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Tesla Robotaxi

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#501

Post by baxtr »

lowkey wrote: post #458
wg0 wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon has almost no credibility left for what he says. It's basically just a website at the moment with bunch of 3D renders which you too could get done from a web shop. Tesla has nothing new to offer and competition is catching up, EV adoption slowing down and such. If I had, I would gradually drop Tesla stock because it's going to go downhill if not rock bottom from here.

- I believe he can launch rockets into space and land them on their own footprint. - I believe he can revolutionize auto manufacturing and disrupt a 100 year old industry replacing fossil-fuel burning dinosaurs with clean electric vehicles that outperform them and that appeal to the general public - I believe he can allow quadrapelegics to interact with the world in ways never thought possible - I believe he can, to…

I really wonder if he is not focused enough

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#502

Post by haspok »

lenkite wrote: post #500
fabbari wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you please cite sources on this? Just looking at Rivian [1] they delivered 37,396 units this year alone. Tesla doesn't officially publish numbers, but the Cybertruck recall from few weeks ago tells us around 27,185 total [2]. I know that the July sales were high, over 5172 units [3], but that's a single month. And just to put everything in perspective here: over 13 million trucks were sold in the States in July…

Here is one source from the Verge: Tesla sold more Cybertrucks than almost all other EV trucks combined https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/18/24247985/tesla-cybertruck... The Cybertruck was the best-selling $100,000+ vehicle in July https://qz.com/tesla-cybertruck-is-selling-better-than-any-o...

"Tesla sold more Cybertrucks than almost all other EV trucks combined" - in July, you forgot to add

"The Cybertruck was the best-selling $100,000+ vehicle in July" - there you go

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#503

Post by ETH_start »

porbelm wrote: post #472
lowkey wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- I believe he can launch rockets into space and land them on their own footprint. - I believe he can revolutionize auto manufacturing and disrupt a 100 year old industry replacing fossil-fuel burning dinosaurs with clean electric vehicles that outperform them and that appeal to the general public - I believe he can allow quadrapelegics to interact with the world in ways never thought possible - I believe he can, to…

[flagged]

If you can't recognize his contributions I think you're too emotionally attached to the question.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#504

Post by ETH_start »

dom96 wrote: post #478
lowkey wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- I believe he can launch rockets into space and land them on their own footprint. - I believe he can revolutionize auto manufacturing and disrupt a 100 year old industry replacing fossil-fuel burning dinosaurs with clean electric vehicles that outperform them and that appeal to the general public - I believe he can allow quadrapelegics to interact with the world in ways never thought possible - I believe he can, to…

You’re a fool tricked by another fool who shouts loudly that they support free speech while they ban speech left and right. For goodness sake, ElonJet was banned and you can’t even say the word “cisgender” on the platform. How delusional are you?

ElonJet was a live geotracking site for private jets. You can post cisgender, it just comes with a warning.

Before, people were being banned for using "him" instead of "her" to describe biological males who self-identified as women. People were secretly de-amplified for criticizing the government policy of lockdowns. It was censorship on a whole different magnitude.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#505

Post by valianteffort »

benterix wrote: post #485
acchow wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's basically just a website at the moment with bunch of 3D renders which you too could get done from a web shop. They had 2 dozen vehicles with no steering wheels taking attendees around the venue. The bar was staffed by Optimus robots. “Basically a website”?

> They had 2 dozen vehicles with no steering wheels taking attendees around the venue. To quote a participant[0]: > After over 10 years of Full Self-Driving development, @Tesla is limited to a 20-30 acre geofenced 5mph ride on a preprogrammed, premapped and heavily rehearsed route with no traffic and no pedestrians. [0] https://x.com/realdanodowd/status/1844605093368512799

There are countless videos on youtube of people recording their experience with FSD's open beta. It is probably 90% of the way there, if not more. Anyone who thinks Tesla won't get there first is peak delusional. Hate on Elon as much as you want, but Tesla are top-tier engineering.

Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#506

Post by dplgk »

jaarse wrote: post #171
wilsonnb3 wrote: post #15

Anybody know why the autonomous taxi isn't just a model 3? I don't see the point in a purpose built two seater with no steering wheel or pedals and I don't know why regulators would approve an autonomous car with no way to manually override it.

Because that isn’t different or new enough to get investors excited. The point of this presentation was not to spell out technically how they are going to accomplish this. Agreed, a fleet of model 3s would work great. The point of this presentation was to look like a cool visionary tech company that is going to change the world, to justify that your Market cap is now larger than EVERY OTHER MAJOR AUTOMAKER COMBINED!…

So a pump and dump?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#507

Post by nikcub »

modeless wrote: post #498
nikcub wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but these are moonshot announcements that should sit isolated from the core business. The same thing that Google (ironically) did with X - which led to Waymo, which now already has autonomous taxis[0] You can't keep perpetually hyping tomorrow when the next Q is due. I have an affinity for Tesla since it's named after someone from a village my mums family is from (and who I'm named after), and I like environ…

Yeah Boston Dynamics is way better at locomotion, but their advantage in manipulation is smaller. You also won't see 50 at the same time like Optimus today. Tesla's advantage will be manufacturing. Optimus has improved quickly. Gen 3 should be better. They showed Gen 3 hands today that looked pretty good.

I don't think Tesla have an advantage in manufacturing. China today is what Japan was in the 70s and their processes are so fucking good.

You can't win on manufacturing - this is, after all, a nation that is now building Volvo's better than the Swedes did.

Tesla fell into the China partnership trap, where the gov subsidises you and you open a "partnership" there, meanwhile they take your IP and knowledge for the benefit of the state (I was in that situation in '07 with Tencent and turned it down).

Hence now $10k Chinese cars - and Biden introducing tariffs to protect local industry (including Tesla - which Elon doesn't seem to appreciate)

On AI at Elon's recent recruitment event he put X.ai in Tier 1 with OpenAI and Anthropic and didn't even mention Meta. To me, as someone who applies these models across industries every day X.ai has never even come up.

That tells me he isn't informed on what Meta are doing (and that is - undercutting the commercial AI industry).

I'm hesitant to think it but there's a ton of hand waving and investor pumping happening here. Which is a shame, because a company with that market cap can do _a lot_ better.

I wasn't impressed by a single thing I saw today. I've seen the same autonomous car demo in a closed environment at my own uni 25+ years ago. I've seen better robots from Boston. I've also seen much better presentations than someone who looked like they are reading the text for the first time.

They have the capital, the mindshare, and the means and they're wasting it.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#508

Post by BoorishBears »

ben_w wrote: post #398
BoorishBears wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't tell if this is satire, or if replicating 6 million years of evolution has legitimately become handwave material for Elon's supporters...

I don't know if you've tried this recently, but take a photo of something on your phone and put it into an AI. There may even be an AI built into your photo library app.

The fact I work on self-driving cars makes me a tiny bit more of a realist than someone who thinks CLIP is proof of what AI can and can't do...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#509

Post by benterix »

valianteffort wrote: post #505
benterix wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They had 2 dozen vehicles with no steering wheels taking attendees around the venue. To quote a participant[0]: > After over 10 years of Full Self-Driving development, @Tesla is limited to a 20-30 acre geofenced 5mph ride on a preprogrammed, premapped and heavily rehearsed route with no traffic and no pedestrians. [0] https://x.com/realdanodowd/status/1844605093368512799

There are countless videos on youtube of people recording their experience with FSD's open beta. It is probably 90% of the way there, if not more. Anyone who thinks Tesla won't get there first is peak delusional. Hate on Elon as much as you want, but Tesla are top-tier engineering. Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao

> Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao

It's not "talk shit about Tesla's engineers", it's just a very hard problem to solve. It's easy to get it "most of the time" but extremely difficult to finish it. It's obvious it will take decades, not years to get us there. Whereas Musk insists he will solve it "this year", every year from 2014.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#510

Post by TrainedMonkey »

y1n0 wrote: post #166
TrainedMonkey wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no first hand knowledge here, but thinking from first principles. From Robotaxi fleet perspective you want autonomous maintenance, cleaning, charging, and lowest cost. From Robotaxi user perspective you want climate / music / entertaiment / safety. So the idea for robot taxi is that it should be better than model 3 in some or all of those dimensions. Now speculating for the moment, from Elon perspective you pr…

From what “first principles” are you thinking?

As a rough draft I went with:

1. What is important for a vehicle optimized for large scale robotaxi fleet from manufacturing and operational perspectives.

2. What is important for me if I get an into autonomous vehicle.

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