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FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

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31–40 of 155 posts

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#31
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how any of this works. If you steal money from the cash register to bet it all on black in Vegas, you're still going to jail even if you happen to hit and be able to return what you took.

Yeah but what if you return 119% of what you took?

You can go to jail for stealing "nothing." Two Illinois cases I'm thinking of:

https://casetext.com/case/people-v-kotlarz

https://case-law.vlex.com/vid/people-v-haissig-2110726-88540...

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#32
post #2

The people that sold their stakes to people like Scott Galloway must be kicking themselves. Great trade. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPFiRlZaclQ

Miami-Dade County did that: sold their $17m claim (because they owned the stadium that they sold naming rights to FTX) for probably about a third: > “I’ve never worked on a bankruptcy case that got better. It always gets worse,” said Commissioner Raquel Regalado, a lawyer who now works as a broadcaster. “The idea of just getting out as early as possible seems like a great idea to me. “ Those were some expensive words…

Selling your claim, or a portion of your claim, might also make sense from a risk tolerance / declining marginal utility of money point of view, if it represented a large enough portion of your net worth.

Or put another way - if there were an investment opportunity that that had an 80% chance of 3x-4x returns in the next 2-3 years, I might consider investing 25% or even 50% of my net worth in that opportunity. But I certainly wouldn't invest 95% of my net worth.

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#33
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is not creditors "making money". Anyone who had 1 bitcoin in FTX is not getting their 1 bitcoin back, which is massively more valuable. Instead, they are getting 119% of the USD value of a bitcoin in late 2022. They are massively losing out. They are effectively getting back 33% of their assets.

aren't a lot of the FTX creditors cash creditors? they're definitely making money. Dunno what the breakdown between bitcoin and cash creditors are, but the only way to make bitcoin creditors more whole would be to stiff the cash creditors. And the FTX token creditors are making [DIVIDE BY ZERO]

One way to think about it, is that if FTX was whole, then it's 119% cash (since that's the where the 19% is coming from).

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#34

The statement is misleading. People are making 18% interest on the value of Bitcoin et al. at the value of 2022, which is less than $20k. Now that is $60k, back to the value levels of 2021. Thus, the only reason there is interest is that the cryptocurrencies found gained back their value, and the bankruptcy court gets to consider the values when the bankruptcy started in 2022, not current/before 2022 values.

You are correct. As phrased, this headline and large parts of the article are fake news. The first sentence about "profiting from the money they put into the exchange" is particularly egregious. Nobody was putting money into the exchange when withdrawals were frozen, which is when these marks are from.

The reference amount that's being "repaid" is a low quote from near the bottom of the crash. Nobody signed up for this correlation between (1) crypto price crash and (2) the exchange halting withdrawals. It was a straight-up theft of optionality.

That said, the repayments do exceed expectations. That is newsworthy. I just wish they could report that news factually.

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how any of this works. If you steal money from the cash register to bet it all on black in Vegas, you're still going to jail even if you happen to hit and be able to return what you took.

That is, coincidentally, how we still have FedEx. Fred Smith taking the company's last $5K to Vegas and luckily winning $27,000. Mind you at that point, pilots were putting fuel on their personal credit cards, payroll had been bouncing for weeks. (Funnily, some people here think he did the right thing.)

That’s the story he likes to tell and it’s repeated uncritically often enough, but I find it stupendously unlikely to be reality that he converted 5k into 27k playing blackjack of all games. And that that one week was enough to see him through to close 11m at an unspecified future date after having burned 80m getting the company up and running.

I chalk it up more to myth building and would love to see a reporter that dug into that story to know what actually happened.

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#36

The statement is misleading. People are making 18% interest on the value of Bitcoin et al. at the value of 2022, which is less than $20k. Now that is $60k, back to the value levels of 2021. Thus, the only reason there is interest is that the cryptocurrencies found gained back their value, and the bankruptcy court gets to consider the values when the bankruptcy started in 2022, not current/before 2022 values.

I'm seeing a pattern of misleading headlines wrt this. My guess is that it is PR at work to convince public that FTX was a victimless crime - this is to help SBF avoid his full sentence.

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#37
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it not also have to do with the increased value of some of the other assets FTX bought? I believe SBF invested a large amount in some AI companies.

The article mentions a stake in Anthropic that was sold for $900m, while it owes creditors $11.2b, so nah it wasn't enough to make a dent unless there were MANY other smaller investments that collectively added up to $3b on top of that.

Not to be pedantic but I think 8% of something can be considered a dent.

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#38
post #3

Dumb question: why are creditors getting paid more than they are owed?

Interest. From the article: > "We are poised to return 100% of bankruptcy claim amounts plus interest for non-governmental creditors." For what it's worth, the article also points out that Bitcoin has gone up 260% since FTX's failure, so if FTX had not collapsed, somebody hodling their BTC there might have earned 260% instead of 19%.

But this assumes the person wouldn’t have withdrawn their funds, during that period of time.

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#39

The statement is misleading. People are making 18% interest on the value of Bitcoin et al. at the value of 2022, which is less than $20k. Now that is $60k, back to the value levels of 2021. Thus, the only reason there is interest is that the cryptocurrencies found gained back their value, and the bankruptcy court gets to consider the values when the bankruptcy started in 2022, not current/before 2022 values.

I'm seeing a pattern of misleading headlines wrt this. My guess is that it is PR at work to convince public that FTX was a victimless crime - this is to help SBF avoid his full sentence.

There's definitely a pattern, but I don't want to assume motive. I doubt SBF will get his retrial, but still, it's good PR for a lot of people -- for Effective Altruism, for Stanford, for Sequoia -- whose reputations took a hit here. It's even good PR for the bankruptcy team to say that they got full restitution. And for the journalists, of course, it's a headline that really pops.

But sitting here, we can't really know why we're being lied to. All we can do is take note of the lies, and of who's repeating them.

Re: FTX creditors will make money on bankruptcy

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not sure. I don't think so but I haven't had time to read how the equities will get liquidated.

It literally says they made 900M off Anthropic in the article

Let me rephrase my answer:

FTX made a good number in the double digits of investments and acquisitions. (https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/ftx-exchange/recent_...)

I believe Anthropic was the most acclaimed/highest current value, and they still have about 1/3 of the original 8% investment.

a) I am curious at what discount they sell Anthropic shares right now;

b) I am not sure what is the prognosis for the other shares FTX owns;

[ c) which creditors have preference to which money pot; usually there is a pyramid. Here it talks about consumers. (Specifically those owed less than $50k.) And there is a separate matter for shareholders who are looking at getting some of the seized by DoJ proceeds. (https://www.reuters.com/legal/crypto-exchange-ftxs-liquidati....)

]

Best way in general is to read the actual pleadings: news is not the best at giving a good idea what the court is actually ordering.

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