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Tesla Robotaxi

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#751

Post by awiesenhofer »

grecy wrote: post #606
modeless wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that Tesla's biggest mistake was doing Cybertruck before the $25k car. But if they solve autonomy and/or succeed with Optimus then everything else becomes irrelevant.

> I agree that Tesla's biggest mistake was doing Cybertruck before the $25k car. While a $25k EV seems to be what we all want and is almost guaranteed to be a massive hit, there is no evidence such a thing can be done yet without losing money on every sale. Why isn’t any other car company doing it? Rivian are losing money on every car sold at 4 times the price.

> there is no evidence such a thing can be done yet without losing money on every sale.

> Why isn’t any other car company doing it?

You mean except all the chinese companys doing it right now?

Or all the european carmakers releasing theirs as we speak?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#752

Post by awiesenhofer »

panick21_ wrote: post #516
nikcub wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I want a pragmatic operational industry expert CEO[0] for Tesla, in the same way Shotwell is for SpaceX. Announce and do the far stuff, but at the same time ship the near things that people want. A pragmatic auto CEO would have had that $25k car moving already. A pragmatic industry CEO also wouldn't have such a large event without a call-to-action. If they had a "reserve now for Feb 2025 delivery" button…

People really have gone off the deep end with Shotwell, yes she is awesome. But you know what makes it a huge amount easier to be awesome, having a reusable rocket to sell in the first place. Musk makes the primary choices at SpaceX, he decides the company strategy, he decides where the money goes, he decides what future projects to take on. If its so clear what a 'pragmatic auto CEO' would do, why do other car compa…

> why do other car companies not have those cheap cars?

They do! The chinese for a while (hence tariffs), the europeans are releasing theirs right now.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#753

Post by anonzzzies »

fiddlerwoaroof wrote: post #739
anonzzzies wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it worked, why postpone all of this? Again? It works 'well enough' when there is a human on board, without one, it's just not safe enough yet.

Aside from supply issues due tot he pandemic and demand, I there’s a strong incentive to be conservative in how you roll out self-driving: Cruise and Uber both ran into serious issues because they rolled out self-driving cars too aggressively. It won’t take that many publicized incidents to cause significant financial, legal and reputational issues for Tesla. So, selling FSD as a level 2 system while they are trainin…

Sure, but saying every earnings call 'it will definitely fully work this year' and then not delivering every year is rather. wrong. He knows it won't work this year, or next. It needs more training and testing as you say; needs either that or a significant AI breakthrough.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#754

Post by grecy »

awiesenhofer wrote: post #751
grecy wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I agree that Tesla's biggest mistake was doing Cybertruck before the $25k car. While a $25k EV seems to be what we all want and is almost guaranteed to be a massive hit, there is no evidence such a thing can be done yet without losing money on every sale. Why isn’t any other car company doing it? Rivian are losing money on every car sold at 4 times the price.

> there is no evidence such a thing can be done yet without losing money on every sale. > Why isn’t any other car company doing it? You mean except all the chinese companys doing it right now? Or all the european carmakers releasing theirs as we speak?

> You mean except all the chinese companys doing it right now?

Do those meet US vehicle regulations? How can I buy one for $25k

> Or all the european carmakers releasing theirs as we speak

I have not seen mention of those, can you share links please?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#755

Post by oarfish »

aaronblohowiak wrote: post #368
fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that Tesla would win the robotaxi race by not needing LiDAR died sometime between when LiDAR cost $100k and when it cost $1k. Now it’s just Elon being intransigent.

can I get a lidar for 1k like the cars use?

If you buy en masse maybe. We buy such devices on or few at a time for industrial use cases, and those will cost you 10k€ for the big ones, and maybe less for the smaller ones. lots of development happening in the space tho.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#756

Post by rifty »

globular-toast wrote: post #334
tdb7893 wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, why wouldn't I want my own robotaxi if it's cheap enough? Unless taking taxiw is much cheaper it seems much better to own one, especially for electric cars which have less maintenance requirements. A lot of people I know like their cars and don't want to take taxis everywhere. Maybe I'm missing how it wouldn't be appealing to regular people.

I mean if the cost is the same then yeah you might as well own it, but that seems unlikely, unless you're in the car for most of the day. Owning means you'll need your own insurance and do your own maintenance (yes, EVs require this). What's the actual advantage to owning the car? So you can leave your stuff in it? Not owning it will force you to take your stuff out, which you should be doing anyway!

> if the cost is the same then yeah you might as well own it

The cost per mile will be the same for whomever owns the vehicles, thus i think many will likely be in the position where they would pay at minimum equal, and likely more by adding in a middleman. For a parallel look into the critical point of usage when renting a vehicle is cheaper per year than owning one today.

> What's the actual advantage to owning the car?

Minimal latency to go. No dependancy on availability of vehicles so you can be fully in control to meet your commitments.

The primary place this is an issue is competition at rush hours or holidays, where a large percentage of the population are all in commute simultaneously all delocalized from each other. An operator would need nearly 1 specific car for each of all of them in order to guarantee each could make their commitment… so, if cost is similar, and one vehicle needs to be guaranteed for you anyways, the questions becomes why wouldn’t people ensure that themselves by owning it?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#757

Post by narrator »

jajko wrote: post #419
narrator wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading any HN thread connected to Musk is so annoying because all the political obsessives come out and crapflood the thread with rants about "manbabies."

Well its true. We can use other terms but they describe underlying fact of a brilliant but deeply troubled person with serious mental issues and sometimes infantile emotional reactions. Plus a horrible parent. The times when such successful persons were unanimously celebrated and their flaws were ignored are luckily over for good. Call it what you like, this is reality that very few are happy about. Imagine if this g…

Imagine if every time someone brought up something about Linux the thread was full of people doing psychoanalysis of Linus Torvalds instead of actually talking about the features of the new release. Imagine how useless those threads would be. Your post is an example of this with regards to Tesla.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#758

Post by lowkey »

fragmede wrote: post #559
horns4lyfe wrote: post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You honestly believe that DARPA would have given us the Tesla model Y?

It's possible that Tesla, which Musk didn't found, would have given us an EV by another name. Rivan also got us an electric truck before the cybertruck came out. Fisker's not doing so well though.

Possible sure - just as it is possible my next startup could be the next Tesla. In reality, when Elon joined Tesla they had nothing but early concept prototypes of a high-end sports car with the name Roadster. Elon took it from concept, to launch, to production. Then he did the same with the Model S/X/3, sold 5 million electric vehicles, made them so compelling that it completely disrupted the ICE vehicle market and sparked a gold rush of elecrification in the car industry resulting in a Trillion-dollar company.

It's possible "which Musk didn't found" is doing some heavy lifting in your statement above.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#759

Post by meow_catrix »

trhway wrote: post #365
meow_catrix wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Planes do ”flap their wings”, just not the ones protruding from the fuselage.

I think you're mistaking rotating for flapping. Rotation is one of those fundamental things differentiating our technological civilization from Nature.

Those rotating things still produce their thrust by pushing a wing-shaped structure through air, producing a high-pressure zone on one side, and a low-pressure zone on another. That is what I was getting at. It is the same principle.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#760

Post by meow_catrix »

andsoitis wrote: post #574
trhway wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're mistaking rotating for flapping. Rotation is one of those fundamental things differentiating our technological civilization from Nature.

> Rotation is one of those fundamental things differentiating our technological civilization from Nature. Rotation is very common in nature. Planetary rotation, inner-core rotation, spinning galaxies, dung beetle rolling, Keratinocyte migration, Rotifers, spirals, rotational symmetry, etc. What isn’t common (but not non-existent) is using rotation for locomotion in biology.

Many plants and trees spread rotating ”helicopter seeds”. Many vines roto-grow themselves around vertical supports. Day flowers rotate to follow the sun.

Apples and oranges fall on the ground and can roll far and wide. Walnuts too.

Partial rotation is still rotation, of course: see animal joints in walk, trot and gallop.

And then there’s the belly-up pig drunk on brewery grain rolling down the hill. That mash packs a wallop!

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