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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#491

Post by raindear »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #414
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

One time long ago there were people living on an island who had never had contact with anybody else. They marveled at the nature around them and dreamed of harnessing it. They looked up at the moon at night and said "Some day we will go there." But they lived in grass huts and the highest they had ever been off the ground was when they climbed a tree. One day a genius was born on the island. She built a structure tal…

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#492

Post by [deleted] »

chx wrote: post #63
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

George Zarkadaki: In Our Own Image (2015) describes six metaphors people have used to explain human intelligence in the last two millennia. At first it was the gods infusing us with spirit. After that it's always been engineering: after the first water clocks and the qanat hydraulics seemed a good explanation of everything. The flow of different fluids in the body, the "humors" explained physical and mental function.…

[deleted]

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#493

Post by aniviacat »

ilaksh wrote: post #460
aniviacat wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current LLMs fail if what you're coding is not the most common of tasks. And a simple web app is about as basic as it gets. I've tried using LLMs for some libraries I'm working on, and they failed miserably. Trying to make an LLM implement a trait with a generic type in Rust is a game of luck with very poor chances. I'm sure LLMs can massively speed up tasks like front-end JavaScript development, simple Python script…

Which model exactly? You understand that every few months we are getting dramatically better models? Did you try the one that came out within the last week or so (o1-preview).

I did use o1-preview.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#494

Post by visarga »

dizzydes wrote: post #378
visarga wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? Zero sum game or fixed lump of work fallacy. Think second order effects - now that we spend less time repeating known methods, we will take on more ambitious work. Competition between companies using human + AI will raise the bar. Software has been cannibalizing itself for 60 years, with each new language and framework, and yet employment is strong.

Fair, there are probably two threads to this. New product that push that bar and can command a decent margin (and good staff salaries) as long as there's a business case/demand and feature-sets that currently command a decent margin will be available for dirt cheap prices (managed by one or two person outfits). Your comment really got me thinking, it's time to upskill haha. Aside from biotech and robotics do you see…

For example, it the core field of innovation is biotech, there will be unexpected needs in downstream and upstream fields like medical tooling, biosensors, carbon capture and novel materials. Internet blossomed into a thousand businesses, I expect the same thing to happen again - we gain new capabilities, they open up demand for new products, so we get new markets and industries. Desires always fill up the existing capability space like a gas fills a room.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#495

Post by airstrike »

eschaton wrote: post #488
airstrike wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If a machine spits out some plausible looking text (or some cookie-cutter code copy-pasted from Stack Overflow) This is not a reasonable take on the current capabilities of LLMs.

It’s certainly been my experience with the technology.

But if nearly everyone else is saying this has real value to them and it's produced meaningful code way beyond what's in SO, then doesn't that just mean your experience isn't representative of the overall value of LLMs?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#496

Post by consteval »

no_op wrote: post #489
consteval wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So long as humans can create valuable output machines can't Not all humans are going to be capable of this as time goes on. Those humans will be subjected to abject poverty. The reality is not everyone can possess a highly skilled knowledge job. Not everyone can go to college. What of them?

The irregularities of many real-world problems will keep even humans of low intelligence employable in non-AGI scenarios. Consider that even if you build a robot to perform 99% of the job of, say, a janitor, there's still that last 1%. The robot is going to encounter things that it can't figure out, but any human with an IQ north of 70 can. Now, initially this still looks like it's going to reduce demand for janitors…

We're quickly approaching how smart the average human can get, that's the problem and what sets this apparant from the historical norm.

This worked before because commonly people couldn't even read or do basic math. We figured that out and MUCH more and now everyday people are taught higher think for many years. People, today, are extremely smart as compared to all of human history.

But IMO we've kind of reached a ceiling. We can't push people further than we already have. In the last two decades this became very evident. Now almost everyone goes to college, but not all of them make it through.

The low-end has been steadily rising, that now for 20 bucks an hour you need a degree. That's with our technology NOW. We're already seeing the harmful effects of this as average or below-average people struggle to make even low incomes.

It's true that humans will always find new stuff to do. The issue is as time goes on this new stuff goes higher and higher. We can only push humans, as a whole, so far.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#497

Post by FireBeyond »

leobg wrote: post #135
redleader55 wrote: post #41

He seems to be the same kind of individual as Musk: able to bring together teams that build great things, but also able to bring about drama and ego. The whole musical chair act with profit/non-profit OpenAI, and getting rid of many of the folks that created the models they are famous for.

I’m sure he’d love that comparison. But Elon is responsible for PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX, OpenAI and now Grok. I have a Starlink antenna on my roof because of him, and I take my kids to school safely and quietly in a car that, 15 years ago, someone willing to spend 20 million dollars would not have been able to buy. Sam? An iris scanning crypto scam. I think that’s all he ever got off the ground. With ChatGPT, he positi…

Bought PayPal because he couldn't do it, was the CEO for four months in early 2000 before being fired by the board the morning after he left for his honeymoon because he'd spent most of that four months trying to throw away a working Java build because he didn't understand Solaris or Java, so felt that it should be re-written in Classic ASP because he understood that.

"Responsible" indeed.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#498

Post by svat »

wslh wrote: post #246
kranke155 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realise I shared the original article right? And OP shared the summary?

What I'm saying is that the two articles are not the same. For example, the term "moonshot" as in "Moonshot dreams crash to earth at TSMC" is specific to one article and not the other. I think it sets a clearer tone, even if one is based on the other.

Do I understand correctly: you seem to be saying that the original (NYT) article is "more insightful about the complexity and reality of making chips", and "covers more of the complexities", while the summary (Tom's Hardware) article "focuses more on personality clashes, losing some of the nuanced details" — and therefore you prefer the TH article (less insightful about the complexity and nuance), because "it sets a clearer tone"?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#499

Post by FireBeyond »

leobg wrote: post #454
jcranmer wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elon is responsible for PayPal Actually, he was responsible for the competitor that PayPal bought out because the market wasn't big enough for two companies, and was forced out of PayPal because he was pushing ruinously bad ideas.

Depends on whose viewpoint you read. He was the biggest shareholder and received $176 million when PayPal was sold to eBay. He was there from the beginning. And he wasn’t the marketing guy. Whether you like him or not, that’s all very different from Altman.

He wasn't there from the beginning. PayPal was trademarked and was at MVP stage when they merged. He was the biggest shareholder, absolutely. His operational input to PayPal was four months in 2000, before being fired. Since then his involvement was "collecting shareholder dividends".

He wasn't the marketing guy. He was the guy who got fired because his tenure as CEO was "I don't understand this Java stuff, and I want to contribute to the codebase, so we really need to rewrite it in Classic ASP", problematic on so many levels.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#500

Post by tester756 »

slibhb wrote: post #108
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

"Plausible-looking but incorrect sentences" is cheap, reflexive cynicism. LLMs are an incredible breakthrough by any reasonable standard. The reason to be optimistic about further progress is that we've seen a massive improvement in capabilities over the past few years and that seems highly likely to continue for the next few (at least). It's not going to scale forever, but it seems pretty clear that when the dust se…

>"Plausible-looking but incorrect sentences" is cheap, reflexive cynicism.

Literally today I used Bing and it was making up API parameters.

Code example looked fine, but didnt reflect reality.

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