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Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

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Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#21

Post by Hamuko »

realusername wrote: post #20
beAbU wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not everywhere is massive and spread out like US. In Ireland I can basically get anywhere in the whole country with one charge and maybe a top-up along the way. I'm more than happy with my 400km range.

People use their car way less than they think. The median work distance in France is 12km in the countryside and 6km in the cities. 25% of the workers travel less than 4km even in the countryside. Source: https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/7622203 The current range is way above most needs already and I'm not sure cars (electric or not) is even the answer with such a low usage.

If people bought cars for their median usage, they'd buy cars with like 1.2 seats and that top out at 70 km/h.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#22

Post by kristopolous »

I've been calling this shot for years. The cost optimization runway for EVs is much longer than for gas cars.

Their adoption will eventually be a pure numbers game as new electric becomes cost competitive with used gas. That's how the pragmatic adoption will happen.

You don't need, for instance, catalytic converters or a bunch of other expensive, low tolerance parts and since the fuel storage is electricity, new chemistries are way more feasible. Everything points to a car price crash in the next decade or so. There's already sub-$5k models in China.

This will drop even lower when things like inductive road charging or other ways of passive refueling while in use (such as solar). Then you can tear even more out.

Imagine office parking lots where inductive charges were put in every parking spot as they laid the concrete being an expected, normal thing. No cables, no plugging.

Most people buy used cars today. In the future (10-20 years), most people will have these: frequently passive charging cheap vehicles using non expensive commodity parts.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#23

Post by speedgoose »

hackernewds wrote: post #8
sho wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think James May made a great point when he said it's not about range, it's about quick and ubiquitous charging. I wouldn't mind if my vehicle could only travel 300km... if I could have the confidence I'd be able to stop and top it up in just a couple of minutes no matter where I was. Faster charging would really make all the difference.

Not really. if your choice is a better ICE car at the same price point, why get an EV that has to stop intermittently and has failure modes like broken chargers. It has to be as good. And better

Thankfully they are often better. 95% of new car sales are EVs in my area.

It took a few years to get there, people don't necessarily know immediately what they like best.

https://elbilstatistikk.no/

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#24

Post by closewith »

sho wrote: post #5
diminish wrote: post #3

We need >2000 km ranges in one charge of electric vehicles for widespread adoption.

I think James May made a great point when he said it's not about range, it's about quick and ubiquitous charging. I wouldn't mind if my vehicle could only travel 300km... if I could have the confidence I'd be able to stop and top it up in just a couple of minutes no matter where I was. Faster charging would really make all the difference.

The problem with fast charging, at least here in Ireland, is that it's significantly more expensive than petrol. Our family moved back from an EV to PHEV because we get the benefit of 90+% of our journeys being for free (from solar charging at home), but that last 10% is petrol that is always available.

There's also nothing more miserable than being stuck in a queue for a fast charger with a colicy baby. I've offered people cash to get to the front of the queue, although no-one's ever accepted money when they understand why.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#26

Post by speedgoose »

mulperi wrote: post #16

We would need a standardized, replaceable battery pack that takes us 300-500 km. That would eliminate the risk of expensive battery service and make recharging instant at service station.

Battery swapping stations looks a lot more expensive and failure prone compared to fast chargers.

I think 250kW flat charging curves are almost as convenient. Go to pee and scroll HN for one minute and voilà.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#28

Post by Hamuko »

amatecha wrote: post #9
hackernewds wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. if your choice is a better ICE car at the same price point, why get an EV that has to stop intermittently and has failure modes like broken chargers. It has to be as good. And better

Yeah, the amount of issues I hear about with chargers not working, and everything relying on using some app? I'm not installing a smartphone app to charge a battery! So far I'm not feeling too tempted about electric vehicles. I'll be happy to find something that avoids these shortcomings though!

EU regulations require charging stations to accept card payments by 2027.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#30

Post by kyriakos »

diminish wrote: post #3

We need >2000 km ranges in one charge of electric vehicles for widespread adoption.

As an owner of an EV it took me the first 6 months to adapt. The concept is different and you need to adapt your mentality to it. When you use an ICE car you fill up once it goes under 20% When you drive an EV you leave home and it's always full and costs nothing (PV takes care of that). Most places I visit have chargers which means you charge while you do what you have to do be it restaurant, shopping mall, supermarket etc. Things only happen differently if you plan long journey and living on an island that's no issue.
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