It seems like a large part of the ruling hinges on the fact that Google matched the image hash to a hash of a known child pornography image, but didn't require an employee to actually look at that image before reporting it to the police. If they had visually confirmed it was the image they suspected it was based on the hash then no warrant would have been required, but the judge reads that the image hash match is not…
If it was a cryptographic hash (apparently not), this mathematical near-certainty is necessary but not sufficient. Like cryptography used for confidentiality or integrity, the math doesn't at all guarantee the outcome; the implementation is the most important factor.
Each entry in the illegal hash database, for example, relies on some person characterizing the original image as illegal - there is no mathematical formula for defining illegal images - and that characterization could be inaccurate. It also relies on the database's integrity, the user's application and its implementation, even the hash calculator. People on HN can imagine lots of things that could go wrong.
If I were a judge, I'd just want to know if someone witnessed CP or not. It might be unpleasant but we're talking about arresting someone for CP, which even sans conviction can be highly traumatic (including time in jail, waiting for bail or trial, as a ~child molestor) and destroy people's lives and reputations. Do you fancy appearing at a bail hearing about your CP charge, even if you are innocent? 'Kids, I have something to tell you ...'; 'Boss, I can't work for a couple weeks because ...'.