruling. https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-rulin...
> Polymarket has blocked access to Americans since 2022, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives-trading platform. Traders say the ban on U.S. users can be circumvented using virtual private networks.
>Election betting was legalized in the U.S. under a recent federal court ruling, but only for CFTC-regulated markets, so Polymarket has remained off-limits to Americans.
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/fbi-polymarket-ceo-investiga...
I most receently used the site yesterday to see what the incumbent Australian government’s reelection chances are after they tabled ‘ID and age requirements to use social media’ laws, but polymarket didn’t seem to have Australian politics odds, so I was left using oddschecker, which is inferior due to the annoying way it displays odds and it not storing historical data.
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This is not a wild take at all. Every major corporation in the US is currently sucking up to Trump because his presidency will be entirely transactional and without regard to the constitutional purpose of the office. If you scratch his back, he will find a way to scratch yours - until it’s no longer convenient for him to do so.
Does it have anything to do with his statements about firing and enacting severe penalties, federal investigations in, and changes around the censorship requirements that many of these corporations engaged in with government agencies? He promised retraction of billions in federal funding- and many of these corporations are implicated.
Or all the people he pardon'd in exchange for indirect money.
It's literally transactional.
Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
Because insurance is quite literally a prediction market.
Not trying to be snarky, I know certain religions actually do consider insurance to be gambling.
Typically they get "debanked" without explanation, and it's really hard to run a startup without a bank account...
This podcast with a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz tells the stories: https://youtu.be/g4jWb-0nj44?si=_hK92xyF56lG0ezd&t=100
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One explanation is it gives Polymarket more rope to hang themselves with. Trading volume likely spiked in the lead up, and during, election night. Big numbers make for splashier headlines. Another could be concern of doing anything visibly election related prior to the election, in case the winner didn’t like the action.
While I understand that logic, I also find it a bit distasteful. Law enforcement shouldn't tolerate crimes being committed on its watch any longer than necessary. Of course, the exact meaning of "necessary" is the problem. We can probably all agree that letting a serial murderer kill more people in order to have more evidence against him would be an absolute abomination. But the situation is not that clear with white…
That is simply not how it works and for good reason. If it were, imagine the consequences. Most charges would never lead to a trial or a conviction because law enforcement would have acted on the very first sign of criminal action instead of investigating further or working their way up the chain. We'd only end up arresting low level foot soldiers and the higher ups would get away every single time.
> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?
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A 6am raid from the feds is better than getting arrested. It is.
Actually, it's not. As someone who has been both raided by the feds and been arrested. Being raided is way more traumatic and gave me PTSD. Being arrested is easy as fuck. Being raided involves fully armed people busting into your home and tearing it apart and seizing all of your electronics.
Would you be willing to share more about any of those situations?