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Tesla Robotaxi

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#491

Post by ben_w »

lowkey wrote: post #458
wg0 wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon has almost no credibility left for what he says. It's basically just a website at the moment with bunch of 3D renders which you too could get done from a web shop. Tesla has nothing new to offer and competition is catching up, EV adoption slowing down and such. If I had, I would gradually drop Tesla stock because it's going to go downhill if not rock bottom from here.

- I believe he can launch rockets into space and land them on their own footprint. - I believe he can revolutionize auto manufacturing and disrupt a 100 year old industry replacing fossil-fuel burning dinosaurs with clean electric vehicles that outperform them and that appeal to the general public - I believe he can allow quadrapelegics to interact with the world in ways never thought possible - I believe he can, to…

Mostly I agree, modulo "he knows how to make teams to do XYZ", which I'm happy to count for the same reason I'm happy to blame him personally when those teams he's ordering around do something I don't like:

> I believe he can, to a great degree, restore free speech on social media even if it is messy and imperfect at times

I strongly disagree with this.

Even if I ignore the proxy of all the investors writing off their buy-out loans by 75%, even if I ignore that when people link me to random threads I can only see the specific one linked and not any reply because of an invisible paywall^w account-wall, even if I ignore that loading a random tweet now often takes 26 seconds or more (yes, I did just record my screen to get that number), even if I ignore that undesirable stories can be buried by an avalanche of alternative narratives and not just by censoring the truth…

There's still the problem of Musk intervening politically in ways that, although totally legal, are exactly the kind of thing he was complaining about before the takeover: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_suspensions

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#492

Post by ben_w »

forgot-im-old wrote: post #471
lowkey wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- I believe he can launch rockets into space and land them on their own footprint. - I believe he can revolutionize auto manufacturing and disrupt a 100 year old industry replacing fossil-fuel burning dinosaurs with clean electric vehicles that outperform them and that appeal to the general public - I believe he can allow quadrapelegics to interact with the world in ways never thought possible - I believe he can, to…

[flagged]

Nobody else did, though.

That's the reason he was able to get this rich with SpaceX and not stall sooner — most of the other space companies were (and in the west, still are) busy scratching backs rather than developing successful products.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#493

Post by kalleboo »

davedx wrote: post #318
rapsey wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymos however need thousands of dollars of hardware to achieve this and only work in limited areas. Tesla's bet is a lot more risky but also with a lot more potential.

My Tesla still beeps at me because it thinks I'm about to drive into pedestrians or parked cars because there's a bend in the road. I honestly think at this point Tesla's FSD AI is way, way overfitting on a few US cities.

It's way overfitting on the routes that the CEO and a few YouTubers drive. https://electrek.co/2024/07/09/tesla-insiders-say-elon-optim...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#494

Post by jakeogh »

disillusioned wrote: post #486
jakeogh wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good. They don't work, and they wont work. We are a decade into the hype cycle on 'cars that have self' and the proponents are stuck pretending that their best case demo, which is always going to crash into stupid stuff that a human would easily understand (in it's highly tested and constrained route) has 'self' to preserve.

This is a reductive and far-too-pessimistic take when Waymo is completing more than 14,000 driverless trips per DAY and has completed over 15 million miles of driverless trips. That's not a "best case demo": it's a real system, working in real world environments, and even if they're "constrained" (and go ahead and look at the Phoenix service area and tell me how constrained it really is), they are functioning, now, t…

It wouldnt work even if you asserted a perfect record. The result is taking a robust fault (emergency) tolerant system and converting it into a fragile one without so much as a steering wheel.

Your Waymo will stop when you dont want to.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#495

Post by d3bunker »

The event was objectively smoke in the eyes:

- days ago I was reading an article stating that Tesla didn't apply yet for the license to operate autonomous vehicles in the streets. Competitor had their licenses in 8 months or more. I think this is a critical factor to respect the deadline of December 2025;

- Just another risible demo in a controlled environment, a movie set: no real life scenario able to demonstrate the effectiveness of the robotaxi technology. This for something should be in exercise before 2025 ends is and indicator that the tech is not ready. "Only cameras" approach IMHO just won't work.

- the presentation images suggested that robotaxis should substitute public transport. This not only is bullshit for a number of reasons, it also can influence public transport politics like with the other bullshit technology called Hyperloop that was accepted as the future of transportation by short sighted administrators;

- Wireless recharge : oh please ! Apart technical consideration could raise doubt on the smartness of that approach, they really are saying they can create a network of wireless recharge points before the robotaxi go in exercise next year ?

- Robobus : wow ! What about electric tram ? I see a pattern here , step by step, they are demonstrating that the real electric revolution is electric public transport, not that electric robot limousine that are a viable and cost effective public transport alternative only in the mind of a megalomaniac billionaire !

- Men, you don't believe this is bullshit ? let's take appointment here December 31st , 2025, to discuss the status of the robotaxi.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#496

Post by jauntywundrkind »

IshKebab wrote: post #426
fragmede wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're going to have to be more specific with your necessary specs, there are $100 360° hobbyist LIDAR sensors on Amazon.

No there aren't. Those use triangulation. LIDAR is time-of-flight. They also only scan a single rotating point which is only sufficient for simple robots like vacuum cleaners.

Intel's L515 lidar from 2020 was Good indoor range but not really useful outdoors at any range. Scaling to higher power is indeed a challenge, but that Intel delivered so so much in 2020 for such a small price is awesome, shows potential.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#497

Post by ben_w »

porbelm wrote: post #472
lowkey wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- I believe he can launch rockets into space and land them on their own footprint. - I believe he can revolutionize auto manufacturing and disrupt a 100 year old industry replacing fossil-fuel burning dinosaurs with clean electric vehicles that outperform them and that appeal to the general public - I believe he can allow quadrapelegics to interact with the world in ways never thought possible - I believe he can, to…

[flagged]

> HE can do nothing of the sort because he is an idiot with very few real skills.

Management is a real skill. Salesmanship is also a real skill. I may not approve of the showboating, but drumming up enthusiasm for a future that most consider to be fantasy, was a necessary (though not sufficient) part of building an electric car company in an era when most people thought hydrogen was the future and that "electric car" meant "a milk float" and, if they had memories of any real personal electric vehicle, those memories would have been of the failure of the Sinclair C5:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milk_float

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinclair_C5

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#498

Post by modeless »

nikcub wrote: post #474
modeless wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that Tesla's biggest mistake was doing Cybertruck before the $25k car. But if they solve autonomy and/or succeed with Optimus then everything else becomes irrelevant.

I agree, but these are moonshot announcements that should sit isolated from the core business. The same thing that Google (ironically) did with X - which led to Waymo, which now already has autonomous taxis[0] You can't keep perpetually hyping tomorrow when the next Q is due. I have an affinity for Tesla since it's named after someone from a village my mums family is from (and who I'm named after), and I like environ…

Yeah Boston Dynamics is way better at locomotion, but their advantage in manipulation is smaller. You also won't see 50 at the same time like Optimus today. Tesla's advantage will be manufacturing.

Optimus has improved quickly. Gen 3 should be better. They showed Gen 3 hands today that looked pretty good.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#499

Post by p_l »

threeseed wrote: post #448
aaronblohowiak wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

can I get a lidar for 1k like the cars use?

There is no reliable FSD implementation on any car right now so it's kind of an irrelevant question. The more relevant one is what will happen first. Tesla figuring out how to make vision only work on their existing hardware. Or the price of LiDAR coming down.

On-chip lidars are coming to automotive sector currently

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#500

Post by lenkite »

fabbari wrote: post #424
reissbaker wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by "stupid enough to build it?" It's the best-selling electric truck in terms of shipped units, by a large margin (approximately equal to every other EV truck manufacturer combined, including Ford's electric F-150).

Could you please cite sources on this? Just looking at Rivian [1] they delivered 37,396 units this year alone. Tesla doesn't officially publish numbers, but the Cybertruck recall from few weeks ago tells us around 27,185 total [2]. I know that the July sales were high, over 5172 units [3], but that's a single month. And just to put everything in perspective here: over 13 million trucks were sold in the States in July…

Here is one source from the Verge:

Tesla sold more Cybertrucks than almost all other EV trucks combined

https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/18/24247985/tesla-cybertruck...

The Cybertruck was the best-selling $100,000+ vehicle in July

https://qz.com/tesla-cybertruck-is-selling-better-than-any-o...

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