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Tesla Robotaxi

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#311

Post by saturn8601 »

conradev wrote: post #290
saturn8601 wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ignored the rest of my response which is again driving the point: What does Hyundai really get out of this? Circling back to my point, this does not really explain why they are partnering with Waymo. Waymo is a rounding error in sales for Hyundai. If Waymo was solely focused on cost, then they should have stuck with the pacifica which is cheaper or gotten something even cheaper like a Toyota. It makes no sense to…

Waymo has touted that their entire fleet is now electric: https://waymo.com/blog/2023/03/paving-way-toward-fully-elect... It sure seems like their self-imposed constraint is EVs. Their goal beyond that is cost reduction. It seems like the actual key right now might be volume: “The team at our new manufacturing facility is ready to allocate a significant number of vehicles for the Waymo One fleet as it continues to ex…

Uh that article is clearly a PR puff piece timed to coincide with the retirement of the Pacifica fleet which is nearing 5-6 years of service at that point.

Again given their strange choices in the past and their backpedaling on previous initiatives (having Chrysler produce special Pacificas and then going back to retrofitting them by hand themselves, going from commiting to purchasing 65k pacificas to NOT purchasing 65K Pacificas, getting Magna to go a custom design of the iPace for them to not having them do a custom design) I dont see this as a deal that Hyundai got into without major concessions.

>The ID.4 would meet that criteria, though, and I wonder if Waymo considered going with Volkswagen.

If my theory is correct I suspect they are not getting a warm reception from many manufacturers and they have to pick whatever they can get. I'd imagine their ideal company is Toyota. They have experience with those cars from the early days, they make cars that can help minimize downtime due to their reliability and costs can be reduced. There is a reason so many taxis are prisues. Why not apply that common sense cost savings to Waymo's fleet?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#312

Post by [deleted] »

bdjsiqoocwk wrote: post #268
DennisL123 wrote: post #242

Classic bait and switch setup. Selling people the future in 2 years time with little to nothing to show for today. Timelines will slip, plans will change, software won‘t be ready, prices will change. And that doesn’t even account for where Waymo is in two years from now, or what the Chinese EV industry is able to pull off until then. Even this underwhelming event was originally announced on short notice to prop up pe…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#313

Post by i2infinity »

crustaceansoup wrote: post #68
fiddlerwoaroof wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use it every day, but HN says it doesn’t work

It's an SAE Level 2 system, they haven't indicated that's ever changing on current cars. They're even calling it "Full Self-Driving (Supervised) (also referred to as Autosteer on City Streets)" now [1] A lot of companies have Level 2 systems. That's still a far cry from full automation. [1] https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_us/GUID-2CB6080...

They have one of the best Level 2 self-driving implementations on the market. It’s so good that I don’t even question the FSD tag. That said, I would never let my family ride in a Tesla robotaxi running on the existing suite of sensors and FSD. Does anyone know what needs to happen for Tesla to reach Level 5 autonomy? I get nervous letting the current FSD handle complicated intersections.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#314

Post by davedx »

DennisL123 wrote: post #242

Classic bait and switch setup. Selling people the future in 2 years time with little to nothing to show for today. Timelines will slip, plans will change, software won‘t be ready, prices will change. And that doesn’t even account for where Waymo is in two years from now, or what the Chinese EV industry is able to pull off until then. Even this underwhelming event was originally announced on short notice to prop up pe…

Also:

> “The autonomous vehicles, we’re going to stop from operating on American roads, remember this,” Trump said.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#315

Post by cinntaile »

modeless wrote: post #292
cinntaile wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they were that close, why did Karpathy leave 2 years ago?

You'd have to ask him. He worked there for 5 years, maybe he just wanted a change instead of a second 5 years of sprinting to the goal? In interviews he says he is still bullish on Tesla.

There is no reason for him to burn bridges so being bullish doesn't really mean much imo. It sounds like what any socially capable person would say.

To me it feels like the traditional auto manufacturers are catching up to Tesla and now they need the next hype to stay ahead of the game. It keeps the stock price high. I am aware this is not a new goal though. I very much doubt it's within reach by 2027. I'm happy to be proven wrong though, driving a car is a bit tedious imo.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#316

Post by ipsum2 »

rvz wrote: post #9

What if there are humans acting as these Tesla Robots in this product demo or the Tesla Robots are just remotely operated by humans to fake this demo?. Very skeptical of this whole presentation, even if Elon and Tesla are overpromising on timelines.

It's definitely teleoperated. The hardware is there, but the software isn't.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#317

Post by stackghost »

mavhc wrote: post #262
stackghost wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What's the deal with cynical, low effort comments like this that add nothing to the discussion? People are starting to wake up to the (shitty) new reality that Big Tech created for us. The cynical nature is just the natural reaction to a serial grifter becoming the world's richest man. I don't think anyone but the most naive actually believes anything in this PR piece will come to market.

Oh yeah, look at all the terrible things Tesla has done, sell more EVs than everyone else, and make them for less cost, and include a good infotainment system in a car, what a terrible reality

The future I was promised was utopian, and instead my appliances all play ads and spy on me, and the robber barons at the top of the heap will use their billions that they got selling my personal data to advertising scum to leave legacy trusts that will continue to erode the fabric of society and increase wealth disparity long after said billionaires are dead and buried.

But sure, your Tesla has a good infotainment system so that's cool.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#318

Post by davedx »

rapsey wrote: post #225
Animats wrote: post #188

It's amusing that this was at the Warner back lot, which is out in Burbank. Not Paramount or Universal, which are both in Hollywood. It would have been embarrassing to do this at Paramount or Universal, because those are in Waymo's service area. People would have arrived at the event in real self driving taxis.

Waymos however need thousands of dollars of hardware to achieve this and only work in limited areas. Tesla's bet is a lot more risky but also with a lot more potential.

My Tesla still beeps at me because it thinks I'm about to drive into pedestrians or parked cars because there's a bend in the road.

I honestly think at this point Tesla's FSD AI is way, way overfitting on a few US cities.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#319

Post by Animats »

binoct wrote: post #186

They claim that unsupervised autonomy in existing cars will arrive in California and Texas next year (with an easy bogieman that it will depend on regulatory approval), but no details as to what exactly this would mean. It’s possible that they might be able to get an Level 3 product out similar to offerings by the likes of Daimler, Cadillac, and Ford - where on certain highways under certain conditions you don’t have…

> (with an easy boogieman that it will depend on regulatory approval)

Right. Tesla has avoided getting the California DMV's autonomous driving licenses. They have a "learner's permit" for testing with a safety driver. California DMV's regulations for self-driving vehicles mirror those for drivers. There's the "learner's permit", (with safety driver), which has much the same restrictions as a human learner's permit. There's the autonomous testing permit, which is comparable to a regular (class C) driver's license - you can drive yourself and your employees, but not for hire and not large trucks. Then there's the deployment license, which allows charging money and is hard to get. Mercedes, Nuro, and Waymo have one. Cruise used to have one, but DMV revoked it after a fatal crash.

Tesla reported zero autonomous miles driven on California roads in 2023.[1] They're not even trying. Tesla has long been scared of the reporting requirements. All disconnects have to be logged, miles driven have to be logged, and all accidents, however minor, have to be reported. Everybody else in the real self driving industry, from Apple to Zoox, does this. The ones with bad numbers grumble about it sometimes. Waymo doesn't.

[1] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#320

Post by davedx »

marsten wrote: post #172

The most interesting thing to me by far was the lack of a steering wheel on the Robocab. Without manual controls, vague promises ("puffery"?) about autonomy won't drive vehicle sales as they do today across all Tesla's models. The Robocab as shown literally cannot function (or make a dime of revenue) until they've fully solved autonomy and have convinced regulators of the same.

That's not entirely true. Waymo have remote control operators, these would have the same - you don't need 100% foolproof autonomy to operate a fleet of cars like this.

I am also highly sceptical of everything about Tesla's program though

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