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Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

goldmansachs.com

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Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#31
post #17
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the amount of issues I hear about with chargers not working, and everything relying on using some app? I'm not installing a smartphone app to charge a battery! So far I'm not feeling too tempted about electric vehicles. I'll be happy to find something that avoids these shortcomings though!

It's not a technology issue, it's a service issue. If ICE cars were invented today, you'd need an app at a gas station too.

No doubt. I hope there's more pushback against that crap.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#32
post #12
post #3

We need >2000 km ranges in one charge of electric vehicles for widespread adoption.

People really need to get away from that notion electric vehicles need to be as similar as possible to ICE vehicles. Most people living in cities don’t ever require that range, because 99% of their rides will be constrained to less than 50 kilometers. And even on the countryside, few people need to drive such long stretches on a single charge. Keeping up this stoic desire to not having to change your habits around dr…

If you want people to choose one thing, then you want it to be better than or at least as good as the alternatives. The idea that EVs need to be comparable to ICE vehicles isn’t just some silly argument, it’s literally the choice that consumers are faced with if they want to buy a car. Even if longer range travel is only 1% of what consumers will do with their car (which I’m sure is a number you just made up), why would you get a product that only meets 99% of your needs, when you can get the competing product that meets 100% of them?

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#33
post #28
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the amount of issues I hear about with chargers not working, and everything relying on using some app? I'm not installing a smartphone app to charge a battery! So far I'm not feeling too tempted about electric vehicles. I'll be happy to find something that avoids these shortcomings though!

EU regulations require charging stations to accept card payments by 2027.

Nice, that's really good to hear! Hopefully other jurisdictions follow the lead there!

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#34
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People use their car way less than they think. The median work distance in France is 12km in the countryside and 6km in the cities. 25% of the workers travel less than 4km even in the countryside. Source: https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/7622203 The current range is way above most needs already and I'm not sure cars (electric or not) is even the answer with such a low usage.

If people bought cars for their median usage, they'd buy cars with like 1.2 seats and that top out at 70 km/h.

That would not be a bad option to get smaller compared to the small tanks that people are driving right now.

Cars are one of the most inefficient form of transport anyways and driving almost never makes sense on large distances.

Instead of a large flow of people driving 600km to go to the same place with a single seat used each only once per year, what you would want is public transport instead on those routes, that would be more rational.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#35
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wouldn't mind if my vehicle could only travel 300km... if I could have the confidence I'd be able to stop and top it up in just a couple of minutes no matter where I was. This is called a motorcycle! Mine can do 260-280km on a gas tank, still does huge trips. Once batteries work like gas, you're absolutely right.

> Mine can do 260-280km on a gas tank, still does huge trips. How is this a motorcycle specific feature?

Cars are not built with such tiny tanks

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#36
post #3

We need >2000 km ranges in one charge of electric vehicles for widespread adoption.

As an owner of an EV it took me the first 6 months to adapt. The concept is different and you need to adapt your mentality to it. When you use an ICE car you fill up once it goes under 20% When you drive an EV you leave home and it's always full and costs nothing (PV takes care of that). Most places I visit have chargers which means you charge while you do what you have to do be it restaurant, shopping mall, supermar…

How does that work when all cars are electric? Fighting with some guy at the grocery store for a charging port? I'm not trying to be inflammatory asking that, I genuinely wonder what the approach is supposed to be if suddenly everyone went and bought an electric car. I always hear that "you can charge all over the place" but I'll see like, two charging stalls in a giant parking lot. I wonder what the future looks like in that regard in, say, 5-10 years.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#37
post #16

We would need a standardized, replaceable battery pack that takes us 300-500 km. That would eliminate the risk of expensive battery service and make recharging instant at service station.

Hmm what should we call it? Not AAA- maybe DDD?

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#38
post #7
post #3

We need >2000 km ranges in one charge of electric vehicles for widespread adoption.

Not everywhere is massive and spread out like US. In Ireland I can basically get anywhere in the whole country with one charge and maybe a top-up along the way. I'm more than happy with my 400km range.

I'm also in Ireland and while 400km might get you anywhere in the country, it won't get you home. Fast charging here is more expensive than petrol (over twice as much per km in many cases), the charging infrastructure is not reliable, and it's very easily overwhelmed.

After the All Ireland semi-final this year, there were multi-hour queues for fast chargers on the M7. Multi-minute queues for petrol.

This is reflected in sales, where even with tax and BIK incentives, EV sales are falling sharply and second-hand EVs are being exported because the market has tanked.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#39
post #16

We would need a standardized, replaceable battery pack that takes us 300-500 km. That would eliminate the risk of expensive battery service and make recharging instant at service station.

It’s a solution for a problem that won’t exist.

Charing for 30 minutes isn’t a real issue after a long drive.

Replacing individual battery modules will become cheap enough it will extend the life of battery packs enough.

And once the whole battery needs replacing it will be ok financially.

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