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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#22Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble
Can someone explain to me how this is? It's a company HQ'd in New York, but it's not allowed to do business in the very country it's HQ'd in? What am I missing?
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#23Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
I am not familiar with the term 'gambling exchange', where'd you get it? Many 'sportsbooks' are referred to as 'betting exchanges', but that has become something of a term of art, much like the term 'prediction market'. In any case, attempting to use a derogatory or denigrating euphemism to refer to something is usually less productive than simply exposing (what you perceive to be) its faults. What specific issues do…
IIRC There is only one prediction market with a single regulatory exemption granted for the University of Iowa and the bets are limited to $500.
The rest of what we see are (binary) event contracts (options)
Based on my understanding, which may be incorrect, they seem to be basically a rebranding of binary options which were illegal in the US for the longest time. With a clever renaming trick things now work :)
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#24Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
since I like gambling on stock exchanges and table games I prefer the more nuanced term for the specific game I'm playing.
its more wasteful for some segment of our society to need a distinction between investing or gambling at all, the people they're competing against don't care, don't have any cultural limitation, religious limitation, or peer group that needs this distinction. and your "legitimizes" wording looks based on needing a distinction.
even with the "positive or negative expected value" metrics to distinguish some financial games, I've traded options contracts with a lower expected value than a table game at a casino. so just don't worry about the distinction and use our words for the specific game we're playing. prediction markets are prediction markets.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
But it is not derogatory or euphemistic, it is descriptive. Polymarket is gambling by any definition. Gambling is known and proven to have great harms and risks to society. (And I got the term "gambling exchange" from the UK where Betfair Exhange basically does what Polymarket do since 2000, without the Crypto glamour.)
are futures markets gambling in your eyes because speculators can participate?
Yes.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#26[flagged]
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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#27Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble
Can someone explain to me how this is? It's a company HQ'd in New York, but it's not allowed to do business in the very country it's HQ'd in? What am I missing?
As I understand it (very much not a lawyer), the company complies with US laws by not allowing people in the US to use it, so there’s no issue doing business.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#28> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios.
When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking.
Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#29Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#30> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?
Respectable is subjective. Advisable? If they're probably guilty then appealing to the biases of the incoming administration is probably a good idea. On the other hand, if they're innocent and their accusation of bias is accurate, then saying as much is probably a good idea too.