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Tesla Robotaxi

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#441

Post by modeless »

nikcub wrote: post #428
modeless wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has no rear window and wacky doors and only two seats. It would not sell. It's purpose built as an autonomous taxi, where those choices make perfect sense. They are also doing a $25k car, they just aren't revealing it today.

This is why I want a pragmatic operational industry expert CEO[0] for Tesla, in the same way Shotwell is for SpaceX. Announce and do the far stuff, but at the same time ship the near things that people want. A pragmatic auto CEO would have had that $25k car moving already. A pragmatic industry CEO also wouldn't have such a large event without a call-to-action. If they had a "reserve now for Feb 2025 delivery" button…

I agree that Tesla's biggest mistake was doing Cybertruck before the $25k car. But if they solve autonomy and/or succeed with Optimus then everything else becomes irrelevant.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#443

Post by threeseed »

narrator wrote: post #393
malermeister wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Reading any HN thread connected to Musk is so annoying because all the political obsessives come out and crapflood the thread with rants about "manbabies."

The fault of that lies with Musk who has been trying endlessly to turn everything into a culture war.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#444

Post by mrich »

wg0 wrote: post #416
DennisL123 wrote: post #242

Classic bait and switch setup. Selling people the future in 2 years time with little to nothing to show for today. Timelines will slip, plans will change, software won‘t be ready, prices will change. And that doesn’t even account for where Waymo is in two years from now, or what the Chinese EV industry is able to pull off until then. Even this underwhelming event was originally announced on short notice to prop up pe…

Elon has almost no credibility left for what he says. It's basically just a website at the moment with bunch of 3D renders which you too could get done from a web shop. Tesla has nothing new to offer and competition is catching up, EV adoption slowing down and such. If I had, I would gradually drop Tesla stock because it's going to go downhill if not rock bottom from here.

Tesla at a forward P/E of 80 is massively overvalued as a car company. You can get Mercedes or BMW at a P/E of 6, with a 9% yield. Sure, the EV market is still growing, but Tesla is not the only player. All brands now have EVs, there are both cheaper and more luxurious Chinese EVs, that's some massive competition.

The only reasons Tesla could be valued differently are FSD and Robotics, which Musk and Tesla-friendly analysts are heavily pushing. Since Musk has made massive loans against his Tesla stake you can expect that he will keep highlighting those narratives as well. A revaluation of the stock to sane levels would certainly cause him some financial difficulties.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#445

Post by jajko »

davedx wrote: post #318
rapsey wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymos however need thousands of dollars of hardware to achieve this and only work in limited areas. Tesla's bet is a lot more risky but also with a lot more potential.

My Tesla still beeps at me because it thinks I'm about to drive into pedestrians or parked cars because there's a bend in the road. I honestly think at this point Tesla's FSD AI is way, way overfitting on a few US cities.

Well my 10 year old BMW F11 does it too sometimes, it really is a stupid primitive technology with tons of badly handled corner cases. Luckily its not obnoxious and I got used to it quickly so ignoring it. But in critical situations it can take away a bit of focus which is pretty bad. Of course can't be turned off.

Nobody expected 15 year old design from BMW to perform better I guess. From modern up-to-date teslas who don't even have steering wheel but lidar is a no-no because his ego? I can't imagine it getting approved in Europe, ever. Which is fine, there will be tons of competition for this in few years.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#446

Post by vessenes »

steveoscaro wrote: post #288
mavhc wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah, look at all the terrible things Tesla has done, sell more EVs than everyone else, and make them for less cost, and include a good infotainment system in a car, what a terrible reality

Yeah this place feels like Reddit right now. Hivemind takes left and right.

Yes. Sadly, it's always been this way. Look up the response posts to Dropbox, Ethereum, .. Every few years I'm like "I think it's gotten worse" and then I'm like "I'm going to spin up some sentiment analysis to prove it's gotten worse" and then I read some old posts and I'm like "I miss jacquesm, but nah it's pretty much the same." And then I think "this is still the best forum on the internet."

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#448

Post by threeseed »

aaronblohowiak wrote: post #368
fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that Tesla would win the robotaxi race by not needing LiDAR died sometime between when LiDAR cost $100k and when it cost $1k. Now it’s just Elon being intransigent.

can I get a lidar for 1k like the cars use?

There is no reliable FSD implementation on any car right now so it's kind of an irrelevant question.

The more relevant one is what will happen first. Tesla figuring out how to make vision only work on their existing hardware. Or the price of LiDAR coming down.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#449

Post by fauigerzigerk »

pr337h4m wrote: post #330
fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that Tesla would win the robotaxi race by not needing LiDAR died sometime between when LiDAR cost $100k and when it cost $1k. Now it’s just Elon being intransigent.

Humans don’t use lidar, which clearly shows that a vision-only robotaxi is very much feasible.

Humans don't act based on visual patterns alone though. We act based on our understanding of the world as a whole, including the intentions of other humans.

For instance, when we see a ball rolling onto the street, we know that there is probably a young person nearby who wants that ball back. We don't have to be trained on the visual patterns of what might happen next.

Of course AI can be trained on the visuals of high probability events like this. But the number of things that can potentially happen is far greater than the number of training examples we could ever produce.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#450

Post by DennisL123 »

huijzer wrote: post #423
DennisL123 wrote: post #242

Classic bait and switch setup. Selling people the future in 2 years time with little to nothing to show for today. Timelines will slip, plans will change, software won‘t be ready, prices will change. And that doesn’t even account for where Waymo is in two years from now, or what the Chinese EV industry is able to pull off until then. Even this underwhelming event was originally announced on short notice to prop up pe…

> with little to nothing to show for today Although they didn't "show" it on the event, Tesla self-driving is steadily improving each month. It is now also available on the Cybertruck, and the miles per intervention metric is steadily improving. You can find many videos on YouTube. Note that this are real cars on the real road.

Where are the numbers?
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