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How long til we're all on Ozempic?

asteriskmag.com

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Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#101
post #42

This article seems to frame things in such a strange way. Maybe instead of trying to get everyone obesity medication, we can instead educate society so we all understand nutrition and diet and can combat the ever-persistent forces of corporations pushing unhealthy food on us?

Yes, because what obese people lack is education.

From my subjective experience in life, what they very often lacked was parents who set the right examples around food. I know that doesn't apply to everyone of course, but I've witnessed it time and time again - an upbringing with deeply disordered routines/practices around food. It's universal among obese people in my life. I speculate that better awareness of diet/nutrition might help to prevent passing on such behaviours, like not feeding the family exclusively a bucket of KFC or McDonalds, or using food as a reward, etc. etc.. I mean, medication won't actually solve what is caused by behaviour, right? Maybe the behaviour can be reduced on a broader scale, over time, via people making better-informed decisions? If parents know their habits around food are basically ensuring their kids will struggle with obesity, maybe they'll make the effort to do something different? Dunno, it seems like a reasonable consideration.

Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#102
post #15
post #4

It's a pretty sad thought that everybody will be on a drug that keeps weight in check while most people will still eat a basically toxic diet. Weight is certainly an important factor but there is more to a healthy life.

Seems like just an orthogonal problem? If calorie input is solved, now all the moralizing and shaming can be about nutrition instead

And make no mistake we will find something new to moralize and shame about because that’s what we do

Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has there ever been a case where something like #2 has happened? Don't think you need to worry about that one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_fluoridation

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/04/fluoridation...

Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#104
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> big improvements for animal welfare Is it? It might reduce the amount of animals killed, sure, but it won't improve the well-being of the ones that are still raised.

This gets into a deep philosophical question people spend too much time arguing about. In short, some would argue suffering is multiplied by the number of sentient beings that experience it, others would argue only the average "amount" of suffering matters. You can end with some absurd paradoxes if you take either to their extremes. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

I'm curious about the paradoxes, if you have any on hand

Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#105

I'd think it more likely that it'll be one of the next generation drugs, but I do agree with the premise that it will be really common. A few weeks ago I started a low dose of tirzepatide (aka Mounjaro, aka Zepbound) and the side effects are interesting. The biggest negative, which just takes adjustment, is drastically lower stomach capacity. Used to be that two eggs and two pieces of toast was breakfast. Now I bette…

> "Just eat less and exercise more" is trite. If it were that easy, we'd all be in fantastic shape.

Studies show it just doesn't work.

There was a massive (18,000,000 people) cohort analysis published in 2023 that showed the likelihood of someone losing 5% of their body weight in any given year was 1 in 11 and the likelihood of going from severely obese to normal weight is 1 in 1667.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10407685/

[edit] not to mention for those 1 in 11, the average weight regain over 5 years is 80%.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000291652...

Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#106
post #13

There's some evidence that Ozempic improves general impulse control, e.g decreasing alcohol consumption [0], which the article mentions. Also, as Tyler Cowen writes [1], this is probably going to translate into big improvements for animal welfare: > People lose weight on these drugs because they eat less, and eating less usually means eating less meat. And less meat consumption results in less factory farming. This s…

Naltrexone will do the same thing. For alcohol, opioid, or binge eating control. Improve T3 and helps with blood sugar, and its orally bioavailable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naltrexone#Controversies

Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#107
post #85

I'd think it more likely that it'll be one of the next generation drugs, but I do agree with the premise that it will be really common. A few weeks ago I started a low dose of tirzepatide (aka Mounjaro, aka Zepbound) and the side effects are interesting. The biggest negative, which just takes adjustment, is drastically lower stomach capacity. Used to be that two eggs and two pieces of toast was breakfast. Now I bette…

It would be interesting to compare the anxiolytic effects of the drug versus the cancer anxiety caused by being on the drug. The cancer anxiety could be reduced by frequent testing. e.g., having a thyroid ultrasound every 6 months, or a yearly abdominal MRI, just to make sure cancer is not brewing.

There's no evidence that GLP-1s cause cancer in any meaningful amount, but obesity definitely does. Either way the only cancer they found any correlation to was thyroid which is one of the most treatable -- over 99% survival rates.

Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#108
One thing that it seems we are just starting to talk about with these drugs is the associated muscle and bone density loss. I'm concerned that this generation of GLP-1 early adopters will wind up more frail and suffer a lower quality of life in old age as a result.

Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#109

I don’t want this to come out insensitive or from under the rock, but why is taking a drug a novel & cool idea (all of a sudden/recently) as opposed to good old fashioned working out and not eating more than what you need? okay, this drug is all kinds of great and it’s the next best thing since green grapes, still not eating more and workout is better than taking drugs that effect your brain right? Are doctors requir…

Why doesn't everyone play piano? Why isn't every person a super athlete? Why doesn't everyone meditate 40 minutes a day? Why doesn't everyone study super hard in school and become an engineer or doctor or lawyer?

The hard truth: Not everyone is capable of those things. Period.

40% of the US population is considered obese. That is a HUGE number. At a certain point, you can no longer blame individuals. There is something wrong, and we identify it as an environmental problem.

So if we have a drug that will make a huge amount of people healthy, what is the downside? And for the record: Ozempic affects appetite so they eat better, that is part of the drug.

Re: How long til we're all on Ozempic?

#110
post #8

This compares Ozempic with past drugs, but sales of past drugs are almost always limited by demand. I'm not sure there's much to learn here for a drug that is limited by supply. Also, this part is silly: "The announced investments across both companies total $32 billion. GLP-1s were 71% of Novo’s revenue in 2023, 16% of Lilly’s in 2023, and 26% of Lilly’s in 2024Q1. If these sales are proportional to the manufacturin…

And apparently the pure manufacturing cost for Ozempic is relatively low:

> the active drug in Ozempic can be produced for about 29 cents for a month’s supply, or 7.2 cents for a typical weekly dose, the research found. It’s not cheap to make — semaglutide costs over $70,000 per kilogram. But only a tiny quantity of the drug is used in each weekly dose.

> https://fortune.com/europe/2024/03/28/ozempic-maker-novo-nor...

I think this makes it likely that strongly ramping up the supply is not a major problem.

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