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Tesla Robotaxi

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#331

Post by spiderfarmer »

davedx wrote: post #314
DennisL123 wrote: post #242

Classic bait and switch setup. Selling people the future in 2 years time with little to nothing to show for today. Timelines will slip, plans will change, software won‘t be ready, prices will change. And that doesn’t even account for where Waymo is in two years from now, or what the Chinese EV industry is able to pull off until then. Even this underwhelming event was originally announced on short notice to prop up pe…

Also: > “The autonomous vehicles, we’re going to stop from operating on American roads, remember this,” Trump said.

Well, apart from tax cuts for the rich he never followed through with anything he said and his voters will never hold him accountable for anything, ever, so you can safely ignore every thing he says.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#332

Post by rob74 »

ulfw wrote: post #248
strulovich wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Barring all the issues, if you did build a huge fleet of autonomous taxis - smaller, lighter cars with less moving pieces would save you a lot of money. 2 seater - smaller car No wheels or stuff - saves money on the build and parts.

Or god forbid you'd build a proper electric public transport network that can transport dozens, sometimes hundreds of people way more efficiently.

You can see Musk's vision of that in Las Vegas: in tunnels (so it doesn't disturb "regular" motorists), but still using cars (what else?).

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#333

Post by minwcnt5 »

lopkeny12ko wrote: post #220
lern_too_spel wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo was doing .64 disengagements per 1000 miles in 2015 and wasn't comfortable launching a taxi service on that. Even after 12.6, Tesla will be behind. The point is Tesla can't launch a driverless taxi service on its current system, not from SF to LA, not within SF, not anywhere.

My Tesla drives me around SF every day yet you're telling me it doesn't

No, he's telling you that Waymo could do the same thing (and better) in 2015, yet it took them 8 more years to launch a robotaxi service. So, Tesla robotaxi in 2032 maybe?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#334

Post by globular-toast »

tdb7893 wrote: post #293
zizee wrote: post #276

Who is the customer for this? Sub $30k appeals to regular people. But why would regular people want to own a robotaxi? I want robotaxis to exist so I don't have to own a car. I want someone else to own it, and I pay to use it once in a while. If this works, wouldn't just Tesla operate as a taxi company?

Wait, why wouldn't I want my own robotaxi if it's cheap enough? Unless taking taxiw is much cheaper it seems much better to own one, especially for electric cars which have less maintenance requirements. A lot of people I know like their cars and don't want to take taxis everywhere. Maybe I'm missing how it wouldn't be appealing to regular people.

I mean if the cost is the same then yeah you might as well own it, but that seems unlikely, unless you're in the car for most of the day. Owning means you'll need your own insurance and do your own maintenance (yes, EVs require this). What's the actual advantage to owning the car? So you can leave your stuff in it? Not owning it will force you to take your stuff out, which you should be doing anyway!

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#335

Post by trhway »

pr337h4m wrote: post #330
fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that Tesla would win the robotaxi race by not needing LiDAR died sometime between when LiDAR cost $100k and when it cost $1k. Now it’s just Elon being intransigent.

Humans don’t use lidar, which clearly shows that a vision-only robotaxi is very much feasible.

Birds have to flap wings while our planes don't have to. There is absolutely no reason to limit self-driving cars in the same way our bodies are limited.

When it comes to AI though, humans are using biological neural net much more capable than any today's AI you can cram into a car. So, even if one accepts your premise of targeting human performance as a design guideline, more sensors is still logical at this point as way to compensate for the weaker AI.

Also, if you read how Tesla does vision it is very different from, and i think inferior to, how your eyes and brain build the 3d map of the surroundings. If one is limiting oneself to only vision, the first thing would be to try to get as good as possible that 3d mapping, and the vision seems to be among the simplest and most researched brain functions, ie. easiest to reproduce. As Tesla doesn't seem to be doing it - only may be couple years ago they only started to elicit the 3d model - i think they aren't on the shortest path to success when it comes to FSD.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#337

Post by dieselgate »

bkfh wrote: post #282
zizee wrote: post #276

Who is the customer for this? Sub $30k appeals to regular people. But why would regular people want to own a robotaxi? I want robotaxis to exist so I don't have to own a car. I want someone else to own it, and I pay to use it once in a while. If this works, wouldn't just Tesla operate as a taxi company?

I don‘t want a car, I want mobility

For sure but the best thing about owning a vehicle is object permanence - for both the vehicle and whatever is inside it. At a certain point it’s just easier and more efficient to own something than rent/subscribe etc. Of course taxis/rentals all serve a purpose but usually not for daily use.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#338

Post by BoorishBears »

pr337h4m wrote: post #330
fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that Tesla would win the robotaxi race by not needing LiDAR died sometime between when LiDAR cost $100k and when it cost $1k. Now it’s just Elon being intransigent.

Humans don’t use lidar, which clearly shows that a vision-only robotaxi is very much feasible.

I can't tell if this is satire, or if replicating 6 million years of evolution has legitimately become handwave material for Elon's supporters...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#339

Post by modeless »

cinntaile wrote: post #315
modeless wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd have to ask him. He worked there for 5 years, maybe he just wanted a change instead of a second 5 years of sprinting to the goal? In interviews he says he is still bullish on Tesla.

There is no reason for him to burn bridges so being bullish doesn't really mean much imo. It sounds like what any socially capable person would say. To me it feels like the traditional auto manufacturers are catching up to Tesla and now they need the next hype to stay ahead of the game. It keeps the stock price high. I am aware this is not a new goal though. I very much doubt it's within reach by 2027. I'm happy to b…

Check the video here. https://youtu.be/hM_h0UA7upI?si=Tt9HqQoxceXKHmiI&t=140 He's not just politely saying he likes Tesla, he's talking for 5 minutes in detail about exactly why he believes Tesla is ahead of Waymo and will beat them to scale.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#340

Post by minwcnt5 »

lopkeny12ko wrote: post #209
spankalee wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize that Waymos don't have drivers behind the wheel, right?

You do realize you cannot buy a Waymo for your own use? You do realize Waymo will only operate in geofenced areas in select cities that have been premapped down to the millimeter? Waymo is not even remotely close, nor attempting to solve the same problem. This is coming from someone who lives in SF and takes Waymo regularly. Waymo is a cool tech demo and that's about it; FSD is a real tool that people everywhere can…

I don't know what to say man, Waymo takes me where I want to go several times a week (why would anyone be a repeat customer if it was just a demo?). My Tesla with FSD can't take me anywhere without me monitoring it.
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