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Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated

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Re: Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated

#271

Post by mike_hearn »

grumpy_coder wrote: post #241
throwaway48540 wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How could they possibly do that?

They are referring to the liz truss budget.

What happened wasn't primarily due to her budget. It was due to a meltdown in the pension sector triggered by over-leverage, arguably caused by the BoE not doing its regulatory duties correctly.

Don't get me wrong, a budget that cuts taxes without cutting spending is no good. But the idea that what happened was a direct consequence of that doesn't make much sense as it had been telegraphed a long way in advance, giving the markets plenty of time to adjust. The central bank changed monetary policy a day before the mini-budget, and changes in that are kept secret until the moment of announcement. Additionally, UK spending has since blown through what the mini-budget would have created without any sudden market turmoil.

https://www.ft.com/content/4701b6ac-851e-43fd-a2b2-b38dd07c7...

Regulators failed to anticipate the dangers that borrowing by pension schemes posed to the stability of the UK’s financial system, according to a parliamentary report into the turmoil that hit the gilt markets following Liz Truss’s disastrous “mini” Budget in September last year.

Pension schemes suffered multibillion-pound losses after they were forced to sell assets to ensure that complex derivative-linked strategies — known as liability driven investments (LDI) — did not implode when gilt yields jumped as investors rejected the then prime minister’s economic strategy.

Also, Truss is basically correct that the UK needs more growth. Disagreeing on her tactics is reasonable, disagreeing on her goals isn't. She was unfortunately attempting to create growth from a position of weakness: in a party that didn't want to do anything hard like cutting spending, and with a fragile/over-leveraged financial sector.

Re: Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated

#272

Post by tonyedgecombe »

dash2 wrote: post #119
ta1243 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been to my GP half a dozen times in the last year, always same day. Last time I went I was sent for a chest x-ray, which wasn't done at the GP, I had to drive to the place and wait 40 minutes for that, bit of a pain. Main problem I see is housing. It drags the entire economy -- people are living in overcrowded, people in their 30s living with parents etc. Anyone living on their own sees all their income drained…

>I've been to my GP half a dozen times in the last year, always same day. Good for you, but I think that is absolutely not the typical UK experience.

It is for us. Our surgery has a triage system where you phone in the morning and if you need an appointment you get it the same day. I don't think it's that uncommon.

The problems are mostly concentrated in the poorer areas where they struggle to attract staff.

Re: Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated

#273

Post by cherrycherry98 »

schmidtleonard wrote: post #196
throwaway48540 wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is shady about them? Are they criminals?

Their agenda is to frame the self-serving interests of a very narrow group as the economic interests of everyone. That's shady.

Depending on the specifics, that sounds congruent with some of Adam Smith's economic theories so it's not surprising to see such arguments used, especially if some of the authors are from the Adam Smith Institute.

His whole invisible hand metaphor is about society advancing as a whole from agents acting in their self interest.

It's more likely a sincerely held belief than an attempt at misdirection.

Re: Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated

#274

Post by dukeyukey »

machinekob wrote: post #247
sofixa wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Finance in UK is indeed legacy it is mostly big old banks there is still a bit of fintech Many fintech b2c innovators come from the UK. Revolut and Monzo provide features with a UX and API that US banks couldn't even dream of. > Man blackout != energy starved, you can have blackouts cause your infrastructure is attacked or just random natural disaster, look at energy prices compare it to China or even US not even s…

I mean isn't UK starving? it can't produce enough energy, it cost is extremely high to produce anything and it can't get proper industrial/manufacture power base cause of that? (and a lot of other stupid reasons)

No? The UK's industrial base is comparable to France, and about 9th-10th worldwide. On what planet is that "starving"?

Re: Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated

#275

Post by tonyedgecombe »

soco wrote: post #109
inglor_cz wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As for Wales ... This pattern repeats itself all over Europe. Only a few places "made" the transition from industrial settings to current economy. I am from a former mining city of Ostrava, CZ. It is not completely dead, and it has been slowly improving lately, but it sorely needs something like high-speed rail to become relevant again. (The location is favourable: almost equidistant from Prague, Vienna, Warsaw and c…

You'd think that exactly because it's such a common pattern, there would be best practices how to help those communities overcome. Yet, the only pattern I see is mainstream politics ignoring it, locals struggling, and rightwing winning them over. It's so obvious that you really have to ask yourself whether there's some hidden agenda somewhere in there. Just like mainstream politics ignoring the younger generations -…

There have been projects that pour money into some of these places but it doesn't seem to make much difference. Modern economies seem to prefer cities.

Re: Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated

#276

Post by tonyedgecombe »

emmet wrote: post #42
JCM9 wrote: post #4

The UK was, and to some senses still is, a culture that strongly values who your parents are vs what you’ve personally accomplished. The head of state is the child of the previous head of state. The House of Lords is still a thing. Prestige based on family lineage is considered a big deal. In the US and other parts of Europe it’s very different. People value you a lot more because of what you’ve done vs who you are a…

I've been here for 5 years and am almost thirty years old. I still have people regularly asking me where I went to secondary school. They are obsessed with class.

I've never been asked that and I'm in my sixties.

Re: Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated

#277

Post by tonyedgecombe »

dash2 wrote: post #120

I loved this paper, it's full of new ideas. My main question/challenge would be: if the problems have been constant since the 1950s-1980s - e.g. planning and failure to build - then how come we were doing so well until 2008? Why did problems only start biting then?

The financial crisis had an outsized impact on the UK plus we topped it off with a poorly implemented separation from the EU.

Re: Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated

#278

Post by mpweiher »

openrisk wrote: post #189

> Nor can austerity or the hangover from the financial crisis explain Britain’s malaise. The financial crisis was at least as turbulent in the United States as here. Yes it can. For the UK the financial sector was a dramatically important one, more so than practically for any other major country. London was the undisputed financial center for whole Europe and beyond, a legacy of Empire days, the pound as reserve curr…

> For the UK the financial sector was a dramatically important one

The Finance Curse: Britain and the World Economy

• Outlines harms caused to countries hosting an oversized financial sector

• Argues Britain is subject to a Finance Curse, which carries many similarities with the Resource Curse, afflicting mineral-exporting countries

• Provides a narrative and framework to analyse the political economy of finance and financialisation

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/136914811561279...

The Resource Curse:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

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