61–70 of 457 posts
I've found that everything that works stops being called AI. Logic programming? AI until SQL came out. Now it's not AI. OCR, computer algebra systems, voice recognition, checkers, machine translation, go, natural language search. All solved, all not AI any more yet all were AI before they got solved by AI researchers. There's even a name for it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect?utm_source=perplex...
I've found that everything that works stops being called AI. Logic programming? AI until SQL came out. Now it's not AI. OCR, computer algebra systems, voice recognition, checkers, machine translation, go, natural language search. All solved, all not AI any more yet all were AI before they got solved by AI researchers. There's even a name for it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect?utm_source=perplex...
I remember the original Lisp manual describes it as a symbolic language for “AI”
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> it seems irrational to start putting in even the fewer billions of dollars now, knowing the above two points This doesn’t follow. One, there are cash flows you can extract in the interim—standing in place is potentially lucrative. And two, we don’t know if the curve continues until infinity or asymptotes. If it asymptotes, being the first at the asymptote means owning a profitable market. If it doesn’t, you’re goin…
Why would being the first at the (horizontal) asymptote mean owning a profitable market? In six months, somebody else is at the asymptote as well. If different models are mostly interchangable quality-wise, then the decision will mostly be made on price. For a market to be both winner-take-all as well as lucrative, you need some kind of a feedback cycle from network effets, economies of scale, or maybe even really br…
But you were there first. That gives you all of a first mover’s advantages plus the profits from that period to set the terms of the market sharing.
None of this requires winner-takes-all economics. And given OpenAI’s revenues, it’s unclear they need to be the sole winner to make an investment thesis work.
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I think when things get really good, which I've no doubt will happen, we'll call it SI; Synthetic Intelligence But it may be a while.
Totally agree! [1] https://taylor.town/synthetic-intelligence
Just don't use the word Champaign anywhere near a Miller Highlife in France. I think they're digging up old guillotines for that.
Edit: Your Dijkstra quote may be missing an "is":
..the question whether machines can think is as relevant
The competition for big LLM AI companies is not other big LLM AI companies, but rather small LLM AI companies with good enough models. This is a classic innovator dilemma. For example, I can imagine a team of cardiologists creating a fine tune LLM model.
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Your own GPL unencumbered regurgitations of popular GPL libraries and applications.
Except that copyright law doesn’t work that way.
Say what you want about the morals associated to said offerings, but it sounds very interesting for companies that may want to use a plagiarizing machine for copying GPL code while covering their asses in some way (at least in terms of cost).
My guess is that profitability is becoming increasingly difficult and nobody knows how yet… or whether it will be possible.
Seems like the concentration of capital is forcing the tech industry to take wilder and more ludicrous bets each year.
This is like when VCs were funding all kinds of ride share, bike share, food delivery, cannabis delivery, and burning money so everyone gets subsidized stuff while the market figures out wtf is going on. I love it. More goodies for us
Where I live the ridesharing/delivering startups didn't bring goodies, they just made everything worse. They destroyed the Taxi industry, I used to be able to just walk out to the taxi rank and get in the first taxi, but not anymore. Now I have to organize it on an app or with a phone call to a robot, then wait for the car to arrive, and finally I have to find the car among all the others that other people called. Fo…
These rideshare and delivery companies are disgusting and terrible.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would being the first at the (horizontal) asymptote mean owning a profitable market? In six months, somebody else is at the asymptote as well. If different models are mostly interchangable quality-wise, then the decision will mostly be made on price. For a market to be both winner-take-all as well as lucrative, you need some kind of a feedback cycle from network effets, economies of scale, or maybe even really br…
> In six months, somebody else is at the asymptote as well But you were there first. That gives you all of a first mover’s advantages plus the profits from that period to set the terms of the market sharing. None of this requires winner-takes-all economics. And given OpenAI’s revenues, it’s unclear they need to be the sole winner to make an investment thesis work.
Compare this to toilet paper or fuel, if AI asymptotes and everyone catches up in 6 months it will be be just like these. There are some minor differences in quality, but if a customer can buy something good enough to keep their ass clean or their car powered then they will tend to pick the cheapest option.
Sometimes it is subterfuge like ms stealing the OS market from IBM or there might be a state sponsored AI lab like so many state run industries pushing out competition, but there are a ton of ways to beat first movers.
>Therefore, if you are OpenAI, Anthropic, or another AI vendor, you have two choices. Your first is to spend enormous amounts of money to stay ahead of the market. This seems very risky though Regarding point 6, Amazon invested heavily in building data centers across the US to enhance customer service and maintain a competitive edge. it was risky. This strategic move resulted in a significant surplus of computing pow…
No, this an incorrect analogy on most points. Amazon retail marketplaces are absolutely not correlated with distributed data centers. Most markets are served out of a single cluster, which is likely to be in a different country; eg historically all of Europe from dublin, the americas from virginia, and asia pacific from seattle/portland. The move of the retail marketplace hosting from seattle to virginia happened alo…