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Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

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Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#231

Post by godelski »

philistine wrote: post #179
godelski wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, it feels like faking demos is the status quo in tech right now. I can perfectly understand "illustrative" demos where you're clear that this is what you're imagining, but if you say this is how it works -- or heavily imply or demonstrate under very limited conditions while implying this is what you can expect -- it is no wonder so many people have low sentiment around tech. But do we really have to do it th…

Look at the first reveal of Cybertruck versus what shipped. Those vans are going to look like crap.

Yeah with Elon (and anything "AI" (note: I'm an ML researcher)) it's now "I'm believe it when I see it" because there's too much over promise and under delivery.

Honestly, I'm not even super pissed at the start-ups that do this because it's "ride or die" for them. But I'm more pissed at big players doing this and experts in fields who push the over hype. Who retweet demos that are obvious fakes. It creates a lot of distrust because there's no clear "trusted authority". Sure, authority shouldn't be the only reason to trust but we can't be experts in everything (there's always trustworthy experts but good luck average person with no domain knowledge differentiating them). The system doesn't work without trust. I just hope this is recognized before it gets catastrophic. Because it is a global phenomena

Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#232

Post by nomel »

resters wrote: post #227
nomel wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yet Tesla still needs 100% tariffs on BYD vehicles to compete?! Why does Canada also have 100% tariff? Why do you think the tariffs are only for Tesla? Again, all US car companies have a fairly ludicrous government mandate [1] for EV production: > In April, the EPA finalized its “Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles for MY 2027 and Later” rule that could effectively call for 4…

So China is both using slave labor and also paying close to wage parity with the US? How can both of those assertions be true? I think the lithium/cobalt argument is a bit of a straw man, since the generally accepted view is that the US likely has an abundance of such deposits but simply has not opted to do significant extraction. Also, from the standpoint of the security risk associated with China controlling the su…

> So China is both using slave labor and also paying close to wage parity with the US? How can both of those assertions be true?

Very trivial actually. The ones approaching wage parity are tech workers in big cities (what I deal with). The ones working as slaves are literally digging holes, sometimes in other countries. The battery supply chain contains both. The part that makes it easy for China to make cheaper batteries is the digging holes and fucking the environment part of it.

> the US coudl also opt for strategic reserves of key items at a much lower cost than the cost of tariffs on the economy.

They could, but they would, again, have to ignore environmental and labor concerns, which would require first changing federal laws that ban imported goods that used forced labor (see previous links).

> An easy way to help EV companies would be to stop spending trillions of dollars on petrolium-related wars.

Unfortunately, 93.2% of the 283 million cars on the road are ICE. This "easy" way involves a short term severe disruption, especially of the lower levels of the economy. But, I agree completely that subsidizing EV companies (including Tesla) and strategic foreign investments in REE is probably a better long term bet than building nice bombs.

I think the realistic result of all of this is that the economic pressures force the next gen of batteries to not use lithium or cobalt, or anything that China has 80% control of.

Cheers!

Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#233

Post by resters »

nomel wrote: post #232
resters wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So China is both using slave labor and also paying close to wage parity with the US? How can both of those assertions be true? I think the lithium/cobalt argument is a bit of a straw man, since the generally accepted view is that the US likely has an abundance of such deposits but simply has not opted to do significant extraction. Also, from the standpoint of the security risk associated with China controlling the su…

> So China is both using slave labor and also paying close to wage parity with the US? How can both of those assertions be true? Very trivial actually. The ones approaching wage parity are tech workers in big cities (what I deal with). The ones working as slaves are literally digging holes, sometimes in other countries. The battery supply chain contains both. The part that makes it easy for China to make cheaper batt…

Interesting points. I appreciate the discussion a great deal.

I really want to believe that the US is doing state of the art engineering and manufacturing in the EV space. You've given me some good things to think about.

Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#234

Post by buzzert »

slimebot80 wrote: post #33

It's all about controlling money that might go to more honest ventures. Yes, humanity has engineers who are going to the moon, creating robots, investigating brain interfaces, improving public transport with buses and tunnels. And there will always be monorail salesmen who try to soak up those investments, taking away from others.

> improving public transport with buses and tunnels

Who is working on this?

Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#235

Post by jojobas »

tim333 wrote: post #200
jojobas wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't be serious. Musk is under investigation for manipulating stock prices back years ago. Anything shown on these events must be assumed fake until proven otherwise.

For 420 joking around on Twitter.

If anything, that's an aggravating circumstance, not an excuse.

Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#236

Post by Animats »

tim333 wrote: post #198
beezlewax wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did you hear that?

While I didn't hear anything, I think the walk control would have to be local circuitry. I can't see how a remote operator could sense balance and do all the leg movements. You can see a Tesla upper body controller here. Not sure if it's what they used for the event, but probably something like that. https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1845047695284613344

I suspect that the upper body is teleoperated, while the locomotion system is self-balancing and driven around with a joystick.

Reaction of the stock market to Tesla's "demo" was very negative. TSLA stock dropped about 10% immediately after the demo and has been flat since.[1]

[1] https://www.bing.com/search?&q=TSLA+stock

Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#237

Post by mike_hearn »

consteval wrote: post #222
mike_hearn wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've also read the biography. It's clear that he's stable and trustworthy enough to run multiple large companies, assemble a loyal force of allies who follow him around to his different ventures, a force that includes multiple family members, and win long term government contracts. The conclusion Isaacson himself reached is that Musk has an extraordinary need for intensity and challenge, to the extent that he becomes…

Au Contraire, don't mistake drive and ambition for being a good person. It's not uncommon for highly successful people to be awful. Typically, you need to be bone headed, rude, highly opinionated. Often you need to lie and steal. Just because Musk has financial success does not mean he isn't awful. In fact, financial success is probably one of the worst indicators of being a person of high integrity.

I didn't mention "being a good person" anywhere, that's not the question at hand largely because I don't think it's a usefully complex way to think about people.

Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#238

Post by jvanderbot »

robotresearcher wrote: post #184
jjk166 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Battery density is only an issue if these things are spending most of their time moving long distances. If you are targeting a drop in replacement for a human worker who is spending most of their time at a workstation, it can be plugged in while working. Even in a scenario where the robot can not be connected to power while working, that's easily solved with redundancy - get two robots, one works while the other char…

> easily solved with redundancy - get two robots. Yay, twice as expensive. And power tethers on robots suck so hard. Try it sometime, you’ll hate it.

A problem that can be solved by spending 2x is not the type of fundamental problem I'm referring to (easily solved by "Funding" or otherwise known as a system design constraint and part of everyday engineering albeit very difficult and skillful engineering)

The leaps that would be required to make a mannequin with motors intelligently interact with crowds (in groups no less) at a publicity event cannot be solved with 2x funding jumps, and I'm arguing they are largely perception-, sensing-, mapping- and self-modelling- based.

Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#239

Post by ActionHank »

airstrike wrote: post #229
ActionHank wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“The safety people” are gone. OpenAI is just very comfortable lying right around the time google is doing a big public announcement. Where is Sora? Everyone and their dog has video gen out now, Sora is conspicuously absent.

To be clear, OpenAI is not a public company and is not beholden to the same sort of disclosure rules as Tesla

To be clear, my point was that they are better at theatrics than delivering a product.

Re: Tesla Optimus Bots Were Remotely Operated at Cybercab Event

#240

Post by consteval »

mike_hearn wrote: post #237
consteval wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Au Contraire, don't mistake drive and ambition for being a good person. It's not uncommon for highly successful people to be awful. Typically, you need to be bone headed, rude, highly opinionated. Often you need to lie and steal. Just because Musk has financial success does not mean he isn't awful. In fact, financial success is probably one of the worst indicators of being a person of high integrity.

I didn't mention "being a good person" anywhere, that's not the question at hand largely because I don't think it's a usefully complex way to think about people.

Ok, replace that word with stable and trustworthy, which you did say. I get very frustrated with people who play pedantic games. I know you understand what I'm saying. You're not being clever by doing this. All you're showing is that you don't have an argument or any useful thoughts to add, but you love the sound of your own voice, so you'll butt in with pedantic bullshit. It doesn't make you look smart; it makes you look pathetic and conceited.
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