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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#61
post #54
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm confident you have not used Cursor Composer + Claude 3.5 Sonnet. I'd say the level of bugs is no higher than that of a typical engineer - maybe even lower.

There's no LLM for which that is true or we'd all be fired.

If all you bring to the table is the ability to reimplement simple web apps to spec, then sooner or later you probably will be fired.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#62

Might as well share the original NYT article, since this one is a poor summary of that one - https://web.archive.org/web/20240926063521/https://www.nytim...

Sorry, but I think the original article is more insightful about the complexity and reality of making chips, which TSMC knows well, compared to moonshots by people who don't fully understand the intricacies of the semiconductors supply chain.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#63

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

George Zarkadaki: In Our Own Image (2015) describes six metaphors people have used to explain human intelligence in the last two millennia. At first it was the gods infusing us with spirit. After that it's always been engineering: after the first water clocks and the qanat hydraulics seemed a good explanation of everything. The flow of different fluids in the body, the "humors" explained physical and mental function. Later it was mechanical engineering. Some of the greatest thinkers of the 1500s and 1600s -- including Descartes and Hobbes -- assured us it was tiny machines, tiny mechanical motions. In the 1800s Hermann von Helmholtz compared the brain to the telegraph. So of course after the invention of computers came the metaphor of the brain as a computer. This became absolutely pervasive and we have a very hard time describing our thinking without falling back to this metaphor. But, of course, it's just a metaphor and much as our brain is not a tiny machine made out of gear it's also not "prima facie digital" despite that's what John von Neumann claimed in 1958. It is, indeed, quite astonishing how everyone without any shred of evidence just believes this. It's not like John von Neumann gained some sudden insight into the actual workings of the brain. Much as his forefathers he saw semblance in the perceived workings of the brain and the latest in engineering and so he stated immediately that's what it is.

Our everyday lives should make it evident how much the working of our brain doesn't resemble that of our computers. Our experiences change our brains somehow but exactly how we don't have the faintest idea about and we can re-live these experiences somewhat which creates a memory but the mechanism is by no means perfect. There's the Mandela Effect https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36219739/ and of course "tip of my tongue" where we almost remember a word and then perhaps minutes or hours later it just bursts into our consciousness. If it's a computer why is learning so hard? Read something and bam, it's written in your memory, right? Right? Instead, there's something incredibly complex going on, in 2016 an fMRI study was made among the survivors of a plane crash and large swaths of the brain lit up upon recall. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27158567/ Our current best guess is somehow its the connections among neurons which change and some of these connections together form a memory. There are 100 trillion connections in there so we certainly have our task cut.

And so we are here where people believe they can copy human intelligence when they do not even know what they are trying to copy falling for the latest metaphor of the workings of the human brain believing it to be more than a metaphor.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#64
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it was, companies like Microsoft and Apple would have acquired them a long time ago. The fact they decided to have a partnership means they have reason to believe the hype isn't real beyond what we already know today and they don't want to have to explain it to shareholders in the near future.

Doesn't Microsoft have a decent amount of ownership in some aspect of OpenAI's labyrinthine structure? Take Anthropic for a more legible example: Amazon and Google both gladly bought large stakes in it.

Why buy stakes and not the whole thing to block your competitors from making deals with them? This is big corp 101 and has happened countless times. It's even more likely if OpenAI is to be a $7T company in the future. Such an acquisition would be approved in a second... if the hype was real.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

> 20 year software engineering career is about to change I have also been developing for 20+ years. And have heard the exact same thing about IDEs, Search Engines, Stack Overflow, Github etc. But in my experience at least how fast I code has never been the limiting factor in my project's success. So LLMs are nice and all but isn't going to change the industry all that much.

There will be a whole industry of people who fix what AI has created. I don't know if it will be faster to build the wrong thing and pay to have it fixed or to build the right thing from the get go, but after having seen some shit, like you, I have a little idea.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#67
post #54
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm confident you have not used Cursor Composer + Claude 3.5 Sonnet. I'd say the level of bugs is no higher than that of a typical engineer - maybe even lower.

There's no LLM for which that is true or we'd all be fired.

In my experience it is true, but only for relatively small pieces of a system at the time. LLMs have to be orchestrated by a knowledgeable human operator to build a complete system any larger than a small library.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#68
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

I really believe that the front-end part can be mostly automated (the html/CSS at least), copilot is close imho (microsoft+github, I used both), but really they're useless to do anything else complex without making to much calls, proposing bad data structures, using bad /old code design.

Copilot is pretty bad compared to cursor with sonnet. I have used Copilot for quite a long time so I can tell.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it was, companies like Microsoft and Apple would have acquired them a long time ago. The fact they decided to have a partnership means they have reason to believe the hype isn't real beyond what we already know today and they don't want to have to explain it to shareholders in the near future.

They haven't acquired because Open AI is not for sale.

There's no such thing. Every company is up for sale, if you have the money.

Rare exceptions are old companies where the founder is still around and rejects deal after deal on pride. OpenAI is nothing like that, as the profit/non-profit drama exemplifies.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#70
post #53
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The costs will go down over time, much of the cost is the margin of NVIDIA and training new models Isn't each new model bigger and heavier and thus requries more compute to train?

Yes, but 1) you only need to train the model once and the inference is way cheaper. Train one great model (i.e. Claude 3.5) and you can get much more than $80/month worth out of it. 2) the hardware is getting much better and prices will fall drastically once there is a bit of a saturation of the market or another company starts putting out hardware that can compete with NVIDIA

> Train one great model (i.e. Claude 3.5) and you can get much more than $80/month worth out of it

Until the competition outcompetes you with their new model and you have to train a new superior one, because you have no moat. Which happens what, around every month or two?

> the hardware is getting much better and prices will fall drastically once there is a bit of a saturation of the market or another company starts putting out hardware that can compete with NVIDIA

Where is the hardware that can compete with NVIDIA going to come from? And if they don't have competition, which they don't, why would they bring down prices?

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