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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#41
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corporations have been making these kinds of statements for almost the past decade.

Have corporations ever not played the "aggrieved victim" card?

The social/political appeal part is the new part. Companies have always released "we did nothing wrong" statements.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#42

I think the key factor here is that the website allowed Americans to bet on the political market. Which I still don't quite understand, the FBI waiting until after the election for this. Why didn't they go after them sooner? Feels wrong.

Robinhood launched a new feature where we could bet on the presidential candidate. I've heard of a couple others too, so I think that laws were created and funded by competitors, and they defined what was legal in a way that excluded polymarket. I think in this case, polymarket allows betting on anything, competitors got betting on the election legalized ( https://www.barrons.com/news/last-minute-legal-ruling-allows.…

Polymarket could've easily registered as an exchange at any point in the last 4+ years, and then itself filed the suit that its competitors filed. Instead they chose to just ignore the law.

> VC's call it Regulatory Capture

This isn't regulatory capture. You can disagree with the regulation, but the barrier to entry here is not that high. Kalshi is like 5 years old.

"Capture" is a thing, and it does not just mean "any regulation that I happen to disagree with".

You do need capital to stand up a regulated exchange, but, then, you also need capital to stand up an unregulated exchange. And the difference between those two numbers is not nearly big enough to come anywhere close to creating capture.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#43

Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble

Kalshi got the goahead from an appeals court to list election bets. I think Robinhood added election bets soonafter. Is there a reason that wouldn't apply to Polymarket? Granted, Polymarket was operating before that ruling.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-rulin...

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#44
post #33

>This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election I don't even understand what the conspiracy theory is here. Why would that be something the Biden administration would seek retribution for? And even it were, how would they possibly achieve it before the new administration takes office?

I'm also confused, but I'd imagine that if Trump lost the election and betting sentiment on polymarket predicted strongly that Trump would win, it could be used as further "proof" that fraud occurred and that the democrats stole the election.

Polymarket probably thinks that the Biden administration is angry with them for showing how the population truly feels as all other sources are obviously corrupt /s

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#45
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it is not derogatory or euphemistic, it is descriptive. Polymarket is gambling by any definition. Gambling is known and proven to have great harms and risks to society. (And I got the term "gambling exchange" from the UK where Betfair Exhange basically does what Polymarket do since 2000, without the Crypto glamour.)

are futures markets gambling in your eyes because speculators can participate?

Futures markets serve an important role outside of speculation, i.e. producers managing their future price risk. Betting markets do not.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#46

Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble

The CEO or the company can only be in trouble if they are found guilty in court. That's not going to happen in the next two months, and Trump probably couldn't care less about this.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#47

Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble

Kalshi got the goahead from an appeals court to list election bets. I think Robinhood added election bets soonafter. Is there a reason that wouldn't apply to Polymarket? Granted, Polymarket was operating before that ruling. https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-rulin...

What rake did I just step on? I'm getting downvoted for this.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#48
If this were aimed at Polymarket and their betting activities, then their lawyers would be getting subpoenas and the like, and a raid on their president would most likely be in concert with raids on their offices. AFAICT, it was only his person targeted.

That the FBI raided the home of an individual most likely means a criminal investigation of that person, for a federal crime or a crime that crosses state boundaries.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#49
post #33

>This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election I don't even understand what the conspiracy theory is here. Why would that be something the Biden administration would seek retribution for? And even it were, how would they possibly achieve it before the new administration takes office?

Polymarket is crypto adjacent, and the current administration has been going against the whole crypto ecosystem. I don't think it's just about predicting that Trump would win.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/print/operation-choke-point-2-0-...

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#50
post #33

>This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election I don't even understand what the conspiracy theory is here. Why would that be something the Biden administration would seek retribution for? And even it were, how would they possibly achieve it before the new administration takes office?

The conspiracy theory is that Polymarket was rigged by nefarious forces to promote Donald Trump. It was widely promulgated in the mainstream press* leading up to the election. If you view Polymarket as an illegitimate tool used to help put a dictator in the White House, not surprising the the party being being replaced would attack it.

* E.g. the New Yorker, "Polymarket has seen a recent surge in pro-Trump election bets. Is it the movement of a rational market or a concerted campaign?" or Newsweek, "Polymarket Prediction Platform Possibly Manipulated to Favor Trump"

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