Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers • Hacker News Board

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#291

Post by matrix2003 » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 4:47 AM UTC

overrun11 wrote: post #279

matrix2003 wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In most places in Europe, even $100k is considered a high salary I think it's worth adding here that US developers can have a much higher burden for things like health insurance. My child broke his arm this year, and we hit our very high deductible. I would like to see numbers factoring in things like public transportation, health insurance, etc., because I personally feel like EU vs US developers are a lot closer…

US big tech devs typically make 3x+ what the Euro equivalent does. A 4500 deductible isn't really materially relevant. I (a US dev) have a high deductible plan but my employer contributes substantially to it anyway.

IMO big tech is also a small part of the US sector (I’m not in big tech). The US idolizes FAANG, but there are a heck of a lot of other companies out there.

edit: Yes they do employ a ton of people, but most people I know don’t make those salaries.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#292

Post by throwaway314155 » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 4:53 AM UTC

layer8 wrote: post #138

throwaway314155 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My experience has been that indeed, it is detrimental to juniors. But unlike your take, it is largely a boon to experienced developers. That you suggest "tedium" is involved for more senior developers suggests to me that you haven't given the tooling a fair chance or work with a relatively obscure technology/language.

I think you’ve misunderstood the GP. They are saying AI is useful to seniors for tasks that would otherwise be tedious, but doing those tedious tasks by hand would be formative for juniors, and it is detrimental to their growth when they do them using AI.

Ah yeah you're right. In my defense, that sentence reads ambiguously without a couple of re-reads. There's a (not actually) implied double negative in there, or something, which threw me off.

Thanks for pointing it out with words instead of downvotes.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#293

Post by ehnto » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 5:11 AM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #271

ipaddr wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developers of the past worked towards the title of webmaster. A webmaster can manage a server, write the code and also be a graphic artist. Developers want to do it all. What has changed is micromanaging of daily standup which reshapes work into neat packages for conversation but kills a non linear flow and limits exploration making things exactly as requested instead of what could be better.

I never thought of a webmaster as meaning that. When I think of webmaster I think of a person who updates the content on a website using a CMS of some sort. Maybe they know a bit of HTML and CSS, how to copy assets to the web server, that sort of thing. But they are not sysadmins or programmers in the conventional sense. Maybe it just varies by employer.

They were talking about ye olden day I believe. Webmasters used to do every aspect of web development, hosting and all.

There are still people who do that at smaller companies, but you wouldn't call them a webmaster anymore.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#294

Post by smellybigbelly » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 5:13 AM UTC

stuckkeys wrote: post #141

ang_cire wrote: post #90

I sometimes wonder about whether the decline in IT worker quality is down to companies trying to force more and more roles onto each worker to reduce headcount. Developers, Operations, and Security used to be dedicated roles. Then we made DevOps and some businesses took that to mean they only needed 2/3 of the headcount, rather than integrating those teams. Then we made DevSecOps, and some businesses took that to mea…

Sadly. It is an onward trend. I have become so discouraged from this subject, that I am evaluating my career choices. Farming is a the safest bet for now.

I wonder how you view farming as the safest bet. Farming is quite challenging and the competition will drive any noob into the ground. Not just the knowledge but also capital.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#295

Post by ehnto » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 5:19 AM UTC

neom wrote: post #278

ipaddr wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developers of the past worked towards the title of webmaster. A webmaster can manage a server, write the code and also be a graphic artist. Developers want to do it all. What has changed is micromanaging of daily standup which reshapes work into neat packages for conversation but kills a non linear flow and limits exploration making things exactly as requested instead of what could be better.

This comment had me laughing pretty hard, and thanks for making me feel old. Anyway, I guess I'm a "webmaster" in theory even tho I've not worked on web since early 2000s, lamp stack handy++ tho. made me laugh because: was a Supabase meetup recently and some kid told me he was full stack, but he can't ssh into a server? I'm supa confused what fullstack means these days.

I have stopped calling myself a full stack developer, because the meaning and the role are kind of ambiguous now. Clients don't know what they can talk to me about (everything), and PMs seem to be unsure of what I can be assigned to (anything).

In fairness as well, the frontend tooling landscape has become so complex that while I'm capable of jumping in, I am in no way an efficient fronted developer off the rip.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#296

Post by JackMorgan » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 5:49 AM UTC

arexxbifs wrote: post #53

My hunch - it's just a hunch - is that LLM-assisted coding is detrimental to one's growth as a developer. I'm fairly certain it can only boost productivity to a certain level - one which may be tedium for more senior developers, but formative for juniors. My experience is that the LLM isn't just used for "boilerplate" code, but rather called into action when a junior developer is faced with a fairly common task they'…

For myself it's an incredible tool for learning. I learn both broader and deeper using chat tools. If anything it gives me a great "sounding board" for exploring a subject and finding additional resources.

E.g last night I setup my first Linux raid. A task that isn't too hard, but following a tutorial or just "reading the docs" isn't particularly helpful given it takes a few different tools (mount, umount, fstab, blkid, mdadm, fdisk, lsblk, mkfs) and along the way things might not follow the exact steps from a guide. I asked dozens of questions about each tool and step, where previously I would have just "copy paste and prayed".

Two nights ago I was similarly able to fully recover all my data from a failed ssd also using chatgpt to guide my learning along the way. It was really cool to tackle a completely new skill having a "guide" even if it's wrong 20% of the time, that's way better than the average on the open Internet.

For someone who loves learning, it feels like thousand league boots compared to just endlessly sifting through internet crap. Of course everything it says is suspect, just like everything else on the Internet, but boy it cuts out a lot of the hassle.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#297

Post by yibg » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 6:33 AM UTC

Buttons840 wrote: post #257

WalterBright wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies deliver what customers are willing to pay for. If customers are willing to pay for X, and no companies make X available, you have a great case to make to a venture capitalist. BTW, in every company I've worked for, the employees thought management was stupid and incompetent. In every company I've run, the employees thought I was stupid and incompetent. Sometimes these people leave and start their own compan…

I think those who run companies are often stupid and incompetent, and the workers are probably right most of the time. Just look at the quote again, there's lots of things people don't know when they're starting a company. It would be nice if being smart and competent was the key to success in our society, but you hint at the real key to success in your own comment--getting favor and money from those who already have…

The problem isn't that those who run companies are stupid and incompetent (which his probably true). It's that the people lobbing those jabs would also be stupid and incompetent if they were running the companies but thinks they have the answers.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#298

Post by svnt » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 6:34 AM UTC

Delk wrote: post #130

It's probably worth going a bit deeper into the paper before picking up conclusions. And I think the study could really do a bit of a better job of summarizing its results. The abstract and the conclusion only give a single percentage figure (26.08% increase in productivity, which probably has too many decimals) as the result. If you go a bit further, they give figures of 27 to 39 percent for juniors and 8 to 13 perc…

To get a better picture of how this comes about: Microsoft has a study for their own internal product use, and wants to show its efficacy. The results aren’t as broadly successful as one would hope.

Accenture is the kind of company that cooperates and co-markets with large orgs like Microsoft. With ~300 devs in the pool they hardly move the population at all, and they cannot be assumed to be objective since they are building a marketing/consulting division around AI workflows.

The third anonymous company didn’t actually have a randomized controlled trial, so it is difficult to say how one should combine their results with the RCTs. Additionally, I am sure that more than one large technology company went through similar trials and were interested in knowing the efficacy of them. That is to say, we can assume other data exist than just those included in the results.

Why did they select these companies, from a larger sample set? Probably because Microsoft and Accenture are incentivized by adoption, and this third company was picked through p-hacking.

In particular, this statement in the abstract is a very bad sign:

> Though each separate experiment is noisy, combined across all three experiments

It is essentially an admission that individually, the companies don’t have statistically significant results, but when we combine these three (and probably only these three) populations we get significant results. This is not science.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#299

Post by yibg » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 6:35 AM UTC

Buttons840 wrote: post #199

WalterBright wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're cutting headcount because they have no conception of how to make a good product, so reducing costs is the only of making the bottom line go up. The field is wide open for a startup to do it right. Why not start one?

Well, either (1) our free market is not healthy and the ability to form new companies that do better is weak and feeble, or (2) the current companies are doing about as well as possibe and it is hard to out compete them. If it's the latter (number 2), then we need to start asking why American companies "doing about as well as possible" are incapable of producing secure and reliable software. Being able to produce sec…

Maybe because "secure and reliable software" isn't what makes successful companies. Just like how people complain about tight airplane seats and getting nickeled and dimmed but continuously pick airlines that have cramped seats but are cheaper over airlines with more generous space but cost more.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#300

Post by llm_trw » Sat, Sep 07, 2024, 6:35 AM UTC

swader999 wrote: post #161

trashtester wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're realizing that 10x (+) developers exist, but think they can hire them at 1x developer salaries. Btw, they key skill you're leaving out, is to understand the business your company is in. If you can couple even moderate developer ability with a good understanding of business objectives, you may stay relevant even while some of the pure developers are replaced by AI.

This 100%. It's rare to find anyone that wants to learn a complex biz domain.

Pay me enough and I'll suck up everything about municipal waste management that any human being has ever said. Pay me 'market rates' and you'll get the type of work the market produces.