I've found that everything that works stops being called AI. Logic programming? AI until SQL came out. Now it's not AI. OCR, computer algebra systems, voice recognition, checkers, machine translation, go, natural language search. All solved, all not AI any more yet all were AI before they got solved by AI researchers. There's even a name for it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect?utm_source=perplex...
Do AI companies work?
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Re: Do AI companies work?
#42I get the sense that the value prop of LLMs should first be cut into two categories: coding assistant, and everything else. LLMs as coding assistants seem to be great. Let’s say that every working programmer will need an account and will pay $10/month (or their employer will).. what’s a fair comp for valuation? GitHub? That’s about $10Bn. Atlassian? $50Bn The “everything else” bin is hard to pin down. There are some…
Replace coding assistant with artists and you have the vibe of AI 2 years ago.
The issue is that these models are easy to make (if expensive) so the open source community (of which many, maybe most, are programmers themselves) will likely eat up any performance moat given enough time.
This story already played out with AI art. Nothing beats SD and comfyUI if you really need high quality and control.
Re: Do AI companies work?
#43Not that physical/financial constraints are unimportant, but they often can be mitigated in other ways.
Some background: I was previously at one of these companies that got hoovered up in the past couple years by the bigs. My job was sort of squishy, but it could be summarized as 'brand manager' insofar as it was my job to aide in shaping the actual tone, behaviors, and personality of our particular product.
I tell you this because in full disclosure, I see the world through the product/marketing lens as opposed to the engineer lens.
They did not get it.
And by they I mean founds whose names you've heard of, people with absolute LOADS of experience in building a shipping technology products. There were no technical or budgetary constraints at this early stage, we were moving fast and trying shit. But they simply could not understand why we needed to differentiate and how that'd make us more competitive.
I imagine many technology companies go through this, and I don't blame technical founders who are paranoid about this stuff; it sounds like 'management bullshit' and a lot of it is, but at some point all organizations who break even or take on investors are going to be answerable to the market, and that means leaving no stone unturned in acquiring users and new revenue streams.
All of that to say, I do think a lot of these AI companies have yet to realize that there's a lot to be done user experience-wise. The interface alone - a text prompt(!?) is crazy out-of-touch to me. The fact that average users have no idea how to set up a good prompt and how hard everyone is making it for them to learn about that.
All of these decisions are pretty clearly made by someone who is technology-oriented, not user-oriented. There's no work I'm aware of being done on tone, or personality frameworks, or linguistics, or characterization.
Is the LLM high on numeracy? Is it doing code switching/matching, and should it? How is it qualifying its answers by way of accuracy in a way that aids the user learning how to prompt for improved accuracy? What about humor or style?
It just completely flew over everyone's heads. This may have been my fault. But I do think that the constraints you see to growth and durability of these companies will come down to how they're able to build a moat using strategies that don't require $$$$ and that cannot be easily replicated by competition.
Nobody is sitting in the seats at Macworld stomping their feet for Sam Altman. A big part of that is giving customers more than specs or fiddly features.
These companies need to start building a brand fast.
Re: Do AI companies work?
#44This is the Red Queen hypothesis in evolution. You have to keep running faster just to stay in place.
On it's face, this does seem like a sound argument that all the $$ following LLMs is irrational:
1. No matter how many billions you pour into your model, you're only ever, say, six months away from a competitor building a model that's just about as good. And so you already know you're going to need to spend an increased number of billions next year.
2. Like the gambler who tries to beat the house by doubling his bet each time, at some point there must be a number where that many billions is considered irrational by everybody.
3. Therefore it seems irrational to start putting in even the fewer billions of dollars now, knowing the above two points.
Re: Do AI companies work?
#45A clever AI algorithm run on rented compute is not a moat.
Re: Do AI companies work?
#46Regarding point 6, Amazon invested heavily in building data centers across the US to enhance customer service and maintain a competitive edge. it was risky.
This strategic move resulted in a significant surplus of computing power, which Amazon successfully monetized. In fact, it became the company's largest profit generator.
After all, startups and businesses is all about taking risk, ain't it?
Re: Do AI companies work?
#47This article, and all the articles like it, are missing most of the puzzle. Models don’t just compete on capability. Over the last year we’ve seen models and vendors differentiate along a number of lines in addition to capability: - Safety - UX - Multi-modality - Reliability - Embeddability And much more. Customers care about capability, but that’s like saying car owners care about horsepower — it’s a part of the cho…
The UX differences among the models are indeed becoming clearer and more important. Claude’s Artifacts and Projects are really handy as is ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice mode. Perplexity is great when I need a summary of recent events. Google isn’t charging for it yet, but NotebookLM is very useful in its own way as well.
When I test the underlying models directly, it’s hard for me to be sure which is better for my purposes. But those add-on features make a clear differentiation between the providers, and I can easily see consumers choosing one or another based on them.
I haven’t been following recent developments in the companies’ APIs, but I imagine that they are trying to differentiate themselves there as well.
Re: Do AI companies work?
#48Re: Do AI companies work?
#49the hype will never die. all the smartest people in industry and government believe that there is a very high probability that this technology is near the edge of starting the AGI landslide. you dont need AGI to start the AGI landslide, you just need AI tools that are smart enough to automate the process of discovering and building the first AGI models. every conceivable heuristic indicates that we are near the edge.…
can you share some of these heuristics you referred to?
Re: Do AI companies work?
#50I've found that everything that works stops being called AI. Logic programming? AI until SQL came out. Now it's not AI. OCR, computer algebra systems, voice recognition, checkers, machine translation, go, natural language search. All solved, all not AI any more yet all were AI before they got solved by AI researchers. There's even a name for it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect?utm_source=perplex...
On an amusing note, I've read something similar: Everything that works stops being called philosophy. Science and math being the two familiar examples.